逆势拓店彰显争先决心，曙光将至业绩弹性可期

BTG'sexpansionintheindustrydownturnshowsitsdetermination,anditshighprofitabilityelasticityisgoingtomanifestduringconsumptionrecovery Outperform(Maintain) 1February2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PricePerformance Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 6,153 5,281 6,803 8,113 Growth(YoY%) 16% -14% 29% 19% Netprofit(RMBmn) 56 -297 831 1,205 Growth(YoY%) 111% -633% 380% 45% EPS(RMB) 0.05 -0.27 0.74 1.08 P/E(X) 466.62 - 31.26 21.57 17% 12% 7% 2% -3% -8% -13% -18% -23% -28% BTGHotelsHSI300 Keywords:#reversaleffect#marketshareincrease InvestmentThesis ThethirdlargesthotelgroupinChina:affiliatedwithBTGGroupofBeijingSASAC,BTGHotels(group)isalistingplatformforitsstrategichotelbusiness.AftertheprivatizationofHomeInnsin2016,BTGHotelsgainedcomplementaryadvantagesandresourceintegrationinthecooperationwithHomeInns,bringingupgradestoitsoverallbusiness.ThroughsubsequentM&A,assetreplacement,independent&cooperativelaunch,andotherformsofhotelbrandexpansion,BTGHotelscurrentlyownsatotalof34hotelbrandsbySep2022,fullycoveringhigh-end,middle&high-end,middle-end,economy,leisure&vacation,andotherhotelproducts.BTGHotelsoperatesandmanages5,888hotelswith193,000roomsinChina,beingthethirdlargesthotelgroupinChina. Weexpectdemandrecoveryofhotelindustryinthepost-pandemicera,aftertheshrinkofsupply-sidecapacityduringthepandemic.Hitbyrecurringpandemic,thetotalnumberofhotels/roomssignificantlydeclinedsince2020,andthetotalnumberofhotelsdeclinedto279,000/252,000(-17%/-10%yoy)in2020/2021.Individualhotelsgenerallyarelessresilienttowardsrisksthanchainhotelgroups.Thetemporaryorpermanentquitofindividualhotelsislikelytostrengthenthemanagementandreferraltrafficofchainhotelgroups.Weseethemarketshareriseofbothchainhotelsinthehotelindustryandleadinghotelgroupsinthechainhotelmarket.From2019to2021,themarketshareofchainhotelsrosefrom26%to35%,withCR3ofhotels/roomsincreasingfrom5.5%/10.4%to9.7%/16.9%.Aspertheoperatingdataofthreemajorhotelgroupsin2022,whenOCC(Occupancyrate)onlyrecoveredto70-80%of2019,theADR(AverageDailyRate)alreadyrecoveredto90-100%of2019,confirmingasignificantimprovementofthecompetitivelandscape.WeexpectprofitabilityelasticityofADRinthepost-pandemicerawiththedemandrecovery,drivingBTGhotelstosignificantlyexceedthepre-pandemicperformance. Withhigherproportionofself-operatedhotels,BTGenjoysahigherprofitabilityelasticitythanpeers.Theshareofself-operatedhotelsforBTGreaches11.9%,rankingthehighestamongthreeleadinghotelgroups.Hoteloperatingincomeaccountedfornearly70%ofBTG'soverallrevenueduringthepandemic,leadingtohigherprofitabilityelasticity.BTGhotelscontinuouslyoptimizeditsoverallproductstructurewiththesteadyproportionincreaseofmiddle&high-endhotels.In2020,BTGHotelputforwardthestrategicgoalof"10,000storesinthreeyears"toacceleratethepenetrationoflessdevelopedarea.In2021,BTGHotelslaunched1,418newhotels(+56%yoy),hittingarecordhigh.Bytheendof3Q22,thenumberofitsreservehotelreaches2,046(+11%yoy),layingasolidfoundationforsubsequenthotelexpansion. EarningsForecast&Rating:WeforecastitsnetprofittobeRMB-0.297/0.831/1.205bnin2022-2024,indicatingP/Eof31x/22xin2023/2024.Weexpectanincreaseinbothitsearningsandvaluationduringrecovery.Wemaintainthe“Buy”rating. Risks:Pandemicresurgence,intensifiedcompetition,lower-than-expectedexpansionofhotels. 2021/12/012022/04/012022/07/312022/11/29 MarketDataClosingprice(RMB) 23.22 52-weekRange(RMB) 19.21/28.89 P/B(X) 2.42 MarketCap(RMBmn) 25,979.90 BasicDataBVPS(RMB) 9.61 Liabilities/assets(%) 58.35 TotalIssuedShares(mn) 1,118.86 Sharesoutstanding(mn) 1,070.43 Relatedreports 《首旅酒店(600258)：2022年一季报点评：经营低于市场预期，疫情反复或致业绩持续承压》 2022-04-29 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticular itsemployeesJincaoWu(吴劲草),JunTang(汤军),YixuanShi(石旖瑄)andZhiqianTan(谭志千). 东吴证券（香港） 1/9 逆势拓店彰显争先决心，曙光将至业绩弹性可期 增持（维持） 2023年2月1日证券分析师 陈睿彬 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 关键词：#困境反转#市占率上升投资要点 17% 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 6,153 5,281 6,803 8,113 同比 16% -14% 29% 19% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 56 -297 831 1,205 同比 111% -633% 380% 45% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 0.05 -0.27 0.74 1.08 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 466.62 - 31.26 21.57 12% 7% 2% -3% -8% -13% -18% -23% -28% 首旅酒店沪深300 首旅酒店是中国第三大酒店集团：背靠北京国资委旗下首旅集团，为住宿战略业务单元上市平台。2016年完成私有化如家后，与如家实现了优势互补、资源整合，为公司的整体业务带来升级。后通过兼并收购、资产置换、自主推出、合作推出等多种形式在酒店品牌上不断进行拓展， 截止到2022年9月，公司旗下共有34个酒店品牌，实现了高端、中高端、中端、经济型和休闲度假等全系列酒店产品的覆盖，共计运营或管理全国5888家酒店，客房数19.3万间，是全国第三大酒店集团。 疫情加速酒店行业供给出清，静待疫后需求复苏：2020年起酒店行业持续受到疫情影响，门店/客房总数显著下滑，2020年/2021年酒店住宿业门店总数分别为27.9万家/25.2万家，同比下滑分别17%/10%。单体酒店抗风险能力差，较难承担疫情反复带来的冲击，选择暂时或永久退出， 或加盟连锁酒店集团强化管理和引流能力。相应带来的是在连锁化率提升的同时，龙头酒店集团在连锁酒店市场占有率逆势提升。2019-2021年，酒店行业连锁化率从26%提升至35%，酒店数量CR3从5.5%提升至9.7%,客房数量CR3从10.4%提升至16.9%。从三大酒店集团2022年经营数据来看，在需求量仅恢复至2019年同期的70-80%区间情况下，平均房价恢复至2019年同期的90-100%，印证格局显著改善。预期后疫情时代随着需求的修复将释放房价弹性，带动业绩显著超越疫情前。 首旅酒店直营占比较可比公司高，业绩弹性可期，战略目标三年万店持续扩张：首旅酒店直营门店占比达到11.9%，在三大酒店集团中占比最高，疫情下酒店运营收入占整体营收比例近七成，业绩弹性更高。中高 端酒店比例稳步提高，产品结构不断优化。现有经济型酒店不断升级，同时