拥有强大科研能力的行业龙头

OnewoCo.,Limited|8December2022 中国房地产|2022年12月8日 万物云空间科技服务股份有限公司|2602HK 拥有强大科研能力的行业龙头 龍兆豐 (852)39118019 lungsiufung@ccbintl.com 陈逸诗 (852)39118015 elenachen@ccbintl.com ►领先、富有特色的国资物业管理龙头 ►坚定不移的科研投资将带来长期回报 ►盈利增长势头良好 优于大市(首次覆盖) 现价:目标价: HK$47.50▶HK$60.00 (截至2022年12月7日)(首次覆盖) 领先的国资物业管理公司。万物云是一家拥有国资背景、全国化布局及行业领导地位的中国物业管理公司。不论是在管面积及市值计算， 万物云都属于行业龙头。除了规模领先及业务多元化之外，万物云的竞争势包括(1)其「万物云街道」模式革新了行业进行业务扩张的逻辑及创造新的服务场景以至于新的收入机会，(2)其领先同行的科技能力，包括其AIoT及BPaaS解决方案服务，及(3)其战略投资及合作成立的物业及设施管理服务品牌「万物梁行」。万物云属于最早期成立的物业管理公司，但也属于最后期上市的一员。故此它并没有激进地参与到上市物业管理公司的收并购热潮，从而也幸免于其后痛苦的业务整合过程和巨额的商誉摊销。相反，万物云的战略选择是大量投入科技研发，以带来长期的经济及管理效益。 交易数据 52周股价高低27.20-51.00港元 市值百万7,177美元 由流通股数(百万股)1,178 自由流通股份(%)48 3个月日均成交股数(百万股)1 3个月日均成交额(百万美元)6 12个月预期回报率(%)26 资料来源:彭博,建银国际证券预测 股价相对于恒生指数 HKD 盈利增长势头良好。我们预测万物云的核心利润在2021-24年间年复 合增长23%，与同行的21-26%相若。万物云的利润增长动力主要来自收入提升及成本控制。由于「万物云街道」模式的规模效应及万物云的很多科研投资都需要时间来体现成果，我们相信万物云的长远增长能力会较其同行更具有持续性。 首次覆盖予以优于大市评级。我们综合考虑了万物云及同行的估值水平、盈利增长潜力、及其国资背景，而采用了25倍目标市盈率来推算 出我们的目标价60.00港元。我们首次覆盖万物云并予以优于大市评级。主要投资风险包括:交付延期风险、经济下行压力、上升的经营成本。 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22 OnewoHSIIndex 资料来源:彭博 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 预测和估值 收入(百万元人民币) 18,145 23,705 31,062 36,290 41,387 绝对表现 37 –– 同比(%) 30.3 30.6 31.0 16.8 14.0 相对于恒生指数表现(%) 23 –– 净利润(百万元人民币) 1,537 1,842 2,158 2,715 3,465 资料来源:彭博 同比(%) 35.8 19.8 17.2 25.8 27.6 稀释每股收益(人民币) 1.54 1.67 1.51 1.95 2.55 同比(%) 35.8 8.5 (9.6) 29.2 30.9 市盈率(倍) 27.5 23.6 26.8 20.7 15.8 股息(人民币) – 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 股息回報率(%) – 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 市帐率(倍) 7.6 4.8 3.2 2.9 2.5 股本回報率(%) 26.0 22.4 15.7 14.7 16.7 淨負債率(%) (111.8) (70.0) (78.7) (76.0) (73.1) 截至12月31日202020212022F2023F2024F 股价表现 表现区间一个月三个月十二个月 资料来源:彭博,建银国际证券预测 Ratingdefinitions: Outperform(O)–expectedreturn>10%overthenexttwelvemonths Neutral(N)–expectedreturnbetween-10%,and10%overthenexttwelvemonthsUnderperform(U)–expectedreturn<-10%overthenexttwelvemonths Analystcertification: Theauthor(s)ofthisdocument,herebydeclarethat:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthis/herpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner;(2)nopartofanyofhis/hercompensationwas,is,orwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocument;and (3)he/shereceivesnoinsiderinformation/non-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhim.Theauthor(s)ofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthat(1)neitherhe/shenorhis/herrespectiveassociate(s)(asdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission)hasdealtin/tradedorwilldealin/tradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohis/heroutstandingrecommendation,orneitherhe/shenorhis/herrespectiveassociate(s)hasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocument;(2)neitherhe/shenorhis/herrespectiveassociate(s)servesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocument;and(3)neitherhe/shenorhis/herrespectiveassociate(s)hasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocument. CCBIGrouphashadaninvestmentbankingrelationshipwithJinmaoPropertyServicesCoLtd[816HK]andOnewoInc.[2602HK]. Disclaimers: ThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimited.CCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternational(Holdings)Limited(“CCBIH”)andChinaConstructionBankCorporation(“CCB”).InformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimited,itsaffiliatesand/orsubsidiaries(collectively“CCBIS”)donotguarantee,representandwarrant(eitherexpressorimplied)itscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoever.OpinionsandestimatesconstituteOnewo’sjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.CCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriate,butvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingso.Besidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasis,thelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalyst'sjudgment.Forecasts,projectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingencies.Readersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecasts,projectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecasts,projectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachieved.Investmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresults.Informationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegal,financial,accounting,business,investment,taxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregard.Thisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproducts,investments,securities,tradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdiction.CCBISmakesnorepresentationsont