互联网电商行业深度报告-即时零售系列深度三：基于渠道对比视角的空间展望与沙盘推演

On-demandretailindustryreport3:marketoutlookandcompetitiondeductionfromachannelcomparisonperspective Outperform(Maintain) InvestmentThesis Whydowewantinvestorstopaymoreattentiontoon-demandretail?On-demandretailisaretailmodebasedonon-demanddeliverysystems,whichmatchesthesupplyanddemandoflocalgoodsonlineandprovideshourlyhomedeliveryservice.Thankstorelativelycleardemand&businessmodelandmulti-partyefforts,on-demandretailenjoys 22December2022 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk Industryperformance rapidgrowthandiscurrentlyinanimportantdevelopmentphase.Withslowinggrowthof overallonlineretail,weseegreatopportunitiesinon-demandretailindustry. Demand:potentialofRmb1tnin2025.Themotivationofon-demandretailconsumptionupgradesfromproductdimensionoftraditionale-commerceto"product+time+space"dimension.Penetrationpotentialremainsforcategorieswhosedemandisnotfullysatisfiedbylesstime-efficienttraditionale-commerceorwhoseofflinescenariodoesnothaveanabsoluteadvantage.Asperourcalculation,theceilingofon-demandretailusersiscloseto550-640million,higherthanfooddeliverybutlowerthanintegratede-commerce.We 4% 1% -2% -5% -8% -11% -14% -17% -20% -23% -26% -29% E-commerceHSI300 expectthemarketsizetoreachRMB1018.2bnin2025,andthepenetrationrateofoffline channelstobeabout3.3%,withaCAGRof31%in2022-2025.Specifically,weexpectthepenetrationratesofcategorieswithshortexpiration&lowrequirementsoncommodityform,otherhigh-frequency&low-valuecategories,low-frequency&largepricebandspanorpolicycontrol,andothercategoriestobe15%/13%~14%/8%/5%. Supply:trendsofplatformmodeandsupplydiversification.Theearlyexplosivegrowthofon-demandretailplatformsislowerthanotherplatforms,andwebelievethegrowthdifferenceisrelatedtotheextenttowhichplatformsoptimizethematchingefficiencyofsupplyanddemand.Thelackofeffectivesupplyrestrictsthecurrentindustrydevelopment,andfutureincreaseinsupplywilldriveuppenetrationrateinofflinechannels.1)Supplymode:self-supplymodemainlymeetsthedemandoffreshfoodrelatedcategories,whileplatformmodebecomesthemainforcetoexpandindustrysupply.Platformmode'schannelcharacteristicsofhighturnoverandregionalprecisionmarketingshouldpromotebrandstoincreaseinvestment(weexpectitsmarketsizetogrowfromRmb227.6bnin2021toRmb709.7bnin2025,taking70%ofthemarketsharein2025vs.65%in2021).2)Growthpath:consideringthelowconcentrationofofflineretailindustryandthestrategictendencyofleadingretailers,webelievethecontributionofleadingretailersisrelativelylimitedwhilesmall-andmedium-sizedstoreswithdensedistribution,largenumberanddigitalpossibility,aswellasverticalstoresarelikelytobecomethemainsupplyincrementonplatforms.Inaddition,"lightningwarehouse"withbothusertrafficandefficiencyadvantagesdeveloprapidly,andweexpectitssupplygrowthtoacceleratewithmoresuccessfulmerchantcases. Competitiondeduction:industry-widebenefitsintheneartermwithmorefocusonsupplyandefficiencyinthelongterm.1)Trafficacquisitionstage:advantagesinbrandrecognitionhelpInstashoppingtoeffectivelyconvertMeituanusers(Instashopping/Meituanusers=41%vs.JDDJ/JDusers=11%in2021),resultinginlowercustomeracquisitioncost.Duetodifferentiatedsupply,InstashoppingandJDDJsharedifferentpositioning,butweexpectthemtobothenjoytheindustry-widebenefits,givenlowuserpenetrationrate.2)Trafficretentionstage:a)Instashoppinghasabettersupplyexpansibility.InstashoppingandJDDJarebothbreakingthroughtheircomfortzoneofsupply,andwebelieveInstashoppingenjoysbettersupplyexpansibility.DiversificationofMeituan'strafficsourcesisalsoanimportantincentiveformerchants.WeestimateInstashoppingandJDDJ’sGMVtoreachRMB438/140.1bnin2025,accountingfor62%/20%oftheon-demandretailmarketrespectively.b)Instashoppinghasobviousadvantagesinefficiency.Asperourestimate,JDDJ’saveragerevenueperorderishigher(higherAOV),butthankstothepositiveexternalityoffooddelivery,InstashoppinghasabetterUE,showingitsefficiencyadvantages.Consideringtheirexistingsupplystructureanddevelopmentstrategy,aswellasInstashopping'sgreaterelasticityinAOVandmonetizationrate,weexpectInstashoppingtofirstachieveOPbreak-evenandenteravirtuouscircleafterbusinessself-sufficiency,withoptimizedfeesandhigheruserstickiness.WeexpectInstashoppingtoachieveUEofRMB1.58(1.6%ofAOV)in2025,contributingRMB6.9bntototaloperatingprofit,andJDDJtoachieveprofitofRMB4.4perorder,contributingprofitsofRMB2.5bn. Recommendation:Meituan,DADA,HangzhouSfIntra-City. Risks：Macrofluctuationrisk;lower-than-expectedindustrydevelopment;competitionrisk;differencesbetweenresearch,statistics&calculationandactualresults. 2021/12/062022/04/062022/08/052022/12/04 Relatedreports 《全面看多中国资产，港股互联网春天将至》 2022-12-02 《数字经济需做优做强，平台经济需顺风前行》 2022-11-01 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticularitsemployees张良卫(Liangwei Zhang),夏路路(LuluXia)and郭 若娜(RuonaGuo). 1/8 东吴证券（香港） 即时零售系列深度三：基于渠道对比视角的空间展望与沙盘推演 增持（维持） 投资要点 当前我们为何希望市场加大对即时零售的关注？即时零售是一种基于即时配送体系，线上匹配本地商品供需，并提供小时级到家服务的零售业态。当前需求与商业模式较为清晰，多方合力，增速较快，正处于重要的时间窗 口。在线上零售整体进入慢增长背景下，即时零售蕴含重要投资机遇