中国经济评论：10月数据走弱，料政策持续维稳

CCBISECURITIES|RESEARCH ChinaEconomicsUpdate:SoftOctecodatapointstocontinuedpolicysupport 中国经济评论:10月数据走弱，料政策持续维稳 10月份的经济数据走弱。尽管线上销售有所帮助，但零售数据总体疲软凸显了疫情防控政策的影响。环保措施的收紧则对能源密集行业的生产有所抑制，但高科技产业增速依然强 劲。我们预计受疫情等因素影响，未来数月增长将继续承压，但经济表现预计好于第二季度的低谷。 疫情防控政策调整对经济的利好仍有待时日。最近宣布的疫情防控的优化措施将为消费提供一些支持，但由于动态清零政策的总体目标保持不变，我们预计短期内整体效果仍然有限。但政策调整为明年疫情防控政策进一步放宽奠定基础，有利经济的显著改善。 预计宏观政策继续保持支持态势。政府对房地产行业的支持立场预计持续，有利于降低地产行业的金融风险。短期央行的流动性政策预计保持稳定宽松，公共投资有望保持稳健增长，特别是能源转型等行业，对短期经济增长有所支持。 Octeconomicsdatamissedexpectationsacrosstheboard,reflectingCovidrestrictionsandthesoftpropertysector.DisappointingretailsaleshighlightedtheimpactofCovidrestrictions,despitesomeoffsetfromonlinesales.Thetighteningofenvironmentalrestrictionsalsocurbedproductionoftheenergyintensivesectors,buthigh-techoutputgrowthremainsstrong.Weexpecttheheadwindstogrowthtocontinueinthecomingmonthsthoughtheeconomyislikelytobebetterthanitwasinthetroughin2Q. BoosttoeconomicgrowthfromCovidpolicyrelaxationwilltaketimetomaterialize.Althoughrecentlyannouncedmeasuresonfine-tuningCovidcontrolswilllendsomesupporttoconsumption,weexpecttheoveralleffecttobemarginalinthenear-termasthebroadgoaloftheDynamiczero-Covidpolicyremainsunchanged.Morerelaxationcouldcomenextyear,however,pavingthewayforsignificantimprovement. Macropoliciestoremainsupportive.Thegovernment’ssupportivestancetowardsthepropertysectorislikelytocontinue,reducingfinancialrisksinthesectoramideconomicheadwinds.Liquiditypolicyislikelytostayaccommodativeandpublicinvestmenttoremainsolidledbypriorityareassuchastheenergytransition. KevinXie (852)39118241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com LiCui (852)39118274 cuili@ccbintl.com Softer-than-expectedindustrialproductionandretailsales Industrialproduction(IP)growthslowedmorethanexpectedinOct(actual:5%YoYversusconsensus:5.3%YoY).Sequentialgrowthslowedfrom0.8%MoMinSepto0.3%MoM,slowerthanhistoricalaverages.Theslowdownwasevidentinmostsectorsexceptpharmaceuticalsandelectricmachinery(Fig1). Growthinminingoutputmoderatedto4%YoYinOct,theslowestpacesinceSep2021.Growthinelectricityandutilityproductionoutputreboundedslightlyto4%YoY,ashighbaseeffectsinSeptoOct2021causedbyelectricityshortages,hadgraduallyfaded. Growthinmanufacturingproductiondeceleratedfrom6.4%YoYinSepto5.2%inOct.Despiteabroadslowdown,hightechmanufacturing,suchaselectricmachineryandcomputer&electronicequipment,continuedtooutstripoverallmanufacturing,withoutputgrowthacceleratingto10.6%YoY,thefastestpacesinceMar2022.Automanufacturingoutputgrowtheasedtoastill-solid18.7%YoYinOct.Weexpecttheboostinproductionfromtherecoveryinautosupplychainsthisyeartofadeinthemonthsahead. RetailsalesinOctwereweakerthantheconsensusforecastbecauseoftheimpositionofCovidrestrictionsinagrowingnumberofChinesecities(Fig2).TotalCovidcaseshaverisensincethestartoftheNationalDayHolidays(1Oct).Localauthoritiesrespondedwithrigidpandemiccontrolmeasuresincludingrestrictionsonmobilitythatweighedonconsumerspending.Retailsalescontracted0.7%MoMor0.5%YoYinOct.CateringservicesborethebruntofCovidrestrictions,contracting8.1%YoY,thoughspendinginconsumergoodswasaffectedtoo.Onlineshoppinggrowthjumped22%YoYinOct,offsettingsomeoftheweaknessinofflineactivities. FixedAssetInvestment(FAI)growthslowedto5%YoYinOctbyourestimate(Fig3),withfallingrealestateinvestmentthemaindrag.Bycategory: Despitesomesoftening,broadinfrastructureinvestmentcontinuedtogrowatdouble-digitsinOct,reflectinginvestmentforenergytransitionandotherprioritizedareas.Investmentgrowthintraditionalinfrastructuresuchastransportation,waterconservancyandpostalservices,steppeddownslightlyto9.4%YoY.Investmentgrowthinbroadinfrastructureinvestment,includinginvestmentintheutilitiessector,remainsatasolid12.6%YoY,pointingtoacceleratedinvestmenttofacilitatetheenergytransition. ManufacturingFAIgrowthdippedto6.9%YoYinOct.However,accordingtotheNBS,high-techinvestmentcontinuedtoexpandstronglyat20.5%YoYinOctoverthepasttenmonths.Thestrongpushintohightechsectorswillremainthemedium-terminvestmentthemegivenindustrialupgradesandgrowingUStechnologyrestrictions.ThisisconsistentwithourviewofanewcapexcycleinChina,despitemacrochallenges. Thecontractioninrealestateinvestmentwidenedto16%YoYinOct,signalingadeepeningpropertydownturnandacallforpromptpolicysupport. PropertyindicatorscontinuedtofluctuateatrecentbottomsinOct.Thecontractioninpropertystartsandpropertyunderconstructionnarrowedslightly.However,thecontractioninthevolumeofpropertycompletionsandpropertysaleswidened.Highfrequencydatashowedtherecentreboundinpropertysaleslostmomentum,probablybecauseoftighterCovidrestrictions(Fig4). Ourview: ThesofterdatainOctpointstoslowingeconomicmomentumasCovidcasesbeganresurginginearlyOct,withconsumptionandhousingremainingweak.NorthernChinatendstotightenenvironmentalrestrictionsinwinter,curbingproductioninsomeupstreamindustries.Weexpectthistoweighonthegrowthrecoveryincomingmonths,althoughdownsidepressureisunlikelytobeassevereasitwasin2Q22.WhileChinesetradegrowthmoderatedasglobalmanufacturingexpansionslowed(Fig7),trademomentumremainedbenignandclosertradeintegrationbe