在欧盟开发再生稀土永磁体供应链的挑战与机遇

CEPSIN-DEPTHANALYSIS DEVELOPINGASUPPLYCHAINFORRECYCLEDRAREEARTHPERMANENTMAGNETSINTHEEU Challengesandopportunities VasileiosRizos,EdoardoRighetti,AminKassab December,2022-07 VasileiosRizosisheadingtheEnergy,ResourcesandClimateChangeUnitandisalsoHeadofSustainableResourcesandCircularEconomyatCEPS.EdoardoRighettiisResearchAssistantandAminKassabisAssociateResearchAssistantintheEnergy,ResourcesandClimateChangeUnitatCEPS. ThispaperwaspreparedinthecontextoftheINSPIRESKIC-RawMaterialProjectthatisco-fundedbytheEU.ProposalNumber:20090. CEPSIn-depthAnalysispapersofferadeeperandmorecomprehensiveoverviewofawiderangeofkeypolicyquestionsfacingEurope.Unlessotherwiseindicated,theviewsexpressedareattributableonlytotheauthorsinapersonalcapacityandnottoanyinstitutionwithwhichtheyareassociated. ©CEPS2022 CEPS▪PlaceduCongrès1▪B-1000Brussels▪Tel:(32.2)229.39.11. SUMMARY RareearthelementsareofstrategicallyimportantfortheEUtosustainandaccelerateitsgreenanddigitaltransition,particularlyduetotheiruseinpermanentmagnets. Rareearthspermanentmagnetsarecriticalcomponentsoflowcarbontechnologiessuchaswindturbinesandelectricvehicles,butalsohomeappliancesandconsumerelectronics.Yetfacedwithanexpectedsurgeindemand,limiteddomesticmanufacturingcapacity,highimportdependencyandrisinggeopoliticaltensions,theEU’sabilitytomeetthefuturedemandforrareearthsmagnetsisatrisk. Recyclingcanhelpsecuresomeofthisdemand.However,permanentmagnetsrecyclingisnotyetdevelopedatscaleintheEUbecauseofacombinationofregulatory,financial,supplychainandtechnologicalconstraints. BuildinguponthelessonslearntduringtheEU-fundedINSPIRESproject,aswellasinterviewswithexpertsinthepermanentmagnetsvaluechainandownquantitativeassessments,thisresearchreportexaminesthemajorbarriershinderingtheestablishmentofviablemagnetsrecyclingchainintheEU,whilstestimatingtheextenttowhichrecyclingcouldcompensatetheupcomingincreaseinrareearthsmagnetsdemandintheforeseeablefuture. Tackingstockoftheanalysis,thereportsuggeststhatintroductionofproductlabellingrequirements,thedevelopmentofrecyclingquotas,theprovisionoffinancialsupporttorecyclingoperationsandtheestablishmentofeco-designrequirements.ThesearethecriticalactionsthatneedtobeimplementedtoensurethedevelopmentofmagnetsrecyclingintheEU. CONTENTS Executivesummary1 1.Introduction4 2.Rareearths:resourcesanduses5 2.1Rareearths:reservesandproduction5 2.2Rareearths:usesandapplications8 3.Rareearthpermanentmagnetvaluechain10 3.1Keysegmentsofthevaluechainandgeographicalconcentration10 3.2Typesandapplicationsofpermanentmagnets11 3.3PermanentmagnetproductionandtradeintheEU13 4.Creatingcircularityroutesforpermanentmagnetsthroughrecycling14 5.BarriersfordevelopingasupplychainforrecoveredrareearthpermanentmagnetsintheEU16 5.1Datacollectionandanalysis16 5.2Identifiedbarriers17 5.2.1Policyandregulationbarriers17 5.2.2Financeandeconomicbarriers18 5.2.3Supplychainbarriers19 5.2.4Technologicalbarriers21 6.AssessingthepotentialofrecyclingformeetingfuturedemandforNdFeBpermanentmagnets23 6.1Methodologyforthescenarioanalysis23 6.2Assumptionsandvariables25 6.2.1Electricvehicles25 6.2.2WindTurbines26 6.2.3Conventionalvehicles28 6.2.4Consumerelectronics28 6.2.5Acousticdevices29 6.2.6Homeappliances30 6.2.7Electricbicycles,scootersandmotorcycles31 6.2.8Industrialapplications32 6.2.9Medicalapplications(MRI)32 6.3Resultsanddiscussion34 6.3.1Demand34 6.3.2Theoreticalrecyclingpotential35 6.3.3Secondarysupply37 7.Conclusionsandpolicyrecommendations39 References42 Appendix47 ListofFiguresandTables Figure1.Locationofglobalrareearthsdepositsandoccurrences6 Figure2.REEsglobalminingproductionbycountry(REOequivalent)andChineseshareoftotalproduction7 Figure3.GlobalREOdemandbyend-useapplication(%)9 Figure4.Rareearthspermanentmagnetsvaluechainandfinalapplications,geographicalconcentration11 Figure5Permanentmagnetsmarketbymagnetcompound12 Figure6NdFeBmagnetsapplications,differentsources12 Figure7.China'srareearthpermanentmagnetexportsandexportdestinations(kt)13 Figure8.Majorbarrierspercategory22 Figure9.NdFeBmagnetdemandintheEUfromselectedapplications,thousandtonnes(left)andshares(right)35 Figure10.NdFeBmagnettheoreticalrecyclingpotentialintheEUfromselectedapplications,thousandtonnes(left)andshares(right)36 Figure11.PotentialNdFeBmagnetsecondarysupplyintheEUfromselectedapplicationsinscenario1(above)andscenario2(below),thousandtonnes(left)andshares(right)37 Figure12.NdFeBmagnetaggregatedemand,TRP,secondarysupplyandsecondarysupply-demandratiointheEU38 Table1.Sampleofinterviewedexperts16 Table2.NdFeBmagnetscontainingapplicationsincludedintheanalysis24 Table3.Assumptionsbasedonproject’sevidenceandliterature33 Table4.NdFeBmagnetadoptionratesbasedonproject’sevidenceandliterature,(%)33 TableA1.Windturbinesaveragemagnets’weightassumptions47 FigureA1.BreakdownofNdFeBmagnetsdemandforhomeappliances,audiodevices,industrialapplicationsandconsumerelectronicsbyapplication(thousandtonnes)48 FigureA2.BreakdownofNdFeBmagnetstheoreticalrecyclingpotentialforhomeappliances,audiodevices,industrialapplicationsandco