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重新审视财政政策的反周期性（英）

金融2023-04-01IMF在***

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Revisiting the Countercyclicality of Fiscal Policy

Overview

The paper "Revisiting Fiscal Countercyclicality" presents a novel dataset analyzing the time-varying measures of fiscal policy's countercyclicality across advanced and developing economies from 1980 to 2021. It addresses the limitations of previous studies by employing time-varying measures of fiscal stabilization, accounting for both country-specific and global factors.

Key Findings

Increased Counter-Cyclicality During Severe Crises: Fiscal policy tends to be more counter-cyclical during severe crises than during typical recessions, particularly in advanced economies.
Temporal Increase in Counter-Cyclicality: Over the last two decades, fiscal counter-cyclicality has notably increased for many economies.
Differences Between Advanced and Low-Income Countries: Discretionary and automatic countercyclic fiscal policies are strong in advanced economies, whereas they are acyclical or sometimes procyclical in low-income countries.
Expenditure Channel Dominance: Fiscal countercyclicality operates primarily through the expenditure channel, particularly for social benefits.
Determinants of Fiscal Counter-Cyclicality: Better financial development, larger government size, and stronger institutional quality are associated with enhanced countercyclical effects of fiscal policy.

Methodology and Data

Methodological Framework: The study employs a methodological framework that addresses potential endogeneity issues in estimating fiscal countercyclicality coefficients.
Data: Utilizes granular budget components data to measure the countercyclicality of fiscal policy.

Empirical Results

Degree of Counter-Cyclicality: Provides insights into the degree of fiscal policy counter-cyclicality across countries and over time.
Components Analysis: Breaks down the components of fiscal countercyclicality, highlighting the importance of expenditures over revenues.
Determinants Analysis: Investigates factors such as severe crises, informality, financial development, and governance as determinants of fiscal countercyclicality.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that fiscal policy can play a crucial role in stabilizing economies, especially during severe crises, and that there is room for improvement in balancing discretionary and automatic stabilizers. The paper highlights the importance of financial development, government size, and institutional quality in enhancing the effectiveness of fiscal countercyclicality.

References and Citations

The paper includes a comprehensive list of references and citations, providing a solid foundation for further research and analysis in the field of fiscal policy counter-cyclicality.

This paper contributes significantly to the ongoing discourse on fiscal policy, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of fiscal countercyclicality and its determinants.

RevisitingtheCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy JoãoTovarJalles,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,W.RaphaelLam,andRobertoPiazza WP/23/89 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 APR ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/89 IMFWorkingPaper FiscalAffairsDepartment RevisitingtheCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy PreparedbyJoãoTovarJalles,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,RaphaelLam,andRobertoPiazza* AuthorizedfordistributionbyPauloMedas April2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.ViewsexpressedherealsodonotrepresenttheviewsofUniversityofLisbon´sSchoolofEconomicsandManagement. Abstract:Thispaperprovidesanoveldatasetoftime-varyingmeasuresonthedegreeofcountercyclicalityoffiscalpoliciesforadvancedanddevelopingeconomiesbetween1980and2021.Theuseoftime-varyingmeasuresoffiscalstabilization,withspecialattentiontopotentialendogenityissues,overcomesthemajorlimitationofpreviousstudiesandalllowstheanalysistoaccountforbothcountry-specificaswellasglobalfactors.Thepaperalsoexaminesthekeydeterminantsofcountercyclicalityoffiscalpolicywithafocusonfactorsasseverecrises,informality,financialdevelopment,andgovernance.Empiricalresultsshowthat(i)fiscalpolicytendstobemorecounter-cyclicalduringseverecrisesthantypicalrecessions,especiallyforadvancedeconomies;(ii)fiscalcounter-cyclicalityhasincreasedovertimeformanyeconomiesoverthelasttwodecades;(iii)discretionaryandautomaticcountercyclicalityarebothstronginadvancedeconomiesbutacyclical(attimesprocyclical)inlow-incomecountries,(iv)fiscalcountercyclicalityoperatesprimarilythroughtheexpenditurechannel,particularlyforsocialbenefits,(vi)betterfinancialdevelopment,largergovernmentsizeandstrongerinstitutionalqualityareassociatedwithlargercountercyclicaleffectsoffiscalpolicy.Ourresultsarerobusttovariousspecificationsandendogeneitychecks. RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Jalles,J.,Y.Kiendrebeogo,W.R.Lam.,andR.Piazza.2023.“RevisitingFiscalCountercyclicality”,IMFWorkingPaperNo.23/89,Washington,D.C. JELClassificationNumbers: E32,E62,H50,H62 Keywords: Countercyclicalfiscalpolicy;automaticstabilizers;discretionaryficsalpolicy;fiscalmultipliers;stabilizationcoefficients;localprojection Authors’E-MailAddress: joaojalles@gmail.com;ykiendrebeogo@imf.org;wlam@imf.org *TheauthorsaregratefulforparticipantsoftheFADseminarattheFiscalAffairsDepartmentoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)forhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.AndrewWomerprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.TheviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. WORKINGPAPERS RevisitingtheCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy PreparedbyJoaoJalles,YoussoufKiendrebeogo,W.RaphaelLam,andRobertoPiazza Contents I.Introduction3 II.LiteratureReview4 III.MethodologicalFrameworkandData6 A.Methodologicalframework6 B.MeasuringtheCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy7 C.DeterminantsofFiscalCountercyclicality8 IV.EmpiricalResults12 A.Degreeoffiscalcountercyclicalityacrosscountriesandovertime12 B.Fiscalstabilization:gettinggranularonbudgetcomponents15 C.Determinantsoffiscalstabilization16 V.Conclusions22 References25 Figures 1.AddressingPotentialEndogeneityinEstimatingFiscalCountercyclicalityCoefficients12 2.ComponentsofFiscalCountercyclicality,1980-202113 3.DistributionFiscalCountercyclicalityCoefficientsbyIncomeGroups14 4.InterquartileRangeofTime-VaryingFiscalCountercyclicality14 5.FiscalCountercyclicalityinLargeCrises15 Tables 1.OverallFiscalCountercyclicality,1980-202112 2.CountercyclicalPropertiesofGovernmentRevenues15 3.CountercyclicalPropertiesofGovernmentExpenditures16 4.KeyDeterminantsoftheCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy,1990-202117 5.DeterminantsofFiscalStabilizationforAdvancedEconomies,1990-202118 6.DeterminantsofFiscalStabilizationforEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies,1990-202119 7.DeterminantsofAutomaticStabilizers,1990-202120 8.DeterminantsofCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy,RobustnesscheckwithAlternativeSpecifications21 9.ASummaryontheDeterminantsofCountercyclicalityofFiscalPolicy:DistinguishingbetweenHighand Low-DebtCountries22 I.Introduction Viewsontheappropriatefiscalresponsetoadverseeventshavebeenreshapedbytheexperiencegainedduringseverecrises.Beforetheglobalfinancialcrises,discretionaryfiscalresponsesweredeemedtoosloworhardtounwind(Blanchard,Dell’Ariccia,andMauro2010;Blinder2016),andautomaticstabilizers—built-inmechanisminthebudgetthatraisesspendingorreducesrevenuecollectionduringadverseshocks—wereconsideredsufficient.Duringtheunprecedentedglobalshockofthepandemic,politicalconsensusmadeitpossibletodeployevenmorerapid,diverse,andnovelmeasures.Fiscalinterventionsduringtheglobalfinancialcrisisshoredupprivatesectorbal

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