绿色贸易促发展（英）

TheTradeand ClimateChangeNexus TheUrgencyandOpportunitiesforDevelopingCountries PaulBrentonandVickyChemutai SERVICES THETRADEANDCLIMATECHANGENEXUS THETRADEANDCLIMATECHANGENEXUS TheUrgencyandOpportunitiesforDevelopingCountries PaulBrentonandVickyChemutai ©2021InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSomerightsreserved 123424232221 ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved. RightsandPermissions ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions: Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:Brenton,Paul,andVickyChemutai.2021.TheTradeandClimateChangeNexus:TheUrgencyandOpportunitiesforDevelopingCountries.Washington,DC:WorldBank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1770-0.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGO Translations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanofficialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation. Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ViewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank. Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,figures,orimages. AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBankGroup,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-1770-0 ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1773-1DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1770-0 Coverphotos:©idreamipursue/iStock.Usedwiththepermissionofidreamipursue/iStock.Furtherpermissionrequiredforreuse. Coverdesign:MelinaRoseYingling,WorldBank. TheLibraryofCongressControlNumberhasbeenrequested. Contents ForewordixAcknowledgmentsxi AbouttheAuthorsxiii ExecutiveSummaryxv Abbreviationsxix Chapter1Introduction1 Notes5 References5 Chapter2Low-andMiddle-IncomeCountries,CarbonEmissions,andTrade7 Trade,globalvaluechains,andemissions7 Understandingemissionsfromthedevelopingworld9 Implicationsforglobalclimateeffortsandtheroleoftradepolicy12 Examiningagricultureasoneofthemaintrade-relatedsectorsaffectingemissionsfromthedevelopingworld19 Conclusions25 Notes26 References26 Chapter3EvolvingComparativeAdvantagesandtheImpactsofExtremeWeatherEvents31 Theimpactofachangingclimateoncomparativeadvantages33 Extremeweathereventsandtrade40 Disasterresponseandtraderestrictions:Implicationsfromanumericalmodel42 Conclusions48 Notes49 References50 v viCONTENTS Chapter4AdaptationtoClimateChange:TradeinGreenGoodsandServicesandAccesstoLow-CarbonTechnologies53 Theimplicationsfortradeofadaptingtoachangingclimate53Tradeinenvironmentalgoods55 Conclusions63 Notes63 References65 Chapter5EnvironmentalPoliciesandTrade67 TheCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismandlow-income-countrytrade67Greeningtransport:Implicationsforlow-income-countryexports82Conclusions86 Notes86 References89 Chapter6IssuesattheCountryLevel:ADiagnosticFramework93 Vietnam93 Ethiopia97 Notes101 References102 AppendixA.The59CountrieswiththeFastest-GrowingCarbonDioxideEmissions105 AppendixB.TariffsonEnvironmentalGoods109 AppendixC.ClimateandTradePolicyDiagnosticFramework113Boxes 2.1ModelingPostpandemicImpactsunderDifferentTradeScenarios16 3.1NumericalModeltoExploretheEconomicImpactsofCompoundHazardsandTradeRestrictions43 5.