光伏专题研究系列一：政策技术双轮驱动，光伏装机快速放量

投资要点   40% 30% 20% 10% 0%  -10% -20% -30% -40% 2022/032022/08 2023/01 000300.SH885531.TI   请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、能源结构转型趋势明确，“光伏+储能”模式快速发展4 1.“双碳”目标正加速，能源转型趋势明确4 2.光伏发电清洁可持续，“光伏+储能”模式快速发展6 二、国内光伏快速发展，技术路线逐渐明晰7 1.产业发展围绕四大环节，我国企业占据核心地位7 2.全球装机需求上升，企业加速产能竞赛9 3.行业技术对垒升级，核心路线逐渐明晰10 三、产业链价格下行，经济性驱动装机放量13 1.复盘产业发展史，光伏发展由政策驱动型转向经济驱动型13 2.度电成本快速下降，光伏经济性大幅提升14 3.平价时代开启，光伏装机快速放量14 四、投资建议16 五、风险提示17 ........................................................................................................................................5 .............................................................................................................................5 ...........................................................................................................................................7 ...............................................................................................................................................7 ...................................................................................................................................................8 ..............................................................................................................8 ........................................................................................................................................9 ...............................................................................................................................................9 .........................................................................................................................................10 ....................................................................................................................................11 ...........................................................................................................................................12 ............................................................................................................................12 ............................................................................................................................13 .................................................................................................14 ...............................................................................................................................4 ...............................................................................................................................................6 .........................................................................................................................................11 ..................................................................................................................................14 700 60% 600 50% 500 40% 400 30% 300 200 20% 100 10% 0 0% 20162017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E 我国累计储能装机(GW) 我国增速 全球累计储能装机(GW) 全球增速 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 多晶硅硅片电池片组件 450 60% 400 350 50% 300 40% 250 30% 200 150 100 20% 10% 50 00% 20192020202120222023E2024E 全球光伏新增规模(GW) YOY 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 多晶硅(万吨) 硅片(GW) 电池片(GW) 组件(GW) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E 多晶单晶（p型）单晶（n型） 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E 156.75mm158.75mm160-166mm182mm210mm 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E PERCBSFN-TOPCon异质结(HJT)IBC其他 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2017201820192020202120222023E2024E2025E2027E2030E 全片半片叠瓦    0.40.38 0.35 0.30.289 0.25 0.217 0.2 0.168 0.154 0.15 0.117 0.103 0.1 0.083 0.07 0.06 0.0560.048 0.05 0 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021