中国经济评论：制造业坚挺推动三季度和九月数据反弹，消费继续偏弱

CCBISECURITIES|RESEARCH ChinaEconomicsUpdate:Upbeat3QandSeptembergrowthafterstrongmanufacturingoffsetsoftconsumption 中国经济评论:制造业坚挺推动三季度和九月数据反弹，消费继续偏弱 9月经济数据和3季度增长反弹并好于预期，制造业升级，贸易和政策支持为主要推动力。汽车、装备制造、高端制造引领工业产出的强势扩张。传统基建，能源和技术领域的基础 设施投资，以及企业资本支出支持投资，抵消了房地产的疲软增长。受全球制造业需求和中国贸易的区域化等因素支持，出口增长和对外顺差保持坚挺。疫情防控下消费，特别是线下服务保持低迷。 我们预计制造业继续支持年内的经济增长，疫情仍对经济有负面影响。预计投资和贸易增长仍将是增长的关键支柱，但疫情下消费复苏仍然乏力。预计稳地产措施继续推出，有助于支持房产销售的进一步温和复苏。反映疫情防控的持续影响，我们将2022年增长率预测下调到3.9%。 宏观经济政策预计保持稳定。今年地方专项债的融资收入和其他金融工具（如PSL）等仍为年内稳增长的政策措施提供资金来源。增长反弹和通胀上行的背景下，流动性政策预计保持稳定。关注12月的中央经济工作会议（CEWC）可能推出的下一阶段政策规划。 Sepdataand3QGDPconfirmthatmanufacturingupgrades,trade,andgovernmentpoliciesprovidedkeysupporttogrowth.3QGDPandSepproductionbeatexpectations.Auto,equipment,andhigh-endmanufacturingledstrongIPexpansion.Infrastructureinvestmentintraditionalinfrastructure,energytransition,andthetechnologysectorsalongsidecorporatecapexweretheimpetusbehindstronginvestmentmomentum,whichoffsetweakgrowthinproperty.Exportsagainbeatexpectations,supportedbystill-robustglobaldemandandChina’sregionalpivot.However,retailsalesgrowthdisappointed,reflectingtheimpactofCovidrestrictions. Weexpectgrowthmomentumtosustainin4Q2022F,thoughCovidremainsarisk.WeexpectinvestmentandtradegrowthwillremainChina’spillarsofgrowththoughconsumptionandconsumerserviceswillremainadragunderCovidcontrols.Housing-relatedsupportivemeasuresarelikelytocontinue,supportingafurthermodestrecoveryinhousingsales.Welowerour2022GDPgrowthtargetto3.9%followingtoday’sreport. Stablemacropoliciesinthenear-term.Weexpectalready-issuedlocalgovernmentbondsandotherfinancialtoolstoprovidefinancialresourcestofundpublicinfrastructureinvestmentthroughtotheyear-end.Liquiditypoliciesarelikelytoremainstablegivencontinuedgrowthmomentum.TheCentralEconomicWorkingConference(CEWC)inDecislikelytoshedlightonthepolicyagendaincomingyears. LiCui (852)39118274 cuili@ccbintl.com KevinXie (852)39118241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com China’s3Q2022GDPgrowthbeatexpectations The3Qeconomicreboundfollowingthe2QShanghailockdownwasstrongerthantheconsensusforecastbutin-linewithourexpectation.Sequentialannualizedgrowthacceleratedfromadownward-revised-2.7%in2Qto3.9%in3Q(consensus:2.8%,CCBIS:3.7%),andannualgrowthrosefrom0.4%YoYin2Qto3.9%YoYin3Q.Year-to-dateGDPgrowthliftedfrom2.5%YoYin2Qto3%YoYin3Q. StrongindustrialproductionandsoftretailsalesinSep Industrialproduction(IP)deliveredstronger-than-expectedgrowthinSep,rising6.3%YoY,wellabovetheconsensusforecastofa4.8%YoYrise. GrowthinminingoutputreboundedinSep,butremainedbelowthestrongpacein1H2022.Theinfrastructureinvestmentpushmaysupportdomesticdemandforminingoutput.However,dimmingglobalgrowthprospectsandthecontinuedpropertydownturncontinuetodragdemandforminingproducts.Growthinelectricityandutilityproductionoutputfellto2.9%YoY,reflectinghighbaseeffects. Growthinmanufacturingproductionacceleratedfrom3.1%YoYinAugto6.4%YoYinSep,inpartdrivenbybaseeffects.However,theunderlyingstrengthwassolid:high-techsectorssuchaselectricmachineryandcomputer&electronicequipmentmanufacturingcontinuedtorecordstronggrowth,drivenbyresilientexportdemandanddomesticindustrialupgrades.Year-to-dategrowthinhigh-techmanufacturingoutputtickedupto8.5%YoYinSep,wellabovethe3.9%growthrateinoverallIP.Bycontrast,thecontractioninpharmaceuticaloutputacceleratedasexternaldemandformedicalproductseased.Autoproductioncontinuedtoenjoystronggrowthof23.7%YoYinSep(Fig2).Aneasingchipshortage,recoveringsupplychains,andglobalpent-updemandcontinuetosupportautoproduction. Growthinretailsalesslowedto2.5%YoYinSep,softerthantheconsensusforecastofa3.0%YoYrise(Fig3).Intermittentlockdownsremainadragonconsumerspending.Cateringspendingcontracted1.7%YoY.Housing-relatedspending,suchasonfurnitureandhomedecorations,remainedsoft.Autosaleswereabrightspot,havinggrown14.2%inSep,supportedbyrecoveringautoproductionandfavorabletaxpolicy.China’sMinistryofIndustryandInformationtechnologyandtheMinistryofFinanceextendedthetaxrebateonpurchasesofnewenergyvehiclesuntil31Dec2023.Onlinesalesmaintainedstrongmomentumwith14.5%YoYgrowth.Spendingonfuelandfoodgrewnotablyat8.5%YoYand10.2%YoY,drivenbyelevatedfoodandenergyprices.Adjustingforpriceincreases,weestimaterealretailsalescontractedby0.7%YoYinSep,comparedwiththe2.2%increaseinAug. FixedAssetInvestment(FAI)growthpickedupto6.5%YoYinSepbyourestimate(Fig4),drivenbystronginfrastructureandmanufacturinginvestment.Realestateinvestmentstabilizedatrecenttroughs.Bycategory: Infrastructureinvestmentpickedup,reflectinginvestmentforenergytransition.Investmentintraditionalinfrastructuresuchastransportationandpostalservices,grew10.5%YoYinSep,thesecondfastestpacesinceMar2021.Growthinbroadinfrastructureinvestmentacceleratedto14.9%YoYasinvestmentintheutilitiessectorsuchpowergenerationandtransmissionjumped34%YoYinSep,pointingtoacceleratedgreeninvestmentandenergytransition. Double-digitmanufacturingFAIgrowthsustainedat10.7%YoYinSep.AccordingtotheNBS,expansionofhigh-techmanufacturinginvestmentmaintainedatapaceof20.2%YoYoverthepastninemonths.IndustrialupgradesandtheUS’