有色金属策略周报：乐观预期再度抬头，但供需趋弱也需正视

2012669 20221204 F3074367 Z0015479021-80401745 F03093505Z0017197 0755-82723054 F03088415 Z0016667 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 ETF 300 -2%-1%-1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 1.0 112 2TCTCTCTC3 4LME511 1.1 111 PMI12 234.70.912 7.7%11.9%111-2714% 4122+21.40.7511 1.2 1 410011 20.366.0% 11271120 356.9-1.2 4 12 12 1.3 15450/TC 11 23SMMLME 4 5 / -2 / -12.75 12 LME -30/ / -230 4 5 &LME2.3-1975 2.2-150092.9% 77.14%-1.46% 4.64-0.41 SMM 2 3 39.6%-1.59% 58.84%-0.21% TC 1 1.4 1.5 11.5 MHP 2 3LME15425.331457046 4 1.6 1 111111289300151 2 1112 3+52.620.8011.96%311.34%41112 1.7 1TC10 1011 21181.3%82%SMM1281.5%88.4%92092 3LMESHFE781849941011 11129 10 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.1 80000 CU03.SHF CA00.LME 11000 : : 5 75000 10000 600010 550000 70000 9000 400010 450000 65000 60000 8000 200010 350000 55000 2022/01/07 7000 2022/04/07 2022/07/07 2022/10/07 10 Feb-22 250000 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 WindBloombergSMM 2.1.1 2022/11/25 2022/12/2 7,990 8,472 482.0 6.0% 65120 66290 1170 1.8% 434918 439102 4184 1.0% 167397 176892 9495 5.7% 13 Nov-22 Oct-22 Sep-22 Aug-22 Jul-22 Jun-22 May-22 Apr-22 11 11 PMI49 12.7 PMI PMI 50.2 48 % 47.1 49.2 47.3 % % 49.8 49 11 CPI 11 Markit 10 GDP PMI PMI47.710.6 49.4 % %49.2 47.611 48.9 ISM 23.9 11 20 11 % 2.9% 10.4 2.6 11 ADP 2.7 11 3.7% 3.7 26.3 28.4 20 12 122 2940 202211 8270 11BP 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 2021/10/27 % 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 : : 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 (2000) (4000) (6000) (8000) (10000) (12000) 2022/02/27 2022/06/27 2022/10/27 WindBloombergSMM 14 PMI 2.1.2 TC 2.1.3 SMM 90.06 / 1.02 1-8 124.3 20803 7.7% 8.4% 1-10 200 2022202120202019 150 WBMS 1-9 1600 1.2% 1124 Freeport 100 2023 Benchmark / 88 / 2022 50 Benchmark 65 1 3 5 7 9 11 100 / 11 2600 :: (RC) 2022202120202019 80 9 2100 1600 607 1100 40 5 600 20 2021/03/19 3 2021/10/19 2022/05/19 100 123456789101112 2.1.4 1201/ 304/ 10 11.3 15%20221-10 147 8% 80000 3000 200100 2022 2021 2020 2019 SMM1# 70000 2000 150100 60000 1000 100100 50000 50100 40000 0 30000 2021/11/26 100 2022/03/26 2022/07/26 (1000)2022/11/26 123456789101112 2.1.5 11 100 800/ 0 / 105 / 0 105 50 700 1-10 99 29.5% SMM 2023 Benchmark 125 / 2022 155 / 2100 ( )- ( 220 150100 CIF )- 200 20222021 2020 2019 1600 180 100100 160 1100 140 50100 120 600 2018/10/31 2020/10/31 100 2022/10/31 100 1 3 5 7 9 11 10 2.1.6 1000 112098%318.59.2331.5 10SMM90.120.9%14.2%1-10851.252.8% 23.281190.330.210.23%9.4% 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 :(98%) 1050 850 650 450 Aug-22May-22Feb-22Nov-21Aug-21May-21Feb-21Nov-20Aug-20May-20Feb-20Nov-19Aug-19May-19 250 50 2022202120202019 1357911 Oct-22 Jul-22 Apr-22 Jan-22 Oct-21 Jul-21 Apr-21 Jan-21 Oct-20 Jul-20 2022 298.7 1-10 10% 481.8 8.7%1-10 122 8.01 532 372 2.5 0.2 0.34 0.02 8.4 3000 20222021 2020 2019 950000 8.2 10 2000 8.0 1000 750000 7.8 0 7.6(1000)550000 7.4(2000) 7.2 (3000) 350000 7.0 (4000) 150000 1 3 5 7 9 11 2.1.7 12M 11M 12M 10M 11M 9M 10M 9M 8M 8M 7M 7M 6M 6M 5M 5M 4M 4M 3M 3M 2M 2M 1M 1M 12M 12M 11M 10M 9M 8M 7M 6M 5M 4M 3M 2M 1M 11M 10M 9M 8M 7M 6M 5M 4M 3M 2M 1M % % 150 100 50 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 2021 2020 2019 2022 2021 2020 2019 2022 % % 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 50 0 2021 2020 2019 2022 2021 2020 2019 2022 11 12 2.1.8.1 111-27 21 14% 11 % 11 2.1.8.2 % 90 70 50 30 Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22 / 2000 1-6 7-13 14-20 21-27 28-30 1-27 20 47937 62867 58029 70587 154715 60296 69738 21 39150 45269 48805 76674 129587 52968 60630 22 35590 39652 52485 52877 45563 21 -18% -28% -16% 9% -16% -12% -13% 22 -9% -12% 8% -31% -14% 10 15% -20% 0% -32% -15% 1500 1000 500 0 Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22 12 2.1.8.3 12 598 1170 48.9% 17 7.7% 900 2022202120202019 1-10 18959 4.8% 7318700 5% 7159 3.4% 500 10 145 10 24.9%10 356 300 39.9% 189 5% 100 123456789101112 900 2022 2021 2020 2019 300 2022202120202019 700 250 200 500 150 300 100 100 1234567891011 12 50 123456789101112 WindBloombergSMM 22 Sep-22 Jun-22 Mar-22 Dec-21 Sep-21 Jun-21 SMM 0.07 11.27 SHFE 0.5 21.4 6.5 SHFE+ 9.0 0.3 3 + 0.7 500000 : LMECOMEX 700000 SHIFE+ 400000 600000 300000 500000 200000 400000 300000 100000 200000 0 100000 0 Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22 2.1.9 2.1.10 470/ 65 80.7 9.4 2023Codelco 140 35 80000 1# 200 ()- ()- 75000 600 150 70000 400 100 65000 200 60000 50 55000 0 50000 Feb-22 -200 0 Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22 -50 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Back Contango 2.1.11 -18010 LMECash-3M-17.5/15.5 LME 0-3 - - 85000 75000 65000 55000 45000 35000 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 67000 66000 65000 64000 63000 2022/12/22022/11/25 2022/11/18 1M2M3M4M5M6M7M 15 0 LME (0-3) 0 0 0 Jun-21Sep-21Dec-21Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22 0 10 5 -5 -100 2022/01/282022/07/28 Comex LME Comex 2.1.12 1129 1120 Comex51433494491984 1125LME4022930229LME99992275 Comex LME Comex353000COMEX:1: 100000 73000 LME 60000 303000 253000 203000 153000 103000 5300