在大型互联经济体中，应对气候变化相关冲击的全球经济压力测试（英）

StressTestingtheGlobalEconomytoClimateChange-RelatedShocksinLargeandInterconnectedEconomies YeuJinJung,CamiloE.Tovar,YiqunWu,andTianxiaoZheng WP/22/189 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2022 SEP ©2022InternationalMonetaryFundWP/22/189 IMFWorkingPaper Strategy,Policy,andReviewDepartment StressTestingtheGlobalEconomytoClimateChange-RelatedShocksinLargeandInterconnectedEconomies* PreparedbyYeuJinJung,CamiloE.Tovar,YiqunWu,andTianxiaoZheng AuthorizedfordistributionbyDeliaVelculescuSeptember2022 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Westresstesttheglobaleconomytoextremeclimatechange-relatedshocksonlargeandinterconnectedeconomies.Ouranalysis(i)identifieslargeandinterconnectedeconomiesvulnerabletoclimatechange-relatedshocks;(ii)estimatestheseeconomies’externalfinancingneeds-at-riskduetotheseshocks,and (iii)quantifiesthespilloverstotheglobaleconomyusingaglobalnetworkmodel.Weshowthatlargeandinterconnectedeconomiesvulnerabletoclimatechangecouldtriggeradrainof$1.8trillionininternationalreserves(2percentof2019’sglobalGDP).Domesticandmultilateralmacroeconomicpoliciescanhelpreducethesegloballossesstoabout$0.8trillion.Thescenariohighlightstheimportanceofconsideringglobalspilloverswhenassessingtheimpactofclimatechange-relatedshocks. JELClassificationNumbers: F34,F37,F41,F47,F60,F65,F68,G15,G17,Q54 Keywords: Climatechange;externalfinancing-needs-at-risk;multilayerednetworks Author’sE-MailAddress: yeujin.jung@gmail.com;ctovar@imf.org(Correspondingauthor);ywu2@imf.org;tzheng@imf.org. *WethankAnaCorbacho,KristinaKostial,andDeliaVelculescufortheircomments,support,andcontinuedencouragementtopursuethisproject.WealsoacknowledgeveryusefuldiscussionswithJuanTrevino,PilarGarcia-Martinez,andDraganaOstojic,andtheoutstandingresearchassistanceofEthanBoswell,NickHallmark,ShimingXiong,andYuchenZhang.Finally,wethankseminarparticipantsatSPR’sStrategyUnitfortheirfeedback. WORKINGPAPERS StressTestingtheGlobalEconomytoClimateChange-RelatedShocksinLargeInterconnectedEconomies PreparedbyYeuJinJung,CamiloE.Tovar,YiqunWu,andTianxiaoZheng Contents I.Introduction5 II.LiteratureReview7 A.MacroeconomicImpactofClimateChange7 B.PolicyResponsesandTrade-offs8 C.Interconnectedness,Spillovers,andContagion9 III.VulnerabilitytoClimateChange10 A.Definitions10 B.MeasuresofClimateChangeVulnerability11 C.IdentifyVulnerableEconomiestoClimateChange13 IV.ClimateChangeandExternalFinancingNeeds-at-Risk14 A.EconometricResults15 V.StressTestingtheGlobalEconomytoClimateChange-RelatedShocks17 A.SimulationsScenarioUsingtheMultilayeredNetworkModel20 VI.ConclusionandPolicyImplications21 References29 FIGURES 1.EconomicSize,Interconnectedness,andClimateChangeVulnerability13 2.GlobalValueChains(GVCs)andClimateVulnerability14 3.ExternalFinancingNeeds-at-Risk(F@R):DensityEstimatesforBaselineandClimateChange-RelatedShockScenarios16 4.CDSSpreadsandClimateChangeVulnerability17 5.CDSSpreadsandReserveAdequacyLevels19 6.ExtremeScenario:GlobalSystemicImpactofaCombinedClimateChange-RelatedShockinCountryAandCountryB20 TABLE 1.AssessingCountryVulnerabilitiestoClimateChangeRisks12 ANNEXES I.DataSource23 II.RobustnessCheck25 III.ExternalFinancingNeeds-at-RiskQuantileRegressions26 IV.MultilayeredNetworkModel27 I.Introduction Climatechangehasbecomeanexistentialissue.Globaltemperatureshaveincreasedatunprecedentedlevelsoverthepast40yearsandareexpectedtoincreaseby1.5ºCby2030andby2.2to3.5ºCby2100(IPCC,2022).Whilethereisuncertaintyaboutthespecificdevelopmentandspeedofclimatechange,thesetrendswillleadtoasignificantincreaseinthefrequencyandseverityofextremeweatherevents,suchasheatwaves,droughts,andfloods(IMF,2020a).Asidefrominflictingdevastatingnaturaldisasters,climatechangeischangingthepatternofdiseasesandmortalityoftheglobalpopulation. Notsurprisingly,thenumberofcountriessufferingfromtheadverseimpactstriggeredbyclimatechangeisincreasing.Whilemanysmalleconomieshavebeenthemostaffectedbyclimatechange,nocountrywillbesparedfromthesetrends.Extremeweathereventsoverpastcoupleofyears,includingrecord-breakingrainfallsandfloodsinChinaandWesternEurope(e.g.,Germany),orthescorchingheatwavesinAsia(e.g.,India),SouthandNorthAmerica(e.g.,Brazil,Canada,theUnitedStates,andtheUnitedKingdom),confirmtheexposureoflargeeconomiestoclimatechange-relatedshocks. Extremeweathereventsandclimate-relateddisasters—onceconsideredtail-riskevents—arebecomingmorefrequentandneedtobecarefullyanalyzed.Evidenceincreasinglyshowsthatclimatechange-driveneventscouldadverselyimpactnaturalcapital,resultinthedestructionofinfrastructure,disruptlivelihoods,andcausemassmigration,withdevastatinghumanitarianconsequences(IMF,201