5G对新兴市场经济增长作用巨大

analysys mason ReportforEricsson Futurevalueofmobilein emergingmarkets JanetteStewart,Hugues-AntoineLacour,AndrewYi-JuChern 09November2022 Ref:698248491-273 Contents 1Introduction1 2StatusofSGdeploymentinemergingmarketsm 3Frameworkforthecost-benefitanalysisinthisstudy7 4Costsandbenefitsof5Gdeployment9 4.1Baselinescenario9 4.2Scenario1extendinglow-band5Gcoverage12 4.3Scenario2extendingmid-band5Gcoverage14 4.4Overallresults17 5Socialandenvironmentalbenefitsof5G21 5.1Assessmentofsocialbenefits21 5.2Assessmentofenvironmentalbenefits22 6Conclusionsandrecommendationsforpolicymakers24 analysys Ref:698248491-273.mason Futurevalueofmobileinemergingmarkets ConfidentialityNotice:Thisdocumentandtheinformationcontainedhereinarestrictly privateandconfidential,andaresolelyfortheuseofEricsson. CopyrightC2022.TheinformationcontainedhereinisthcpropertyofAnalysysMasonand isprovidedonconditionthatitwillnotbereproduced,copied,lentordisclosed,directlyor indirectly,norusedforanypurposeotherthanthatforwhichitwasspecificallyfurnished AnalysysMasonLimitedNorthWestWing,BushHouse Aldwych LondonWC2B4PJ UK Tel:+44(0)2073959000 london@analysysmason.comwww.analysysmason.com RegisteredinEnglandandWalesNo.5177472 analysys Ref:698248491-273.mason Futurevalueofmobileinemergingmarkets11 1Introduction AnalysysMasonwasengagedbyEricssontoproduceadetailedanalysisofthecostsandbenefits of5Gdeploymentin15emergingnations,includingBangladesh,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Egypt, India,Indonesia,Malaysia,Mexico,Morocco,Nigeria,Pakistan,SouthAfrica,Thailandand Turkey,basedonthreedeploymentscenarios. ThisstudywasconductedbetweenMarchandOctober2022,incollaborationwithEricsson's regionalandlocalteamsfor5Gpolicyandtechnologyforthemarketsunderstudy. Thestudywastoquantify: thecostandextentof5Gcoveragelikelytobeprovidedbycommerciallyled5Groll-outusing available5Gbands,i.e.lowband,midbandandmillimetre-wave(mmWave),',overa timeframefrom2020to2035.Thiscommerciallyleddeploymentisassumedtobemainly motivatedbydemandforconsumer-drivenusecases,includingenhancedmobilebroadband (eMBB)andfixed-wirelessaccess(FWA).Thisisthe“baseline’scenario. andachievewidergeographicalcoverage.Thisexpandedfootprintisassumedtobeusefulfor someindustrialusecases(e-g.insectorssuchasagricultureorfreightandlogistics)andfor consumerslocatedinruralareas.Thisisthe'low-bandexpansion'scenario,ie.Scenario1. theadditionalinvestmentneededbeyondthebaselinetoextendmid-bandcoveragetoachieve similargeographicalcoveragetothelow-bandbaselinefootprint,Weassumethiswillenable moreadvanced5Gusecasestobeofferedinthemarket(e.gautomation,augmentedandvirtual reality,high-qualityvideoprocessinginindustrialsectors).Thisisthe'mid-bandexpansion' scenario,i.e,Scenario2. theconsumersurplusthat5Gisexpectedtogeneratefrom5G-basedMBBuse,asaresultofthe availabilityofhigherspeedsandimprovedexperienceforasignificantlylowercostpergigabyte (GB)thanwithpreviousgenerationsofmobiletechnologies,Consumersurplusisquantifiedin thebaselinescenario,whiletheadditionalsurplusgeneratedbythegreaterproportionofmobile subscriberscoveredby5GiscalculatedinScenario1,andbyhavingaccesstohigherspeeds acrossalargermid-bandfootprintinScenario2. theincrementaleconomic/gross-domestic-product(GDP)benefitsthat5Gcoverageexpansion brings,whichareestimatedbasedon5Genablingusecasesacrossfiveindustryclusters, includingsmartfactories,mining,construction,energyandutilities(Smartindustrycluster), airports,ports,freightandlogistics(Smartlogisticscluster),agriculture(Smartruralcluster), Inthisreport,low-bandspectrumreferstosub-1GHzspectrumusedtoinitiallyintroduce5Gservices(e-g. 600MHz,700MHz),Mid-bandspectrumrefersto2.3GHzunpaired,2.6GHzunpairedor3.5GHzspectrum.Millimetre-wave(mmWave)referstospectrumbetween24GHzand40GHz. analysys Ref:698248491-273mason Futurevalueofmobileinemergingmarkets12 municipalbuildingsandhealthcare/hospitals(Smartpublicservicescluster).Economicbenefits arequantifiedforbothScenario1andScenario2,basedontheexpectedcontributionoflow- bandandmid-bandspectrum(respectively)tothosebenefits. Thestudyalsoassessedqualitatively,ineachbenchmarkcountry,thepotentialof5Gtohelpreduce greenhousegasemissionsinindustrialscctorsthroughachievinggreaterefficiencyandproductivity, andtoenablearangeofsocialbenefits(socialinclusion,safetyandsecurity,wellbeing) Thisreportprovidesasummaryofthekeyfindingsofthestudy,andisstructuredasfollows: *Section2summarisesthelateststatusof5Gdeploymentineachcountry Section3providesanoverviewoftheframeworkusedforthecost-benefitanalysisinthestudy Section4describesourmodellingapproachtoquantifythecostsandbenefits,andthemaincost andbenefitoutput Section5summarisestheresultsofouranalysisofthesocialandenvironmentalbenefitsof5G Section6setsoutourconclusionsandrecommendations analysys Ref:698248491-273mason Futurevalueofmobileinemergingmarkets13 2Statusof5Gdeploymentinemergingmarkets Severalmobilenetworkoperators(MNOs)havenowlaunchedinitial5Gservicesinemerging countries,typicallybyadding5Gnewradio(NR)totheir4Ginfrastructure.Commercial5Gservices wer