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制裁对俄罗斯经济的影响和对中国实施制裁的教训（英）

文化传媒2023-02-01国际战略研究中心如***

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This report, "Bearing the Brunt: The Impact of the Sanctions on Russia's Economy and Lessons for the Use of Sanctions on China," by Gerard DiPippo and Andrea Leonard Palazzi, was published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in February 2023. The report examines the impact of sanctions on Russia's economy and draws lessons for the use of sanctions on China. The authors note that while sanctions can be an effective tool for influencing a country's behavior, they can also have unintended consequences and harm the targeted country's economy. The report concludes by suggesting that policymakers should carefully consider the potential impact of sanctions before implementing them and explore alternative approaches to achieving their goals.

FEBRUARY2023 BearingtheBrunt TheImpactoftheSanctionsonRussia’sEconomyandLessonsfortheUseofSanctionsonChina AUTHORS GerardDiPippo AndreaLeonardPalazzi AReportoftheCSISEconomicsProgram FEBRUARY2023 BearingtheBrunt TheImpactoftheSanctionsonRussia’sEconomyandLessonsfortheUseofSanctionsonChina AUTHORS GerardDiPippo AndreaLeonardPalazzi AReportoftheCSISEconomicsProgram AboutCSIS TheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies(CSIS)isabipartisan,nonprofitpolicyresearchorganizationdedicatedtoadvancingpracticalideastoaddresstheworld’sgreatestchallenges. ThomasJ.PritzkerwasnamedchairmanoftheCSISBoardofTrusteesin2015,succeedingformerU.S.senatorSamNunn(D-GA).Foundedin1962,CSISisledbyJohnJ.Hamre,whohasservedaspresidentandchiefexecutiveofficersince2000. CSIS’spurposeistodefinethefutureofnationalsecurity.Weareguidedbyadistinctsetofvalues—nonpartisanship,independentthought,innovativethinking,cross-disciplinaryscholarship,integrityandprofessionalism,andtalentdevelopment.CSIS’svaluesworkinconcerttowardthegoalofmakingreal-worldimpact. CSISscholarsbringtheirpolicyexpertise,judgment,androbustnetworkstotheirresearch,analysis,andrecommendations.Weorganizeconferences,publish,lecture,andmakemediaappearancesthataimtoincreasetheknowledge,awareness,andsalienceofpolicyissueswithrelevantstakeholdersandtheinterestedpublic. CSIShasimpactwhenourresearchhelpstoinformthedecisionmakingofkeypolicymakersandthethinkingofkeyinfluencers.Weworktowardavisionofasaferandmoreprosperousworld. CSISdoesnottakespecificpolicypositions;accordingly,allviewsexpressedhereinshouldbeunderstoodtobesolelythoseoftheauthor(s). ©2023bytheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.Allrightsreserved. CenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies1616RhodeIslandAvenue,NWWashington,DC20036 202-887-0200|www.csis.org Acknowledgments ThisreportwasimprovedsignificantlybythecommentsandsuggestionsofexpertsincludingMaxBergmann,JudeBlanchette,BenCahill,MattFerchen,YakovFeygin,MichaelHirson,IikkaKorhonen,JanisKluge,DouglasRediker,andMariaSnegovaya. Theviewsexpressedinthereportarethoseoftheauthorsandnotoftheexpertswithwhomweconsultedortheiraffiliatedinstitutions. ThisreportwasmadepossiblebythegeneroussupportoftheSmithRichardsonFoundation. Contents ExecutiveSummary1 1|Introduction3 The2014SanctionsonRussia3 TheCurrentSanctionsandExportControlsonRussia4 2|TheEconomicImpactsonRussia6 FinancialShockandRecovery7 SustainedTradeSurplus8 FiscalImpactMitigatedbyEnergyExports10 DisruptedProduction,HigherPrices,andLowerLivingStandards12 ADismalEconomicOutlook15 3|TheGoalsandEffectivenessoftheEconomicMeasuresonRussia17 AnEconomicTheoryofVictory?18 4|ComparingRussiaandChinaasEconomicTargets20 5|LessonsforthePotentialUseofSanctionsagainstChina23 AbouttheAuthors26 Endnotes27 ExecutiveSummary T hisreportassessestheeffectsandeffectivenessoftheinternationalsanctionsandexportcontrolsaimedatRussiasinceitsfull-scaleinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022.ItisthefirstofthreereportsassessingthefeasibilityandimplicationsoftheUnitedStatesusingeconomicmeasurestodeterChina inacrisisoverTaiwan.SubsequentreportswillanalyzetheeconomicinterdependenciesandvulnerabilitiesoftheChineseandU.S.economiesandevaluatehoweconomicmeasuresmightbedeployedduringvariousTaiwancontingencies. ThisreportfindsthatwhiletheeconomicmeasuresareslowlybleedingtheRussianeconomy,theyareunlikelytodeliveraknockoutblow.Earlypredictionsoftheirimpactwereoverstated.Russia’sfinancialsectorteeteredintheweeksaftertheinvasionbuthassincestabilized.Russia’simportsdroppedinthefirstfewmonthsafterthemeasuresbutbytheendof2022hadnearlyrecoveredtotheirprewarlevelsbyshiftingawayfromEuropetowardChina,Turkey,andafewothereconomies.Moscowpostedonlyamodestfiscaldeficitin2022largelybecauseofoilandgasexports.However,Russia’sindustrialsectorprobablyhasweakened,inflationhasworsened,andrealwageshavefallen. Goingforward,Russia’sabilitytocontinuecollectingrevenueforoilandgasexportswillbeakeydeterminantofMoscow’sabilitytoavoiddrainingitssovereignwealthfundorborrowingdomesticallytofunditswareffort.Iftheeconomicmeasuresremaininplace,Russia’seconomicoutlookwillbebleak,withRussianhouseholdslookingforwardtostagnationatbest.Russiaislikelytoincreasinglysubstitutelower-qualitydomesticgoodsforforeigngoodsandrelyonChinaasitstopsourceofimportedgoods. Westerngovernments’goalsforsanctionsandexportcontrolshaveshiftedoverthepastyear.Initially,thethreatoftheirusewasintendedtodeterMoscowfromattackingUkraine.Thatgoalfailedinlargepart becauseRussianpresidentVladimirPutinbelievedhiswarofaggressionwouldquicklysucceed.Briefhopesof destabilizingRussiaweredashedafterRussia’sbankingsectorandexchangeraterecovered.TheprimarygoalisnowtodegradeRussia’sabilitytosustainitswarthrougheconomicattrition.Themeasuresaredoingthattosomedegree,buttheyareunlikelytobeasdecisiveasbattlefieldoutcomes. TheuseofsuchmeasuresagainstRussiahasspurredspeculationabouttheirpotentialuseagainstChina,particularlyinacrisisoverTaiwan.EnactingcomparablesanctionsandexportcontrolsonChinawouldbefarmoredifficultanddisruptivetotheglobaleconomy.Thebig

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