KoolearnTechnology(01797.HK) EquityResearch·CompanyResearch·Supportservices Risks:Fiercercompetition;riskoflosinganchors;lower-than-expectedconsumption; policyrisks. 1/6 东吴证券(香港) FY2022Review:effectsofstrategictransformationstarttomanifest,andlive-streame-commercebusinessisworthexpecting Buy(Maintain) Forecast&Valuation FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E Revenue(RMBmn) 600.53 2,552.43 3,617.40 4,963.40 Growth(YoY%) -57.67% 325.03% 41.72% 37.21% Netincome(RMBmn) -533.95 556.41 865.21 1,118.89 Growth(YoY%) - - 55.50% 29.32% EPS(RMB) -0.53 0.56 0.86 1.12 P/E(X) - 57.57 37.03 28.62 InvestmentThesis Event:Thecompany'sFY2022revenuedroppedby58%yoytoRMB600mn;FY2022netlossnarrowedfromRMB1.658bninFY2021toRMB534mn. Thelive-streame-commercebusinessbecameanewgrowthdriverwhiletheeducationbusinessstartedtostabilize.1)Education:InFY2022,thecompany'srevenuefromcollegeeducationandinstitutionaleducationbusinessdeclinedby6%and22%yoyrespectively,narrowerthanthatofFY2021.Inaddition,thenumberofcollegeeducation’spayingstudentsbegantostabilize,thankstocontinuedoptimizationofproductlinesandadjustmentofmarketingstrategyforoverseastestpreparation.2)live-streame-commerce:Thecompany'slive-streame-commercebusinessachievedrevenueofRMB24.6mninFY2022,withaGMVofaroundRMB2bninthelastthreemonths.Withnearly25millionfollowersandexcellentindicatorssuchaspurchase&repurchaserateandreturnrate,thee-commercebusinessenjoysrapidgrowth.WeexpectthelaunchofDongfangZhenxuanapptohelpthecompanyaccumulateprivatetrafficandmeettheneedsofuserswithstrongshoppingpurposes. DongfangZhenxuanenjoysleadingprofitabilitythroughcontentmarketingandbrandmarketing.Thecompany'se-commercebusinessachievedFY2022grossprofitofRMB9.3mn.ItstartedtogainprofitandrealizedpositivecashflowsinceJune,thefirstmonthofFY2023.DongfangZhenxuan'sprofitmarginismuchhigherthanthemarginoftraditionallive-streamingmarketingandMCNcompanies,mainlydueto1)Revenueside:itsrevenuemainlycomesfromproductcommissionsandproprietarysales.ThoughlackofpaymentchargedbytraditionalMCNcompanies,DongfangZhengxuanisabletoholdstrongbargainingpowerforproduct-selectionandhighlevelofcommissionrate.2)Costside:acquiringcustomersviaattractivecontentsavestrafficcosts;live-streamingviathebrandnamesavestheanchorcommissioncosts. Brandvalueisunleashingasthee-commerceaccountmatrixcomestomanifest.The“BeautifulLife”accountbeginstoimplementhigh-intensitylive-streamingof12hours/dayrecently.AccordingtoFeiguadata,theGMVof“BeautifulLife”accountreachedRMB54.51mnfrom8/1to8/28,upby116%comparedtotheGMVfrom7/8to7/31.Alongwiththeexpansionoftheanchorteam,improvedmatchingofanchor&categoryandstrongersupplychaincapabilities,weexpectthecompanytofurtherimprovethesalesefficiencyofnon-agriculturalcategories,andtoexpandproductlinestomorecategoriessuchasmotherandchild,sports,culturaltravelandetc.tofullyreleasethebrandvalue. EarningsForecast&Rating:Weexpectthecompany'sneweducationproductsandlivee-commercebusinesstocontributemoreincrementalincomesinceFY2023andraiseEPSforecastofFY2023-FY2024fromRMB0.54/0.85toRMB0.56/0.86;estimateFY2025EPStobeRMB1.12,withcorrespondingP/Eat57x/37x/28xforFY2023-FY2025.Wefavorthecompany'slong-termdevelopmentandmaintainthe"Buy"rating. 11October2022 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PricePerformance MarketData Closingprice(HKD)35.10 52-weekRange(HKD)2.84/37.60P/B(X)18.80 MarketCap(HKDmn)35,247 BasicData BVPS(HKD,LF)1.93 Liabilities/assets(%)20.32 TotalIssuedShares(mn)1,004.20Sharesoutstanding(mn)1,004.20 Relatedreports 《新东方在线(01797.HK:):品牌价值释放,直播业务启航》 2022-08-11 《新东方在线(01797.HK:):渠道体系快速搭建,差异化竞争优势及长线运营能力凸显》 2021-01-24 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticular itsemployeesLiangweiZhang(张良卫),LiangjiuZhou(周良玖)andRuonaGuo(郭若娜). 新东方在线(01797.HK) 证券研究报告·公司点评·支援服务(HS) 2022财年年报点评:战略转型效果显现,直播电商业务值得期待 买入(维持) 盈利预测与估值 FY2022A FY2023E FY2024E FY2025E 营业总收入(百万元) 600.53 2,552.43 3,617.40 4,963.40 同比 -57.67% 325.03% 41.72% 37.21% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) -533.95 556.41 865.21 1,118.89 同比 - - 55.50% 29.32% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄(元/股) -0.53 0.56 0.86 1.12 P/E(现价&最新股本摊薄) - 57.57 37.03 28.62 投资要点 事件:2022财年公司实现营收6亿元,同比下降58%;归母净亏损5.34 亿元,2021财年归母净亏损为16.58亿元。 教育业务开始企稳,直播电商业务开启第二曲线。(1)教育:2022财年大学教育业务和机构教育业务收入同比下降6%和22%,相比2021财年降幅有明显收窄,大学教育付费学生人次亦开始企稳,主要得益于公司产品线持续优化以及海外备考营销战略的调整。(2)直播电商: 2022财年公司直播电商业务实现收入2460万元,近三个月GMV20亿 元左右。团队已突破200人,其中主播团队将近20人,且仍在增加。 2022年10月11日 证券分析师 陈睿彬 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 市场数据 收盘价(港元)35.10 一年最低/最高价2.84/37.60 市净率(倍)18.80 公司直播电商正处于快速发展阶段,当前粉丝数近2500万人,粉丝购买率、复购率、退货率等指标行业领先;东方甄选APP上线亦有望帮助公司更好沉淀私域流量,满足购物目的性强的用户需求。 内容带货/品牌模式下,东方甄选享有行业领先的盈利水平。2022财年 港股流通市值(百万 港元) 基础数据 35,247 公司直播电商业务毛利930万元,毛利率37.8%,从6月份开始(2023财年第一个月)已实现盈利和正现金流。东方甄选利润率远高于传统直播带货模式和MCN公司,主要系:1)收入端:公司收入主要来自向代销产品抽取佣金和销售自营产品。虽然没有传统MCN公司的坑位费,但也保障了选品议价权,佣金率在业内处于较高水平。自营品盈利能力更强,目前自营品销售收入占比正呈现提升趋势,公司预计稳态收入占比在50%以内。2)成本费用端:公司依靠内容获客,节省流量采买成本;品牌带货模式,节省主播分成成本。 账号矩阵雏形初现,品牌价值正持续释放。近期美丽生活账号已开始实行每天12个小时高强度直播,根据飞瓜数据,8/1-8/28美丽生活账号GMV5451万元,相比