主要经济体的排放情景：2022年更新（英）

Greenhousegasmitigationscenariosformajoremittingcountries NewClimateInstitute|October2022i Greenhousegasmitigationscenariosformajoremittingcountries Analysisofcurrentclimatepoliciesandmitigationcommitments:2022update Authors: LeonardoNascimento,TakeshiKuramochi,SantiagoWoollands,MiaMoisio,MariaJosedeVillafrancaCasas,FredericHans,GustavodeVivero,HannaFekete,NataliePelekh,SwithinLui,JamieWong,NiklasHöhne(NewClimateInstitute),IoannisDafnomilis,ElenaHooijschuur,MicheldenElzen,MarkRoelfsema(PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency),NicklasForsell,ZuelcladyAraujoGutiérrez,MykolaGusti(InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis) October2022 October2022 Greenhousegasmitigationscenariosformajoremittingcountries Analysisofcurrentclimatepoliciesandmitigationcommitments:2022update Projectnumber 321043 ©NewClimateInstitute,PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgencyandInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis2022 Authors LeonardoNascimento,TakeshiKuramochi,SantiagoWoollands,MiaMoisio,MariaJosedeVillafrancaCasas,FredericHans,GustavodeVivero,HannaFekete,NataliePelekh,SwithinLui,JamieWong,NiklasHöhne(NewClimateInstitute) IoannisDafnomilis,ElenaHooijschuur,MicheldenElzen,MarkRoelfsema(PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency) NicklasForsell,ZuelcladyAraujoGutiérrez,MykolaGusti(InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis) ThisreporthasbeenpreparedundercontracttotheEuropeanCommission,DGCLIMA(ECservicecontractN°090302/2021/854077/SER/CLIMA.C.1/REN‘AnalyticalCapacityonInternationalClimateChangeMitigationandTrackingProgressofAction’)startedinFebruary2022.ThisprojectisfundedbytheEuropeanUnion. Disclaimer Theviewsandassumptionsexpressedinthisreportrepresenttheviewsoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseoftheclient. Coverpicture:PhotobySarahHuonUnsplash Downloadthereporthttp://newclimate.org/publications/ Acronyms AFOLUagriculture,forestryandotherlanduseAR4FourthAssessmentReportoftheIPCCAR5FifthAssessmentReportoftheIPCCBAUbusiness-as-usual CAFECorporateAverageFuelEconomyStandards CATClimateActionTracker CCScarboncaptureandstorage CH4methane CO2carbondioxide CO2ecarbondioxideequivalent COP21UNFCCCConferenceoftheParties21stsession(Paris) CPPUnitedStatesofAmerica’sCleanPowerPlan CSPconcentratedsolarpower DESAUNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsEDGAREmissionsDatabaseforGlobalAtmosphericResearchEEAEuropeanEnergyAgency EPAUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgency ERFEmissionsReductionFund ETSemissionstradingsystem FAIRPBL’sFrameworktoAssessInternationalRegimesfordifferentiationofcommitments NF3nitrogentrifluoride F-gasfluorinatedgas G4MIIASA’sGlobalForestModel GCFGreenClimateFund GDPgrossdomesticproduct GHGgreenhousegas GLOBIOMIIASA'sGlobalBiosphereManagementModel Gtgigatonne(billiontonnes) GWgigawatt(billionwatts) GWPGlobalWarmingPotential H2hydrogen Hahectare HWPharvestedwoodproducts HEPSHighEnergyPerformanceStandards HFChydrofluorocarbon IEAInternationalEnergyAgency IIASAInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysisIMAGEPBL’sIntegratedModeltoAssesstheGlobalEnvironmentINDCintendednationallydeterminedcontribution IPCCIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange IPPUIndustrialProcessesandProductUse km/lkilometreperlitre ktoethousandtonnesofoilequivalentkWhkilowatt-hour(thousandwatts-hour)LPGliquefiedpetroleumgas LULUCFlanduse,land-usechange,andforestry MEPSMinimumEnergyPerformanceStandards MJmegajoule(millionjoules) Mm3megacubicmetres(millioncubicmetres) mpgmilespergallon Mtmegatonne(milliontonnes) Mtoemilliontonnesofoilequivalent MWmegawatt(millionwatt) N2Onitrousoxide NAMANationallyAppropriateMitigationActions NC6SixthNationalCommunication NRENewandrenewableenergy NDCnationallydeterminedcontribution NOXnitrogenoxides NRENewandRenewableEnergies OECDOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment PBLPBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency PESPaymentsforEcosystemServices PFCperfluorocarbon PIKPotsdaminstituteforclimateimpactandresearch Pkmpassenger-kilometre PPPPurchasingPowerParity PVphotovoltaic RErenewableenergy ReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationandtheroleof REDD+ conservation,sustainablemanagementofforestsandenhancementofforestcarbonstocksindevelopingcountries SF6sulphurhexafluoride SSP2SharedSocio-economicPathways‘middleoftheroad’scenario ttonne(thousandkilograms) tcetonnecoalequivalent(29.288GJ) toetonneofoilequivalent(41.868GJ) TIMERPBL’sTargetsIMageEnergyRegionalModel tkmtonne-kilometre TPEStotalprimaryenergysupply TWhterawatt-hour SARIPCC’sSecondAssessmentReport UNUnitedNations UNEPUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme UNFCCCUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange WEOIEA’sWorldEnergyOutlookreport TableofContents Acronymsiii Acknowledgementsvii 1Introduction1 1.1Background1 1.2Objectives1 1.3Overviewofmethods2 1.4Limitationsofthisreport2 1.5Otherconsiderationsforthisreport3 2Keyfindings5 2.1NationalGHGemissions5 2.2AchievementofNDCtargets8 3Resultspercountry11 3.1Argentina12 3.2Australia15 3.3Brazil19 3.4Canada22 3.