热门搜索：

英国的再工业化（英）

基础化工2023-05-01国家经济和社会研究所枕***

AI智能总结

Reindustrialising the United Kingdom

Purpose of the Report

The primary objective of this report is to explore two critical questions concerning the United Kingdom:

Can a lower exchange rate boost the economy's investment and growth performance?
What conditions enable the maintenance of a low exchange rate?

Motivation

Historically, the UK has experienced a significant shift from a manufacturing-centric economy to one dominated by services, marked by a decline in the manufacturing share of GDP. This shift is evident in the decreasing share of manufacturing output from approximately 35% in 1950 to around 10% today.

Relevant Literature

The report delves into the impact of exchange rate changes on competitiveness, focusing on empirical evidence and theoretical models to understand the potential benefits and limitations of a lower exchange rate. It also examines case studies of countries that have successfully navigated similar economic transformations.

Effects of a Large Exchange Rate Depreciation

The report discusses the theoretical and empirical implications of a substantial devaluation of the British Pound Sterling. It includes analysis through dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and simulations using the National Institute of Economic and Social Research's General Equilibrium Model (NiGEM).

Key Findings

Initial Results: The DSGE model indicates some initial positive effects on the manufacturing sector.
Exchange Rate Depreciation Impact: An exchange rate depreciation leads to temporary improvements in competitiveness but faces challenges due to rising inflation and unit labor costs.
Analytical Framework: NiGEM analysis suggests that while competitiveness and output may see short-term boosts, the sustainability depends on factors like business investment and policy responses.

How Can the Exchange Rate Be Held at a Lower Level?

The report explores the economic trilemma and discusses potential strategies for the UK government to maintain a lower real sterling exchange rate, considering the constraints posed by monetary policy independence, capital mobility, and exchange rate flexibility.

General Conclusions

The report concludes that while a lower exchange rate can stimulate short-term growth and competitiveness, it requires structural reforms, particularly in increasing business investment and altering savings behaviors in both the private and public sectors. It emphasizes the importance of a supportive and positive policy mix, including strategic currency management, to sustainably enhance GDP growth.

Methodological Approach

Literature Review: Analyzed existing literature on competitiveness, exchange rate dynamics, and their implications for economic policy.
Empirical Analysis: Utilized empirical data and econometric models to assess the impact of exchange rate depreciation on key economic indicators.
Case Studies: Examined historical experiences of countries that have undergone similar economic transformations.
Modeling and Simulation: Employed theoretical frameworks like DSGE models and NiGEM to simulate economic outcomes under various scenarios.

Conclusion

This report provides insights into the potential benefits and challenges of reindustrializing the UK economy through exchange rate adjustments. It underscores the necessity for comprehensive policy reforms and strategic economic planning to ensure sustainable growth and competitiveness in the face of evolving global economic landscapes.

XuxinMao,StephenMillard,PaulMortimer-Lee,HaileyLow,JoannaNowinskaandKemarWhyte ReindustrialisingtheUnitedKingdom 3May2023 AbouttheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch TheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchisBritain'slongestestablishedindependentresearchinstitute,foundedin1938.Thevisionofourfounderswastocarryoutresearchtoimproveunderstandingoftheeconomicandsocialforcesthataffectpeople’slives,andthewaysinwhichpolicycanbringaboutchange.Overeightyyearslater,thisremainscentraltoNIESR’sethos.Wecontinuetoapplyourexpertiseinbothquantitativeandqualitativemethodsandourunderstandingofeconomicandsocialissuestocurrentdebatesandtoinfluencepolicy.TheInstituteisindependentofallparty-politicalinterests. NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2DeanTrenchSt LondonSW1P3HE T:+44(0)2072227665 E:enquiries@niesr.ac.ukniesr.ac.uk Registeredcharityno.306083 ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinMay2023 ©NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch2023 ReindustrialisingtheUnitedKingdom XuxinMao,StephenMillard,PaulMortimer-Lee,HaileyLow,JoannaNowinskaandKemarWhyte Abstract Inthisreport,weexaminewhetheralowervalueofsterlingcouldleadtoanimprovementintheUnitedKingdom’sinvestmentandgrowthperformanceandseparatelytheconditionsunderwhichthislowervalueofsterlingcouldbemaintained.WefindthattheremaybeacasethatmanufacturinghasshrunktoofarasaproportionoftheeconomywithanegativeeffectonUKproductivitygrowth.Butattemptingtoreindustrialisesolelyviaengineeringalargesterlingdevaluationwill,atbest,onlyworkintheshortrunastheresultingrisesininflationandunitlabourcostswillwipeoutanygainsincompetitiveness.OursuggestedanswertotheproblemoflowproductivitygrowthintheUnitedKingdomisthatthereisaneedtoincreasebusinessinvestmentasaproportionofGDP,thoughthiswillrequireachangeinthesavingsbehaviourofboththeprivateandpublicsectors.Oncebusinessinvestmentisincreased,then,anappropriatecurrencystrategy,alongsideotherpolicytools,canplayasupportiveandpositiveroleinsupportinghigherlevelsofGDPgrowthgiventherighteconomicenvironment. Keywords:Reindustrialisation,exchangeratedepreciation,investment,productivitygrowth JELclassification:F31,L52,O14andO25 Theauthorswouldliketothank,withoutimplication,JohnMills,JordanGreenawayandBrendanChilton,aswellascolleaguesattheNationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch,forusefulcomments.Thefinalreportreflectstheindependentviewsoftheauthors. Contents 1PurposeoftheReport3 2Motivation3 3RelevantLiterature5 3.1Competitiveness6 3.2Exchangeratepassthroughanditsevolution8 3.3PassthroughintheUnitedKingdom14 4EffectsofaLargeExchangeRateDepreciation16 4.1SomeempiricsfortheUnitedKingdom17 4.1.1Therelationshipbetweentheexchangerateandmanufacturing17 4.1.2Therelationshipbetweentheexchangerateandcompetitiveness18 4.1.3Therelationshipbetweencompetitivenessandprofitability21 4.2Whathaveothercountriesdone?22 4.2.1Singapore23 4.2.2China25 4.3ResultsfromaDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)model27 4.3.1Someinitialresultsforthemanufacturingsector28 4.3.2Effectsofanexchangeratedepreciation29 4.4UsingNiGEMtoanalysetheeffectsofanexchangeratedepreciationoncompetitiveness,productivityandoutput32 4.5Conclusions37 5HowCantheExchangeRateBeHeldataLowerLevel?37 5.1Theexchangeratepolicytrilemma37 5.2HowmighttheUnitedKingdomgovernmentlowertherealsterlingexchangerate?40 5.3Conclusions45 6GeneralConclusions47 Annex:ADSGEModelofaSmallOpenEconomy48 References55 1PurposeoftheReport ThepurposeofthisreportistoexaminethefollowingtwoquestionsinthecontextoftheUnitedKingdom: a.Canalowerexchangerateleadtoanimprovementintheeconomy’s investmentandgrowthperformance? b.Whataretheconditionsunderwhichtheexchangeratecanbeheldatalowvalue? 2Motivation Asiswellknown,theUnitedKingdomhasseenalongperiodofdeindustrialisation,bywhichwemeanareductionintheshareofmanufacturingoutputinGDPmatchedbyariseintheshareofservices.ThiscanbeseenmostclearlyinFigure1,below,whichshowsthattheshareofmanufacturingoutputinUKGDPhasfallenfromaround35percentin1950toaround10percenttoday. Figure1:ShareofmanufacturinginUKtotalvalueadded Source:BankofEnglandMillenniumDatasetandOECD. Note:Priorto1990basedonSIC1980;after1990basedonSIC2007. Whenpeopletalkof‘theindustrialisedcountries’theyaretalkingaboutricheconomieswithhighlivingstandards.Industrialdevelopmenthasbeenattheheartofseveralcountries’developmentstrategies,includingsuccessstoriessuchasJapan,SouthKorea,andChina. Manyofthefastest-growingeconomiesoverrecentdecadeshaveseenrapidindustrialdevelopment.Againstthisbackground,doesitmatterthattheUKhasthesmallestshareofIndustrialoutputinGDPofanycountryintheG7(Figure2)?OrthatithasseenthemostsignificantdeclineinmanufacturingshareofalltheG7economiessince1970(Figure3)? Figure2:ShareofValueAddedinManufacturing 25 19.8 17.0 11.2 9.7 10.4 20 %ofvalueadded 15 10 5 0 Source:OECD;mostrecentdata Figure3:ManufacturingtoGDPRatio(1970-2020) 40 35 30 Percent 25 20 15 10 5 0 19701975198019851990199520002005201020152020 WorldG7BRICSUK ChinaUSJapanGermany Source:UNCTAD Thedeclineinmanufacturingmatters.Manufacturingisanimporta

点击免费查看完整报告