商贸零售行业深度报告：2023消费复苏投资宝典，大消费业绩弹性~估值水位全景图，数解消费各领域投资机会

Investmentguidancefor2023consumptionrecovery:earningselasticityandvaluationlevelsofconsumption-relatedcompanies Outperform(Maintain) InvestmentThesis Wefavortherecoveryofconsumption-relatedindustryin2023,astheoptimizationofpandemiccontrolmeasuresandimplementationofenlargingdomesticdemandarelikelytoboostboththesupplyanddemandoftheconsumptionindustry.Supplyside:consumption-relatedcompaniesshouldgetsufficientsupportfromgovernmentsincludingconsumptionvouches,taxpreference,andlessstringentpolicies.Demandside:optimizedpandemiccontrolmeasuresshouldfurtherpromotethedemandandwillingnesstoconsume.Weexpecttoseeprosperityofbothsupplyanddemandin2023. Weaimtobuildaninvestmentframeworktodeterminethevaluationlevels,earningselasticity,andgrowthpotentialofdifferentsectorsintheconsumptionindustry,combinedwithfeedbacksfromstockpricemovements. Weemploysixmainlogicstosearchforinvestablesectorsintheconsumption-relatedindustry:🕔Stocksthatexperiencedlargepriceretreatduringthepandemicmayshowinsufficientpricingofconsumptionrecovery.②Companiesthathadsignificantlossduringthepandemicshouldhavehighearningselasticityintherecovery.③Firmswithlowabsolutevaluation.④Firmswithlowrelativevaluationcomparedwithitspastbandshouldhaveatendencytoreverttonormalvaluationlevelintherecovery.⑤Firmsinsustainablehigh-growthandhigh-prosperitysectorsarelikelytocontinuethelong-termgrowthpattern.⑥Companieswithmeaningfulbarriersandexcellentbusinessmodelsenjoyexplicitlong-terminvestmentvalues. Weusefiveaspectstodeterminethepositionofdifferentsectorsintheconsumption-relatedindustry: 🕔Pricechangeinthepastthreeyearsvs.estimatedvaluationfor2023:welookforsectors withlargepriceretreatandlowvaluation,includinghomeappliances,goldjewelry,furniture,andtextile&clothing. ②Pricechangevs.relativevaluationlevels:welookforsectorsthatarenotfullypriced withrecoveryexpectations,includinghomeappliancesandwhitewines. ③Pricechangevs.profitchangein2019-22:welookforsectorswithsignificantdeclineinbothearningsandstockprice,includingaviation&airports,touristattractions,andeducation. ④Profitchangein2019-22vs.profitchangein2022-23:welookforsectorswithsignificantdeclineinearningsandhighearningselasticityintherecovery,includingaviation&airports,hotels,andrestaurants. ⑤Profitchangein2022-23vs.profitchangein2019-23:welookforsectorswithhighearningselasticityintherecoveryaswellaslong-termhighprosperity,includingaesthetics,dutyfree,hotels,andrestaurants. Werecommendsectorsandcompaniesincluding: Dutyfree:highearningselasticityintherecoveryandlong-termgrowth.WerecommendCTGduty-free,WangfujingGroup,HainanHaiqiTransportationGroup. Aesthetics:lowrelativevaluationalongwithlong-termgrowth.WerecommendImeikTechnologyDevelopmentandLancy. Aviation&airports:highearningselasticityintherecoveryandsignificantstockpriceretreatduringthepandemic.WerecommendShanghaiInternationalAirport. Hotelsandrestaurants:highearningselasticityintherecoveryandlong-termgrowth.WerecommendBTGHotels. Education:highearningselasticityintherecoveryandsignificantstockpriceretreatduringthepandemic.WerecommendChinaEducationGroupandOffcnEducationTechnology. Goldjewelry:significantstockpriceretreatduringthepandemicandlowvaluationprovidesdownsideprotection.WerecommendDrCorporation. BulksupplychainindustryB2B:lowvaluationandlong-termgrowth.WerecommendXiamenXiangyu. Risks：Statisticalerrors,pandemicimpactsinthesecondwave,lower-than-expectedconsumptionrecovery. 3February2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk Industryperformance RetailHSI300 1% -2% -5% -8% -11% -14% -17% -20% -23% -26% 2022/01/132022/05/142022/09/122023/01/11 Relatedreports 《出行复苏数据跟踪周报（2023 年第2周）：短途出行持续反弹，长途数据底部已现》 2023-01-11 《免税数据跟踪周报（2023年第2周）：元旦过后赴岛游客继续回升，线上折扣相对企稳》 2023-01-09 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployeesJincaoWu(吴劲草)andJingYang(阳靖). 1/7 东吴证券（香港） 2023消费复苏投资宝典：大消费业绩弹性--估值水位全景图，数解消费各领域投资机会增持（维持） 投资要点 我们看好2023年消费行业的复苏，随防疫政策放松、扩大内需战略推进，2023年消费行业有望供需两旺。供给端，政策上在消费企业供给有望得到充分的支持（如消费券，企业优惠，政策压制放松等），需求端， 疫情的放开会使得消费需求和消费意愿进一步释放。我们预计2023年，消费行业不论自上而下或自下而上，都是供需两旺的一年。 我们希望建立一个投资框架范式，来判断当前时点消费各细分领域所处的位置、业绩弹性、内在成长性，并结合股价反馈程度梳理一个消费板块投资全景图。 六大逻辑，寻找仍然值得布局的消费细分领域：�疫情期间股价跌幅较大的标的，表明消费复苏预期尚未完全在股价中得到反馈；②业绩在疫情间受损较大，疫后复苏弹性较高；③估值绝对数值较低；④估值分位数低，估值处于历史上相对低位，随消费复苏估值有望修复；⑤拥有持 续成长能力的高成长、高景气度赛道，消费复苏后有望实现长期的持续成长；⑥护城河明确，商业模式优秀的赛道，其具备明确的长期价值。 �张全景图，数解消费各领域所处位置： �过去三年涨跌幅vs2023E估值：寻找跌幅深估值低的板块，建议关注家电、黄金珠宝、家居、纺服等。 ②涨跌幅vs估值分位数：寻找复苏预期尚未完全演绎的赛道，建议关注家电、白酒等。 ③涨跌幅vs2019-22年利润增幅：寻找业绩和股价受损严重的领域，建议关注航空机场、旅游景区、教育等。 ④2019-22利润增幅vs2022-23利润增幅：寻找业绩受损严重、2023年复苏弹性大的标的，关注航空机场、酒店餐饮等。 ⑤2022-23利润增幅vs2019-23利润增幅：寻找疫后复苏弹性大，且具备长期成长性的高景气赛道，建议关注医美、免税、酒店餐饮等。 我们建议关注的板块和标的包括： 免税：疫后复苏业绩弹性较大、具备长期成长能力，推荐中国中免，建议关注�府井、海汽集团。 医美：目前估值分位数低、具备长期成长能力。推荐爱美客、朗姿股份。航空机场：疫后恢复弹性较大、疫情期间跌幅较大，推荐上海机场等。酒店餐饮：疫后恢复弹性较大、具备长期成长能力，推荐首旅酒店。 教育：疫后恢复弹性较大、疫情期间股价跌幅大、疫后复苏业绩弹性较大，推荐中教控股、中公教育等。 黄金珠宝：疫情期间跌幅较大、估值低，安全边际高。推荐迪阿股份等。大宗供应链产业B2B：估值较低、具备长期成长能力。推荐厦门象屿等。 风险提示：统计误差，疫情二次冲击，居民消费恢复不及预期等