《太平洋经济监测》——2022年12月：太平洋社会保护的未来（英）

TheFutureofSocialProtectioninthePacific AfterlearningtolivewiththeCOVID-19pandemic,thesubregionmustrenewitsfocusonstrengtheningsocialprotectionsystemstohelpbuildresiliencetofurthershocks. Data-driven,targetedprogramsenableefficientspending Comprehensivedevelopmentstrategiesformultisector socialprotectionsolutions Broadenprotectionofvulnerablegroups Earlychildhooddevelopmenttobuildhumancapital Inclusivedigitaltechnologyforbetteraccesstobenefitsandlivelihoodopportunities Fiji:digitalCOVID-19payments Vanuatu:M-vatu SolomonIslands:youSavemembersincreased 3T,O672021 5,8O72018 53% WOMEN Palau ofhouseholds Federated Statesof Nauru 84.6%ofpeoplewithasevere disabilityreceivedasocialprotectionbenefitin2020 Youthemployability,upskilling,andentrepreneurship Domesticresourcemobilizationforreliablefinancing Averageshareofsocialprotectionspendinginnationalbudget Kiribati Remittances(aninformalsafetynet)increasedbetween 54% 27% inBabeldaob ofhouseholdsinKoror-Airai 56% Micronesia ofhouseholdsengagedinagricultural T3%26% 2016-20192020-2022 FY2020–FY2022 headedbyseniorcitizens activities SamoaTonga withoutincomes 4O% purelyforsubsistence Tuvalu 26.7%29.7% Limitedcoverageofsocialsafetynets LowsocialprotectionspendingbymostPacificgovernments T7%24% 2016-20192020-2022 PacificEconomicMonitor December2022 www.adb.org/pacmonitor 2Highlights Contents GDPGrowth Samoa AsianDevelopmentBankProjections (6.0) Internationalandregionaldevelopments3 Countryeconomicissues7 SolomonIslands (4.2) 2.0 3.0Pacificsubregion Policybriefs: Sevenfuturedirectionsforsocial36 protectioninthePacific SocialprotectioninthePacific:40 Historicaltrendsandfuturepathwaysforinvestment Socialprotectionatthecrossroads:44 TongaPalau MarshallIslands NauruKiribati (2.2) (1.0) (0.9) 2.5 4.3 1.5 1.2 2.2 1.8 2.3 10 5 0 (5) (10) (15) Pacificislands Takingthe“highroad”towarduniversalsocialprotection Economicindicators47 CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO) ©2022AsianDevelopmentBank.Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2022.PrintedinthePhilippines. ISBN978-92-9269938-3(print);978-92-9269-939-0 Vanuatu FSM TuvaluPapuaNewGuinea CookIslands Fiji (10.0)0.0 2.0 4.0 2.2 4.1 2.5 2.7 3.5 4.9 5.6 201819202122p23p 10.5 11.2 14.5 15.020.0 (electronic);978-92-9269-940-6(ebook) ISSN2521-6066(print),2521-6074(electronic) Inflation ChangeinrealGDP(%)2022p2023p PublicationStockNo.SPR220568-2 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/SPR220568-2 AsianDevelopmentBank PacificEconomicMonitor,December2022.MandaluyongCity,Philippines. ThiseditionoftheMonitorwaspreparedbyRobertBoumphrey,JacquelineConnell,PrinceCruz,NoelDelCastillo,Lily-AnneHomasi,MagdelynKuari,AshishNarain,RemrickPatagan, NauruMarshallIslandsSolomonIslandsCookIslands Fiji Vanuatu 2.3 2.5 3.5 3.2 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.8 4.2 4.8 5.5 PacificsubregionPacificislands 8 6 4 7.72 0 (2) RommelRabanal,MarcelSchroder,CaraTinio,IsoaWainiqolo,andJamesWebbofthePacificDepartment.PublishingproductionassistancewasprovidedbyCecilCaparas. TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsor KiribatiPapuaNewGuinea Tuvalu Tonga 3.7 3.3 5.0 5.1 6.0 7.6 201819202122p23p 8.59.4 thegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforany consequenceoftheiruse.Thementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyare SamoaFSM Palau 4.1 5.0 8.8 8.8 10.6 10.2 endorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofa 0.03.06.09.012.0 similarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritory Changeinconsumerpriceindex(%,annualaverage) 2022p2023p orgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthispublication,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherof thatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. ()=negative,FSM=FederatedStatesofMicronesia,GDP=grossdomesticproduct,p=projection.Notes: 1.ProjectionsareasofDecember2022andrefertofiscalyears.Fiscalyearsendon30JunefortheCookIslands,Nauru,Niue,Samoa,andTonga;31JulyforFiji;30SeptemberfortheMarshallIslands,theFederatedStatesofMicronesia,andPalau;and31Decemberelsewhere. 2.SubregionalaveragesofGDPgrowthandinflationarecomputedusingweightsbypurchasingpowerparity(PPP)GDPincurrentinternationaldollars. 3.AveragesforthePacificislandsexcludePapuaNewGuinea.Source:AsianDevelopmentBankestimates. Globalgrowthslowswhileinflationaccel