2022年年底全球广告预测报告

groupm THISYEAR NEXTYEAR 2022 GLOBAL END-OF-YEAR FORECAST AReportFromGroupM,wPP'sMediaInvestmentGroup DECEMBER2022 DECEMBER2022THISYEARNEXTYEARGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTgroupm VTHISYEAR NEXTYEAR 03 06 INTRODUCTION UNCERTAINTIMES 13 14 2023OUTLOOK 16 MAINSTREAM MEDIATRENDS 21 TOP1OMARKETDATA 32GLOBALSUMMARYDATATABLE 33 CONTACT INTRODUCTIONgroupm INTRODUCTION ADVERTISINGHASPERHAPSNEVERBEENMORETOP-OE-MINDORMOREINTHEPUBLICEYETHANITHAS BEENINTHELAST SIXMONTHS. Notonlyduetotherecentwall-to-wallnewscoverageofthecriticalroleitplaysinunderpinningthebusineesofsocialmedia,butalsobecauseinaworldbesetbyeconomieuncertainty,advertisinghasbeenthrustintothespotlightasasortofbellwetherforBigTochandretailcommerce.,Helduptothatlight,themessageisnot 5.5%,excludingU.S.politicaladvertising(whatwecall"underlyinggrowth").Thisis lowerthanourJuneforecastwhenweestimated$.4%growth;however,thisisprimarilytheeffectofloweredChinaexpectatione.Ex-China,growthisforecastat8.1% for2022.Atthemidpointof2022itwasdifficulttogaugewhethertheearly consunerspending,globalsupplychainsand,ultimately,advertisingrevenueClearly,inflationhasprovedmcreintractable,ashasthewarinUkraine.And yet,onlyhalfofthe62marketewetrackdowngradedtiheirgrowthforecastfor2022. fromtheJuneforecasts.It'salsoimportanttonotethat,whencomparinglas December'sforecasttothisDecember's,theU.S.dolarhasappreciatedconsiderablythroughout2o22,whichincrementallyskewsgrowthdownwardduetothehigher weightoftheU.S.advertisingmarketandbringsdowntheoverallsizeoftheglobalindustry,atleastwhendenominatedinU.s.dollars, THISYEARNEXTYEARGLORALEND-OF-YEARFORECAST groupm Notably,onlytwoofthe62marketswetrackareforecastingnegativeOnlyhalfofthe 62 growthinnominalterms(thatis,withoutadjustingforinflation)in2022.Amajorityofmarkets,35,areforecastinggrowth,albeitbelowtheaverageglbalrateofinflationthisyear,whichis8.8%perthe InternationalMonetaryPund(IMF)October2o22WorldEconorric Outlook.Theother25marketsareprojectinggrowthaboveglobalmarketswetrack inflation,andwhilesomestillfallbelowinflationlevelsintheirowndowngradedtheir country(eg,ArgentinaandTurkey),16marketeareoutpacinglevelsgrowthexpectations ofinflationathome,includingAustralia,Brasil,India,Kenya,Malaysia,for2022fromour Mexico,SouthAfricaandSouthKorea. Juneforecast. Lookingatnextyear,whentheIMFexpectsglobalinflationtodropto6.5%,weseeasimilartrendwith26marketspredictingadvertising growthaboveaverageglobalinflation,32marketsforecastingnominal growthbelowtherateofinflation,andjustfourmarketepredicting nominaldecline(Austria,Italy,NewZealandandSpain).Cur21 globalforecastcallsforgrowthef5-g%in2023. markets,upgraded theirexpectations, and 2022 10 marketsmade nochange. global advertising growth 6.5% THISYEARNEXTYEARIGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTUNCERTAINTIMESgroupm MACROECONOMICBACKDROP UNCERTAIN TIMES Theuncertaintyandlackofeasyprecedentsinthe currentmacroeconomic environmentareposing significantchallengesforcompaniesthat,likepeople,don'ttendtoenjoyambiguityUnliketheglobalfinancialcrisisof2007to2009orthe oilembargorecessionoftheearly1970s,whichwerebothmarkedbyhighinflationand highunemploymentinmanyDuringtheseperiodsafterWorldWarIIandtheKoreanWar nations,onemustventuretheU.S.economywasinastateoftransitionweaningoffthe backtothe1940sand'50sgovernment-drivenindustrialproductionandstimulusmoneythat tofindaplausibleanalog forourcurrenteconomicmalaise.Whilenocomparison flowedintothemarket.PricesintheU.S.increased15%inthefirsthalfof1946-aloneaswar-timepricecontrolewerelifted,returningsoldiersdroveupdemandandglobalshortagesofgoodsrestricted supply.Soundfamiliar?Notablyin1946theunemploymentrate isperfect,itcanbeillustrativeneverroseabove5%,andtheaveragefor1953(followiigthe tolookattwopost-warKoreanWar)was2.g%,eventuallypeakingat6.1%inSeptember recessionsintheU.s.whenof1954°aftertherecessionended.Thesewerealsofairlymild assessingthecurrentenvironment.Astheworld's recesions,withU.S.GDPdeclining1.1%in1947anda.6%in1954.accordingtotheBureauofEconomicAnalysis. largesteconomyandhomeOnecouldmaketheargumentthatweareinaglobalpcst-COVID-1g "war"periodmarkedbytheafter-effectsofgovernmentfiscalpolicy tomanyoftheworld'slargest advertisersandadsellers, andmajorsupplychaindisruptions,andnotinadot-combubbletyperecession,That'swhywearenotseeingtheuniversaldownturm theseU.s.examplesprovidenotyetanyway-of2oo8oreven2001,despitemostcompanies auseful,iflimited,read.remindingusthattheyareproceedingwithanabundanceofcaution.Itshouldbenotedthat2022isalsomarkedbyarealandcontinuingwarinBurope.Individualmarketeintheregionare facingmorechallengingtrendsthroughtheendofthisyearandintonextwithnoendinsight. DECEM8ER2022THISYEARNEXTYEARGLOBALEND-OF-YEARFORECASTUNCERTAINTIMESgroupm SOMETHINGSAREUNIVERSAL Almostunivereally(outsideofChinaandJapan),inflationhassoaredoverthepastyear.ThelateetheadlinefigurefortheU.K,(asofOctober)is11.1%,measuredasyear-over-yearchange,3InLatvia,LithuaniaandEstonia,thefiguretopped2o%inOctober.4IntheU.S.,inflationgrowthhaemoderatedfollovingsteepsucceesiveinterestratehikes bytheU.S.Federa