策略深度报告：日本90s：资产负债表衰退与股市泡沫

Japaninthe1990s:BalanceSheetRecessionandStockMarketBubble Viewpoint ThedeterministicfactorsofChineseeconomyaresimilartothoseofJapaneseeconomyinthe1980sand1990s.�ChinaandJapanareverysimilarduringrapideconomicdevelopmentstage,includingbutnotlimitedto:1)Beforetheeconomyboomed,thefoundationforindustrializationwaslaidthankstothe“WholeNationSystem”;2)Exportsbecameanimportantdriverofeconomicgrowthintheprocessofglobalization;3)BothChinaandJapanbelongedtotheEastAsianculturalcirclewherepeoplepursuestability,illustratedbyhighsavingsrates.②ChinaisalsosimilartoJapanintermsofIntermsofGDPgrowthrate,percapitaGDP,exportstructure,populationstructureandlandpricedynamics,the1980sand1990s. Japan’seconomicbubblestartedwiththe"PlazaAccord"andendedwiththe"LostDecade".�TheriseofJapanafterWorldWarIIledtointensifiedcompetitionbetweenJapanandtheUnitedStates,andthehugetradedeficittriggeredthetradewar.②In1985,the"PlazaAccord"wassigned.TheappreciationofJapaneseYenandthedepreciationofUSDollarbecamethebeginningofJapan'sbubbleeconomy.③Monetaryandfiscalpoliciesbecameexcessivelyaccommodative,andsurplusliquidityflewintothestockmarketandrealestatemarket,leadingtoassetbubbles.④U.S.economichegemonyconsolidatedduetothesigningofthePlazaAccordandtheLouvreAccord. Theeconomicbubbleburstin1990s,namedasthe"lostDecade".�BalanceSheetRecession:Enterprisesshranktheirliabilities,leadingtoaliquiditytrapastheneedforcapitalfromtherealeconomydecreased.②Fallingbirthrateandagingledtoshrinkingworkforce,unsustainabletaxgrowth,andhighgovernmentdebt.Japanwasatriskofcollapseduetoaprolongeddeteriorationinitsfiscalcondition.③Thefailureofmonetaryandfiscalpoliciesledtohighsavingrateandinsufficientlong-termdemand.Withinthislow-desiresociety,evenifthegovernmentadoptedstrongmonetaryandfiscalstimuluspolicies,along-termeconomicrecessioncouldn’tbeprevented. Post-bubblestockmarket:financialandrealestatedeclined,exportdifferentiated,consumptiondowngraded,technologybubbleboomed.�Thepopulationdeclinewasaccelerating,andthebankcreditcrisisemerged,leadingtoanegativeten-yearabsolutereturn.②Export-orientedindustrieswerepolarizedthattechnologicaladvantagesoutweighedcostadvantages.Industrieswithhighprecisionandhighrunning-indegreeexpandedtheirexportsharesandstockpriceshaverisen.③"Sanshari"and"OtakuCulture"wereprevalent;thestatusofwomenhasimproved;thesalesofgoodshaveincreasednegatively,andtheimportanceofserviceconsumptionhasincreased.④Theoutdatedgovernment-ledsystem,theemphasisoncraftsmanship,andthetendencyofthewholesocietytoavoidriskshaveresultedinJapan'sfailuretocatchupwiththeinformationtechnologyrevolution.However,thespillovereffectoftheUSInternetbubbleledJapanesetechnologystockstoriseaswellinthe1990s. ThefutureofAshares:high-endmanufacturing,massconsumption,cutting-edgetechnology.�Realestate:Oncethelong-termturningpointcomes,itwillbedifficulttoreverse,andindustrieswhereinvestmentrealestateaccountsforahighproportionofliabilitiesfacetheriskofbalancesheetrecession;②Manufacturing:Theadvantagesofcomplexequipmentwillcontinue.Thetransferoflow-endmanufacturingindustrychainisinevitable.③Consumption:women,middle-agedandelderly,andservice-orientedconsumptionbecamepopular;therealestatechainandhigh-endconsumptionmayremainsluggishforalongtime.④Technology:Globalindustrialtransformationbenefits,wesuggestinvestorstopayattentiontorelevantdomesticemergingtechnologycompanies. Risks:Experienceisnotindicativeofthefuture;Less-than-expectedtechnologicaldevelopmentsandpolicyadvancements;Geopoliticalrisks. 26September2022ResearchAnalyst ShiruiOuyang (852)38923120 ouyangshirui@dwzq.com.hk Relatedreports 《流动性缩窄下的复苏配置——策略周聚焦》 2022-07-17 《【东吴策略】市场情绪降温，内外资偏消费——市场温度计》 2022-07-12 《逆回购缩量下的板块成交热度 ——策略周聚焦》 2022-07-10 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticular itsemployeesPeiYao(姚佩)and YanshuXing(邢妍姝). 东吴证券（香港） 1/30 日本90s：资产负债表衰退与股市泡沫 报告要点 当下中国宏观因子类似日本1980-90年代。�日本经济高速发展阶段与我国极为相似，包括而不限于：1）在经济高速增长之初，以举国体制奠定工业化基础；2）在全球化过程中，出口成为驱动经济高增的重要因素；3）同属东亚文化圈，共享追求稳定、储蓄率高等社会现象。② 从GDP增速、人均GDP、出口占比、人口结构和地价走势等多个因素对比，我国目前的发展阶段与日本80-90年代较为相似。 日本泡沫经济始末：从“广场协议”到“失去的十年”。�二战后日本崛起，日美竞争加剧，巨额贸易逆差触发贸易战风险。②1985年“广场协议”签署，日元升值、美元贬值，成为日本泡沫经济的开端。③为应对“日元升值不景气”，日本货币财政政策极度宽松，大量剩余流动 性涌入股市和房地产市场，催生资产泡沫。④“广场协议”后，“卢浮宫协议”签署，美国经济霸权地位巩固。 泡沫破灭：90年代“失去的十年”。🕔“资产负债表衰退”：企业部门主动收缩负债，实体资金需求降低导致“流动性陷阱”，货币宽松所释放的流动性难以流入实体。②少子化+老龄化：劳动人口减少、税收增长难有支撑、政府债务高企，日本财政状况长期恶化，可持续性存疑之 下面临崩溃风险。③货币财政政策失效：储蓄高增、长期需求不足，“低欲望社会”下，即便政府采取强有力的货币和财政刺激政策，依然无法扭转经济长期衰退。 泡沫后的股市：金融地产没落、出口分化、消费降级、科技泡沫盛宴。 �金融地产：人口下行加速，银行信用危机暴露，十年绝对收益为负。 ②出口导向行业分化：技术优势突围、成本优势丧失。汽车、电气设备、医疗器材、生物制药，符合日式生产组织高精度、高磨合度特征，出口份额扩张，股价上行。③低欲望社会的消费降级：低端零售、居家娱乐崛起。“断舍离”、“宅文化”盛行，女性地位提升，商品销售负增，服务型消费重要性提升。④科技：错失第三次工业变革，不妨碍泡沫盛宴。政府主导体制不合时宜，产业内重工艺轻市场，以及全社会风险回避倾向导致日本错失信息技术革命，但美国科网泡沫外溢效应下，日本科技股90年代领涨。 A股的未来方向：高端制造、大众消费、前沿科技。从日本经济泡沫化以及泡沫破灭后的经济社会和股市表现出发，值得我国的借鉴之处主要有以下几个方面：�房地产：长期拐点一旦来临，难以扭转，投资性房地产占负债比例较高的行业，包括房地产服务、一般零售、医疗美容等， 存在“资产负债表衰退”风险；②制造：复杂装备优势延续，低端制造逐步转移。优势产业特征在于模块化架构和复杂装备，具体包括光伏、电动车、高铁等；低端制造也纺织、家具、工业金属等产业链转移不可避免。