2022年黄金报告

InGoldWeTrust Report May24,2022 Stagflation2.0 philoro Ronald-PeterStoferle ncrementum&MarkJ.Valek InGoldWeTrust apar WewouldliketoexpressourgratitudetoourPremiumPartnersfor supportingtheInGoldWeTrustreport2022 DetailsaboutourPremiumPartnerscanbefoundonpage39off. AGNICOEAGLEArion DAKOTAGOLD INDEAVOUREndeevous SKER MAMM MINERA MATTERHORN ALAMOSOSTERREICH NZBD)Solit NreZaulandBulanDoeoftanphiloroREYNAGOLD Sprott TUDORVICTORIAXimen GOLDSOLDCORI RXIWO Contents Introduction:ofWolvesandBears4 StatusQuoofGoldasaCurrency16 StatusQuoofGoldRelativetoStocks,BondsandCommodities24 StatusQuoofDcbtDynamics43 StatusQuooftheInflationTrend64 StatusQuootGoldDemand85 Conclusion:StatusQuo95 Stagflation2.0104 StagflationandaNewGoldStandard-ExclusiveInterviewwithAlasdairMacleod130 ANewInternationalOrderEmerges145 Energy,War&Inflation-ExclusiveInterviewwithLukeGromen168 China-AttheCrossroads184 WhenRomeLostItsReserveCurrency202 WhyDoesFiatMoneySeeminglyWork?218 GoldStorage:FactCheckingGermany,Canada,andtheUK235 TheSynchronousEqultyandGoldPrlceModel251 HowIoUnderstandGold'sSupplyandDemandFundamentals268 Silver'sInflationConundrum281 Bitcoin:BullMarketinAdoption,BearMarketinPrice294 MiningShares-FundamentalandTechnicalStatusQuo305 TheChallengesoftheGoldMiningIndustry318 Royalty&StreamingCompanies:AnExcellentWayofInvestinginGold331 TheNewLow-EmissionsEconomy:GoldasaSavior343 TechnicalAnalysis356 QuoVadis,Aurum?366 AboutUs386 ugassespertiwfi Introduction:ofWolves andBears "Toignorethewarningsignsandcontinuewiththestrategiesofthepast istoignorethethird,crucialcryof wolf." "TheBoyWhoCriedWolf:InflationaryDecadeAhead?,*InenentumInflationSpecial November2020 KevTakeawavs Inourspecialanalysisfromthefallof2020,"TheBoyWhoCriedWolf',wewarnedurgentlyofthe underestimateddangerofhighinflation.Thewolfis nowheretostay.ThewarinUkraineisexacerbating theinflationdynamic. Theintractabilityofsupplychainissues,thecostofsanctions,tightermonetarypolicy,and deglobalizationarenowbringingtherecessionbeartothetablealongsidethewolt. Themajorityofinvestorshavebeencaughtonthe wrongfootbyenteringtheInflationaryenvironment Balancedportfolioshavebeensufferingheavy lossessofarthisyear. Inadditiontode-globalizationanddecarbonization argueforalonger-termstagflationaryenvironment inwhichmultiplewavesofinflationarelikelytooccur. ThefreezingofRussianforeignexchangereserves andthenewgeopoliticalrealitiesmakegoldincreasinglyattractiveasaneutralinternational reserveasset. WeTrust IntroductioncofwolvesandBears OfWolvesandBears Whetherthebearbeetsthewoif.Inthefallof2020,inthemidstofthesecondCovid-19wave,wewere orthewolfbeatsthebear,thepromptedtopublishaspecialeditionoftheInGoldWeTrustreport.In rabbitelwaysloses.ourpublicationentitled"TheBoyWhoCriedWolf:InflationaryDecadeAhead?" RobertJordanweusedAesop'sparabletoissueanurgentwarmingaboutthedangerofinflation creepinguponus.Themajorityofmar'stetparticipantswerenolongerfarniliar withthispredator,whichwasthoughttobeextinct,sincethelastperiodofhigh inflationwasmanydscadesago. Nowthewolfishereanditdominatestheheadlines.Butmanyinvestors hidebebindthenaiveillusionthatthewolfwilldisappearagainafterashorttime justlikathat,andwithouthavingfeastedonanyprey. ZhetrueintestmentchellengeisNowthenextdangerisalreadylurking:sneakingupbehindthewolfis toperformwellindifficu/ttimes.abear,Thisbearsymbolizesastrikinggconomicdownturn,pushingassstprioss SethKlarmandownwrithitspaw,Onceagain,themajcrityofoconomistsandinvastorsrllba caughtonthewrongfoot. MonthlyInflationandGDPPollsfor2022,USAandEuroArea,01/2021-04/2022 Incromertum 40% 3.0% 20% 10% 0.0%50% 45% t40% +3.54 ↑3.0% 01/2221 04r202107ea211022101α922 042022 1±5% USACPIEuroAreaHICP-USAGDProAreaGDPSourew:ReulesEkon,IneremanlumA0 AfterthedevastationoftheCovid-19pandemic,everyonehopedfor Butthesefiguresweremainlyduetoareturntoacertaineconomicncrmality dapandentcnthebaseeffect. Forthcsepreperlyprepared,theButwhatwastherealtinderthatcausedthisgrouuthfiretoburn?Inthe bearmarkefisnotonly2wakeofthegloballockdownsaadtheequitymarketcrash,theUSeconomy firunguoddouejnqfgjaub[20contractedbyanannualizedg-1%inQ=/2020,whileglobalGDPslumpedby3-%. JohnTempletonAnunprecedentedflurryofmonetaryandfiscalpolicieswereimplementedinanattempttolirmittheeconomicdamagecausedbythelockdownsandpreventtha loomingdebt-deflaticn. Thestockmarketsreactedwithdelight,deflationwasaverted,andjust afewmonthslaterthefinancialmarketswereonceagaininhigh Incrementum Linkedin1twiter1eIGWTreport IntroductioncofWolvesandBears spirits.TbeS&PsooralliedfromitsCovid-1glowtoanewall-timehighinjust5 months,andtheNasdaqsoared134%fromlowtohighinjust3months. Buttheinflationarysideeffectsofthebrutemonetaryandfiscalrevivalmeasures manifestedthemselvesquietlyoverthecourseofthepastyear.Thepricepaidfor rescuingthemarketswrassteadilyrisinginflation,whichbrokethroughthecentral banks'2%targetinboththeUSandtheeuroareainmid-2021. Menyofussmileatold-Butcentralbankersappeasedus.Don'tbeafraidofthewolf;thehow]you feshionedfortune-tellers.Butthinkyouhearisjustyourimagin