Northern Triangle Undocumented Migration to the United States

NorthernTriangleUndocumentedMigrationtotheUnitedStates AlinaCarare,CatherineKoh,andYorbolYakhshilikov WP/23/17 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JAN ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/17 IMFWorkingPaper WesternHemisphereDepartment NorthernTriangleUndocumentedMigrationtotheUnitedStatesPreparedbyAlinaCarare,CatherineKoh,andYorbolYakhshilikov* AuthorizedfordistributionbyBasBakker January2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:UndocumentedmigrationfromtheNorthernTrianglecountries(ElSalvador,GuatemalaandHonduras)totheUnitedStateshasbeensteadilyincreasingoverthepast30years,acceleratingattimes.Thepaperinvestigateswhatfactorscouldexplainthisfact,byestimatinganinvestmentdecisionmodel,usingannualdataover1990-2019.Economiclabormarketconditions(realwagesandunemploymentrates,especiallyintheU.S.)playamajorroleinexplainingundocumentedmigration.Lessexploreddriversofundocumentedmigrationtiedtolivingconditionsathomealsoexplainwellundocumentedmigration(naturaldisasters,coffeeproduction,highertemperatures,andhomiciderates).Tighterborderenforcementmeasuresactasadeterrent,andperceptionsregardingchangesofthesemeasurescouldalsodriveupundocumentedmigrationattimes.Policiesthataddresstherootcausesofmigrationathome,includingwiththeU.S.help,areessentialinreducingthedifferencebetweenperceivedbenefitsandexpectedcostsofmigration. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Carare,Alina,KohCatherine,andYorbolYakshilkhov,2022,“NorthernTriangleUndocumentedMigrationtotheUnitedStates”,InternationalMonetaryFundWorkingPaperWP/23/17 JELClassificationNumbers: F22,J11,J61 Keywords: Internationalmigration;undocumentedmigration Author’sE-MailAddress: ACarare@imf.org,CKoh@imf.org,YYakhshilikov@imf.org *TheauthorswouldliketothankAlejandroWerner,BasBakker,SaulChicasCienfuegos,RaphaelEspinoza,KangniKpodar,AntonioSpilimbergo,JoyceWong,andIMFWHDseminarsparticipants. WORKINGPAPERS NorthernTriangleUndocumentedMigrationtotheU.S. PreparedbyAlinaCarare,CatherineKoh,andYorbolYakhshilikov Contents Glossary5 I.Introduction6 II.Model7 III.DataandStylizedFacts9 IV.EstimationStrategyandResults10 V.ConcludingRemarks,Outlook,andPolicyImplications14 References16 ANNEXES AnnexI.InvestmentDecisionTheoryofUndocumentedMigration17 AnnexII.BorderApprehensionsandUndocumentedMigration18 AnnexIII.EvolutionoftheFactorsDrivingMigration22 AnnexIV.CountryResults27 AnnexV.UnitRootandCointegrationTests29 AnnexVI.RobustnessTests30 AnnexVII.DiscussionontheRoleofBorderEnforcementMeasures35 FIGURES Figure1.EvolutionofApprehensionsatU.S.SouthwestBorder/10 Figure2.FitnessofEstimatedModel13 ANNEXFIGURES FigureIII.1.EconomicFactorsDrivingUndocumentedMigration24 FigureIII.2.HomicideRate25 FigureIII.3.SocioeconomicFactorsDrivingMigration26 FigureIV.1.CountrySpecificResults:GoodnessofFitandRoleofVariousFactorsExplainingtheIncreaseinMigrationinFY2019comparedtoFY201127 FigureIV.2.CountrySpecificNontraditionalFactors28 ANNEXTABLES TableV.1.UnitRootTest29 TableV.2.CointegrationTestbetweenBorderApprehensionsandVariousIndicators29 TableVI.1.DeterminantsofEvolutionofBorderApprehensionsofNTCitizens(FY1994-FY2019)31 TableVI.2.DeterminantsofEvolutionofBorderApprehensionsofNTCitizens(FY1994-FY2019)32 TableVI.3.InstrumentalVariableandResidualEnforcementRegressions(FY1994-FY2019)33 TableVI.4.Pre-existingNetworkandBorderApprehensions(FY1994-FY2019)34 Glossary CBP–U.S.CustomsandBorderProtectionCMS–CenterforMigrationStudies DACA–DeferredActionforChildhoodArrivalsDHS–U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity ECLAC–EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean FAOSTAT–StatisticsDepartmentoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsIDA–InstituteforDefenseAnalyses ILO–InternationalLaborOrganizationoftheUnitedNationsIRCA–ImmigrationReformandControlAct NT–NorthernTriangle UNODC–UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrimeUSDA–U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture I.Introduction OvertimeasteadyinfluxofmigrantsfromtheNorthernTrianglecountries(NT:ElSalvador,Guatemala,andHonduras)havesettledintheUnitedStates,mostlyundocumented.Outofthe3millionmigrantsofNToriginlivingintheU.Sin2019,morethanhalfwereundocumented,representingthesecondlargestdemographicgroupofundocumentedmigrantsintheU.S.(CenterforMigrationStudies,2022).ThemainmodeofarrivalisundocumentedentryacrosstheU.S.Southwestborder,andduring2014-19migrantsfromtheNTcountriesrepresentedthelargestgrouparrivingundocumentedattheU.S.Southwestborder. ThissteadyincreaseinthepopulationofundocumentedNTmigrantstotheU.S.occurredagainstthebackdropoftighterU.S.immigrationpolicyandenforcementmeasures.Between1990and2019the U.S.borderenforcementtightenedsubstantially,includingdueto:(i)anincreas