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过低持续时间过长：超宽松货币政策的长期实施会产生有害影响吗？（英）

金融2023-05-01IMF罗***

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Too Low for Too Long: The Harmful Effects of Extended Ultracheap Monetary Policy by Etibar Jafarov and Enrico Minnella examines the potential negative effects of prolonged periods of ultracheap monetary policy in advanced economies. The authors argue that such policies can lead to the "zombification" of weak companies, which can have harmful effects on resource allocation and economic growth. The authors also explore the potential trade-offs between inflation and unemployment in the context of ultracheap monetary policy. Overall, the research highlights the importance of considering the potential costs and benefits of such policies when designing monetary policy frameworks.

TooLowforTooLong CouldExtendedPeriodsofUltraEasyMonetaryPolicyHaveHarmfulEffects? EtibarJafarovandEnricoMinnella WP/23/105 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 MAY ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/105 IMFWorkingPaper WesternHemisphereDepartment TooLowforTooLong.CouldExtendedPeriodsofUltraEasyMonetaryPolicyHaveHarmfulEffects? PreparedbyEtibarJafarovandEnricoMinnella* AuthorizedfordistributionbyMauricioVillafuerteMay2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Extendedperiodsofultra-easymonetarypolicyinadvancedeconomieshaverekindleddebatesaboutthezombificationofweakcompaniesanditsimpactonresourceallocation,economicgrowth,inflation,andfinancialstability.Usingbothfirm-levelandmacroeconomicdata,wefindthatrecessionsareacriticalfactorintherapidincreaseinthenumberofzombiefirms.Expansionarymonetarypolicycanhelpreducezombificationwheninterestratesareatthezerolowerbound(ZBL),butatoo-accommodativemonetarypolicyforextendedperiodsisassociatedwithahigherprobabilityofzombification.Smallandmediumenterprisesaremorelikelytobecomezombiefirms.Thisraisesconcernsaboutthesustainabilityoftoo-easymonetarypolicyimplementation,especiallyincountrieswheregrowthislackluster.Ourfindingsimplyatradeoffbetweenconductingacountercyclicalmonetarypolicy,whichalsohelpscontaintheincreaseinthenumberofzombiefirmsincyclicaldownturns,andusinganexpansionarymonetarypolicyforlongperiods,whichmayleadtoacombinationoflowinterestrates,lowgrowth,andhighfinancialvulnerability.Suchatradeoffisnotaconcerncurrentlywhenmostcountriesaretighteningtheirmonetarypolicystance,butpolicymakersshouldbemindfulofitduringfuturerecessions. JELClassificationNumbers: E52,G4;H81;O42,O47 Keywords: TooLowforTooLong;ZombieFirms;FinancialStability Author’sE-MailAddress: EJafarov@imf.org;enrico.minnella@uniroma2.it *TheauthorswouldliketothankMauricioVillafuerteandGustavoAdlerforsupportingthisresearchproject.WewouldalsoliketothankFumitakaNakamura,FuadHasanov,SamuelPienknagura,BeniaminoPisicoli,IreneRizzoli,TammaroTerracciano,VassiliBazinas,FrankWu,GianluigiFerrucci,JoseffPlatzer,FranciscoRoch,PurvaKhera,andSalihFendogluaswellasparticipantsatseveralIMFseminarsfortheirvaluablecomments.Finally,theauthorswouldlikeNicolasLandetaandDariaKolpakovafortheirexcellentorganizationalandresearchsupport.Allremainingerrorsareours. WORKINGPAPERS TooLowforTooLong CouldExtendedPeriodsofUltraEasyMonetaryPolicyHaveHarmfulEffects? PreparedbyEtibarJafarovandEnricoMinnella1 1“TheauthorswouldliketothankMauricioVillafuerteandGustavoAdlerforsupportingthisresearchproject.WewouldalsoliketothankFumitakaNakamura,FuadHasanov,SamuelPienknagura,BeniaminoPisicoli,IreneRizzoli,TammaroTerracciano,VassiliBazinas,FrankWu,GianluigiFerrucci,JoseffPlatzer,FranciscoRoch,PurvaKhera,andSalihFendogluaswellasparticipantsatseveralIMFseminarsfortheirvaluablecomments.Finally,theauthorswouldlikeNicolasLandetaandDariaKolpakovafortheirexcellentorganizationalandresearchsupport.Allremainingerrorsareours. Contents Introduction3 EmpiricalAnalysisofZombification5 Stylizedfacts5 MonetaryPolicyandZombification9 Microdata9 Macrodata11 MonetaryPolicy:TooLowforTooLong12 ZombificationandEconomicGrowth15 ImpactonGrowth15 SpilloverEffects18 FinancialStabilityAspects20 Conclusion22 Appendix24 References26 FIGURES 1:ShareofZombiesandtheShadowRate7 2:ZombievsNon-zombiePerformance8 3:ZombieshareinSMEsvs.LargeEnterprises9 4:VariablesofthePanelVAR16 5:ImpulseResponseFunctions-ZombieShareShock17 6:ForecastErrorVarianceDecompositionoftheOutputGap18 7:Sectoralzombiesharesandeconomicperformance19 8:MonetaryPolicyandBankLendingStandardsintheU.S22 TABLES 1:ProbabilityofBeingaZombieFirmduringRecessionsandattheZLB11 2:EffectofMacroeconomicVariablesontheCountry-specificZombieShares12 3:ProbabilityofBeingaZombieFirmDuringLongPeriodsofLowInterestRate14 4:TooLowforTooLong-SaturatedSpecification15 5:SpilloverstoNon-zombieFirms20 Introduction DuringtheGlobalFinancialCrisisin2008andtheCOVID-19pandemicinearly2020,thecentralbanksofadvancedeconomiesloweredpolicyrateseffectivelytothezerolowerbound(ZLB)andconductedultra-easymonetarypolicyforextendedperiods,includingtheso-calledunconventionalmonetarypolicy(UMP)operations.Theviewthatsuchpolicieshelpedtoavoidafinancialmeltdownandcloseoutputandinflationgapshasbroadsupport,buttherehavealsobeenconcernsinsomequartersthatultra-easymonetarypolicyisnota“freelunch.”Inparticular,therehavebeensuggestionsthatultra-easymonetarypolicyforlongperiodscouldleadtounsustainablecapitalflowsandboomsinhousingandfinancialassetprices,thusraisingtheoddsofafuturefinancialcrisis(IMF,IEO,2019)andsupportingweakcompaniesatthecostof

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