2022-2035年美国轻型电动汽车成本和消费者利益评估

WHITEPAPER OCTOBER2022 ASSESSMENTOFLIGHT-DUTYELECTRICVEHICLECOSTSANDCONSUMERBENEFITSINTHEUNITEDSTATESINTHE2022–2035TIMEFRAME PeterSlowik,AaronIsenstadt,LoganPierce,StephanieSearle www.theicct.orgcommunications@theicct.org twitter@theicct BEIJING|BERLIN|SANFRANCISCO|SÃOPAULO|WASHINGTON ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ThisworkisconductedwithgeneroussupportfromtheAspenGlobalChangeInstitute,theHeising-SimonsFoundation,andtheEnergyFoundation.CriticalreviewsonanearlierversionofthisreportwereprovidedbyGeorgBieker,TomCackette,DaveCooke,HongyangCui,AshokDeo,ChetFrance,JohnGerman,ChrisHarto,KathyHarris,JoeMendelson,DanMeszler,PeterMock,SimonMui,EamonnMulholland,MargoOge,SpenderReeder,GaryRogers,andZifeiYang.Theirreviewdoesnotimplyanendorsement,andanyerrorsaretheauthors’own. EditedbyAmySmorodin InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation1500KStreetNW,Suite650 Washington,DC20005 communications@theicct.org|www.theicct.org|@TheICCT ©2022InternationalCouncilonCleanTransportation EXECUTIVESUMMARY Asglobalelectricvehicleproductionvolumesproliferate,theircostsdeclineandtheprospectsofatransitiontoelectricvehiclesincrease.Governmentsaroundtheworldareworkingtoacceleratethetransitiontozeroemissiontransportationtomeetairquality,climate,energysecurity,andindustrialdevelopmentgoals.TheUnitedStatesislookingtoreverseitslaggardpositionbypromotingelectricvehicleswithactionsinthesupplychain,regulationsonautomakers,incentivesforconsumers,andsupporttodeploycharginginfrastructure. Improvementsinbatteryandelectricvehicletechnologyleadtoresearchquestionsabouthowquicklyelectricvehiclecostswilldeclineandreachpriceparitywithconventionalvehicles,andalsoaboutthemagnitudeoftheassociatedfuel-savingbenefits.Thispaperanalyzesbottom-upvehiclecomponent-levelcoststoassessbatteryelectric,plug-inhybridelectric,andconventionalvehiclepricesacrossthemajorclassesoftheU.S.light-dutyvehiclemarketthrough2035.WeapplythesecostestimatestoevaluatevehiclecostsandtheirbroaderconsumerbenefitsanddiscusstheimplicationsforvehicleemissionregulationsintheUnitedStates. FigureES1summarizesthefindingsforaverageconventionalgasolineandelectricvehiclepricesthrough2035forU.S.cars,crossovers,SUVs,andpickups,whichrepresentalllight-dutyvehiclesalesintheUnitedStates.Conventionalvehiclesintheseclassesarecomparedwithbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)withelectricrangesfrom150to400milesandplug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs)withrangesof20to70miles.Batteryelectricvehicleshaveupfrontpricesthatareabout$3,000to$25,000greaterthantheirgasolinecounterpartsin2022.Withdecliningelectricvehiclebatteryandassemblycosts,shorter-rangeBEVsof150to200milesareprojectedtoreachpriceparityby2024–2026,followedbymid-rangeBEVswith250to300milesaround2026–2029,andthelongest-rangeBEVswith350to400milesaround2029–2032. PHEVpricesdeclineatarelativelyslowerrateduetotheirrelativelysmallerbatterypacksandtheadditionalcombustionpowertrains;noPHEVsinanyclassreachpriceparitywithconventionalvehiclesoverthetimeframeofthisanalysis. ConventionalBEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300 BEV350 BEV400 $45,000 Vehicleprice $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 PHEV20PHEV30PHEV40PHEV50PHEV60PHEV70 Car 20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 ConventionalBEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300 BEV350 BEV400 $50,000 Vehicleprice $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 PHEV20PHEV30PHEV40PHEV50PHEV60PHEV70 Crossover 20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 ConventionalBEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300 BEV350 BEV400 $70,000 Vehicleprice $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 PHEV20PHEV30PHEV40PHEV50PHEV60PHEV70 Sportutilityvehicle 20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 ConventionalBEV150 BEV200 BEV250 BEV300 BEV350 BEV400 $70,000 Vehicleprice $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 PHEV20PHEV30PHEV40PHEV50PHEV60PHEV70 Pickup 20222023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035 FigureES1.Conventional,batteryelectric,andplug-inhybridelectricvehiclepricesofcars,crossovers,sportutilityvehicles,andpickupsintheUnitedStatesfor2022–2035. TableES1summarizestheyearbywhichbatteryelectricvehiclesreachpriceparitywithconventionalvehicles,basedonthesamedatapresentedinFigureES1.Asshown,foragivenelectricvehiclerange,theexpectedtimingforpriceparityissimilarforcars,crossovers,andSUVs.PriceparityforpickuptrucksisaboutoneyeardelayedforBEVswith300-milerangeorless.Forthelargestandheaviest350-mileand400-milerangepickups,priceparityisdelayedbytwotothreeyears,respectively,comparedtotheothervehicleclasses. TableES1.Summaryofyearbywhichbatteryelectricvehiclepriceparityisreached Vehicleclass Range(miles) BEV-150 BEV-200 BEV-250 BEV-300 BEV-350 BEV-400 Car 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030 Crossover 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030 SUV 2024 2025 2027 2028 2029 2030 Pickup 2025 2026 2028 2029 2031 2033 Note:Numbersintableareroundedtothenearestyear. Ouranalysisleadsustothreehigh-levelconclusions: Batteryelectricvehiclepurchasepriceparityiscomingbefore2030forBEVswithupto300-milesofrangeacrossalllight-dutyvehicleclasses.