估算供应方化石燃料干预措施的减排量（英）

EstimatingtheEmissionsReductionsfromSupply-sideFossilFuelInterventions BrianC.Prest,HarrisonFell,DeborahGordon,andTJConway WorkingPaper23-11 April2023 AbouttheAuthors BrianC.PrestisaneconomistandfellowatRFFspecializingintheeconomicsofclimatechange,energyeconomics,andoilandgassupply.Prestuseseconomictheoryandeconometricstoimproveenergyandenvironmentalpoliciesbyassessing theirimpactsonsociety.Hisrecentworkincludesimprovingthescientificbasisofthesocialcostofcarbonandeconomicmodelingofvariouspoliciesaroundoilandgassupply.Hisresearchhasbeenpublishedinpeer-reviewedjournalssuchasNature, theBrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,theJournaloftheAssociationof EnvironmentalandResourceEconomists,andtheJournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement.HisworkhasalsobeenfeaturedinpopularpressoutletsincludingtheWashingtonPost,theWallStreetJournal,theNewYorkTimes,Reuters,theAssociatedPress,andBarron’s. HarrisonFellisanassociateprofessorintheDepartmentofAgriculturalandResourceEconomicsatNorthCarolinaStateUniversity.Hisresearchfocusesonenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourceseconomics,withanemphasisonpolicy- relevantwork.Dr.Fell’srecentworkisrelatedtoenergysystemswithafocusonrenewableenergy,emissionstradingsystems,andelectricityregulation. DeborahGordonisaseniorprincipalinRMI’sClimateIntelligenceProgram,whereshecoleadstheOilandGasSolutionsInitiative.GordonservesasaseniorfellowattheWatsonInstituteofInternationalandPublicAffairsatBrownUniversityandisan affiliateattheBrownClimateSolutionsLab.HerresearchspearheadedthedevelopmentoftheOilClimateIndexplusGas(OCI+),afirst-of-its-kindanalytictoolthatcomparesthelife-cycleclimateimpactofglobaloilandgasresources.TheOCI+ isthetopicofGordon’snewbook,NoStandardOil(OxfordUniversityPress,2022). TJConwayisaprincipalinRMI’sClimateIntelligenceProgram.HeplaysaleadingroleintheOilandGasSolutionsInitiative,workingwitharangeofstakeholderstohelpaccelerateoilandgasfirms’decarbonizationefforts.ConwayisalsoProfessorofthePracticeatGeorgetownUniversity,whereheteachesanenergycoursethroughthe LandeggerPrograminInternationalBusinessDiplomacyattheEdmundA.WalshSchoolofForeignService. Acknowledgments PrestandFellgratefullyacknowledgethesupportofOnyxTransition.WeappreciatethoughtfulcommentsfromMikeBraun,SethZimring,andDariusNassiry. AboutRFF ResourcesfortheFuture(RFF)isanindependent,nonprofitresearchinstitutioninWashington,DC.Itsmissionistoimproveenvironmental,energy,andnaturalresourcedecisionsthroughimpartialeconomicresearchandpolicyengagement.RFFiscommittedtobeingthemostwidelytrustedsourceofresearchinsightsandpolicysolutionsleadingtoahealthyenvironmentandathrivingeconomy. Workingpapersareresearchmaterialscirculatedbytheirauthorsforpurposesofinformationanddiscussion.Theyhavenotnecessarilyundergoneformalpeerreview.TheviewsexpressedherearethoseoftheindividualauthorsandmaydifferfromthoseofotherRFFexperts,itsofficers,oritsdirectors. SharingOurWork OurworkisavailableforsharingandadaptationunderanAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives4.0International(CCBY-NC-ND4.0)license.Youcancopyandredistributeourmaterialinanymediumorformat;youmustgiveappropriatecredit,providealinktothelicense,andindicateifchangesweremade,andyoumaynotapplyadditionalrestrictions.Youmaydosoinanyreasonablemanner,butnotinanywaythatsuggeststhelicensorendorsesyouoryouruse.Youmaynotusethematerialforcommercialpurposes.Ifyouremix,transform,orbuilduponthematerial,youmaynotdistributethemodifiedmaterial.Formoreinformation,visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. Abstract Supply-sideinterventionsthatretirehighlyemittingfossilfuelassetshavereceivedincreasedattentionfrompolicymakersandprivateactorsalike.Yetconcernsaboutmarketleakage—whereinreducedsupplyfromonesourceispartiallyoffsetbyincreasedproductionfromothersources—haveraisedquestionsabouthowmuchemissionsreductionstheycanachieve.Inthispaper,weestimatetheeffectsofthesesupply-sideinterventionsonglobalemissions,accountingforbothmarketleakageaswellastherelativegreenhousegas(GHG)intensityofdifferentsourcesofsupply.WeaccountforuncertaintyinmarketleakageratesandtheemissionsintensitiesofthecurtailedandsubstitutesourcesofsupplythroughaMonteCarloanalysis,drawingonsupplyanddemandelasticitiesfromtheeconomicsliteratureandemissionsintensitydatafromthestate-of-the-artOilClimateIndexplusGas(OCI+)dataseton586oilandgasfieldsaroundtheworld.Wefindthatthelife-cycleemissionsreductionsfromsupply-sideinterventionsareontheorderofofthegrosslife-cycleemissionsofeachbarrelcurtailed,dependingontherelativeemissionsintensityofthecurtailedandsubstitutesourcesofsupply.Further,targetingthemostemissions-intensivesourcesofoilsupplycouldachieveyetfurtheremissionsreductions.HowonecomparesmethaneandCO2emissionsalsohasimportantconsequencesforwhichsourcestotarget. Contents 1.Introduction1 2.DerivationoftheEmissionsImpactsofSupply-sideInterventions5 2.1.SubstitutiontoOtherFormsofEnergy10 2.2.WhenCouldLeakageBeZero?TheCaseofHotellingDynamics11 3.EstimatingMarketLeakage12 3.1.GeneralPrinciplesforEstimatingLeakageParameters12 3.2.EstimatesofDem