美国正在发动一场新冷战（英）

TheUnitedStates IsWaginga NewColdWar: ASocialistPerspective JohnBellamyFoster,JohnRoss,andDeborahVeneziale withanIntroductionbyVijayPrashad TheUnitedStatesIsWagingaNewColdWar:ASocialistPerspective JohnBellamyFoster,JohnRoss,andDeborahVenezialewithanIntroductionbyVijayPrashad September2022 Attribution-NonCommercial4.0International(CCBY-NC4.0) ThispublicationisissuedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial4.0International(CCBY-NC4.0)license. Thehuman-readablesummaryofthelicenseisavailableat https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/. \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Contents Introduction05 VijayPrashad WhatIsPropellingtheUnitedStatesinto IncreasingInternationalMilitaryAggression?09 JohnRoss(LuoSiyi) WhoIsLeadingtheUnitedStatestoWar?33 DeborahVeneziale “NotesonExterminism”fortheTwenty-First- CenturyEcologyandPeaceMovements69 JohnBellamyFoster ///////////////////////////////////////////////// 5 Introduction VijayPrashad AttheWorldEconomicForummeetinginDavos(Switzerland)onMay23,2022,formerU.S.SecretaryofStateHenryKissingermadesomeremarksaboutUkrainethatstruckanerve.Ratherthanbecaughtup“inthemoodofthemoment,”Kissingersaid,theWest—ledbytheUnitedStates—needstoenableapeaceagreementthatsatisfiestheRussians.“Pursuingthewarbeyond[this]point,”Kissingersaid,“wouldnotbeaboutthefreedomofUkraine,butanewwaragainstRussiaitself.”MostofthecommentaryfromtheWesternforeignpolicyestablishmentrolledtheireyesanddismissedKissinger’scomments.Kissinger,nopeacenik,nonethelessindicatedthegreatdangerofescalationtowardsnotonlytheestablishmentofanewironcurtainaroundAsiabutperhapsopen—andlethal—warfarebetweentheWestandRussiaaswellasChina.Thissortofunthinkableoutcomewastoomuch,evenforHenryKissinger,whoseboss,formerPresidentRichardNixon,spokefrequentlyoftheMadmanTheoryofinternationalrelations;NixontoldhischiefofstaffBobHaldemanthathehadhis“handonthenuclearbutton”toterrifyHoChiMinhintocapitulation. Duringthelead-uptotheU.S.’sillegalinvasionofIraqin2003,IspoketoaseniormemberoftheU.S.StateDepartmentwhotoldmethatthepre-vailingtheoryinWashingtonamountstoasimpleslogan:short-termpainforlong-termgain.Heexplainedthatthegeneralviewisthatthenation’selitesarewillingtotolerateshort-termpainforothercountries—andperhapsforworkingpeopleintheUnitedStates,whocouldexperienceeconomicdifficultiesduetothedisruptionsandcarnagecreatedbywar.However,ifallgoeswell,thispricewillresultinlong-termgainastheUnitedStateswouldbeabletomaintainwhatithassoughttomaintain sincetheendoftheSecondWorldWar,whichisprimacy.Ifallgoeswellisthepremisethatsentshiversdownmybackashespoke,butwhatrattledmejustasmuchwasthecallousnessaboutwhomustfacethepainandwhowouldenjoythegain.ItwasquitecynicallysaidinWashingtonthatitwasworththepricethatIraqisandworking-classU.S.soldiersbenegativelyimpacted(anddie),solongaslargeoilandfinancialcompaniescouldenjoythefruitsofaconqueredIraq.Thisattitude—shorttermpain,long-termgain—isthedefininghallucinationoftheelitesintheUnitedStates,whoareunwillingtotoleratetheprojectofbuildinghumandignityandthelongevityofnature. Shorttermpain,long-termgaindefinesthedangerousescalationbytheUnitedStatesanditsWesternalliesagainstRussiaandChina.WhatisstrikingaboutthepostureoftheUnitedStatesisthatitseekstopreventahistoricalprocessthatseemsinevitable,whichistheprocessofEurasianintegration.AfterthecollapseoftheU.S.housingmarketandthemajorcreditcrisisintheWesternbankingsector,theChinesegovernment,alongsideotherGlobalSouthcountries,pivotedtobuildplatformsthatwerenotdependentuponthemarketsofNorthAmericaandEurope.TheseplatformsincludedthecreationofBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,andSouthAfrica)in2009andtheannouncementofOneBelt,OneRoad(latertheBeltandRoadInitiativeorBRI)in2013.Russia’senergysupplyanditsmassivemetalandmineralholdings,aswellasChina’sindustrialandtechnologicalcapacity,drewmanycountriesintoassociationwiththeBRIdespitetheirpoliticalorientation,withRussia’sexportofenergyundergirdingthisassociation.ThesecountriesincludedPoland,Italy,Bulgaria,andPortugal,whileGermanyisnowChina’slargesttradingpartneringoods. ThehistoricalfactofEurasianintegrationthreatenedtheprimacyoftheUnitedStatesandoftheAtlanticelites.Itisthisthreatthatdrivesthe dangerousattemptbytheUnitedStatestouseanymeansto“weaken”bothRussiaandChina.OldhabitscontinuetodominateinWashington,whichhaslongsoughtnuclearprimacytonegatethetheoryofdétente.TheUnitedStateshasdevelopedanuclearcapacityandposturethatwouldallowittodestroytheplanettomaintainitshegemony.ThestrategiestoweakenRussiaandChinaincludeanattempttoisolatethesecountriesthroughtheescalationoftheU.S.-imposedhybridwar(suchassanctionsandtheinformationwar)andadesiretodismemberthesecountriesandthendominatetheminperpetuity. Thethreeessaysinthisvolumecloselyandrationallyanalyzethelonger-termtrendsthathavenowmanifestedinUkraine. JohnBellamyFoster,theeditorofMonthlyReview,cataloguedthe“escala-tiondomination”theoryoftheU.S.establishment,whichhasbeenwillingtorisknuclearwinter—whichmeansannihilation—toholdontoprimacy.Despitetheactualnumbersofnuc