黄金白银日报：美债收益率和美国股市攀升，风险偏好回升抑制金银

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 美债收益率和美国股市攀升，风险偏好回升抑制金银 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1810.361814.081794.801802.31-0.07-0.54伦敦银24.9325.3124.7625.25-0.05-1.62纽约金1810.601814.401794.301801.90-0.08-0.72纽约银25.1625.2124.9625.241.04-2.09上期金382.52382.54376.02376.72-0.75-1.25上期银5271.005307.005195.005299.000.99-3.81上金T+D379.47380.48374.26375.11-0.72-1.22上银T+D 5220.005238.005134.005230.000.83-3.74CRB商品208.99213.09208.99212.981.910.19LME 铜9342.509384.009260.509347.000.12-0.85WTI66.4570.5166.4470.360.09-2.02布伦特68.9272.3868.6372.290.08-1.77美元92.98293.19192.72692.8250.080.15欧美1.17811.18051.17521.1789-0.04-0.14澳美0.73300.73630.72900.7346-0.18-0.74人民币6.47876.48056.46606.46800.26-0.17美10年期TIPS-1.0559-1.0090-1.0850-1.023.323.26美10年期国债收益率134.5313134.8281133.9844134.09-0.010.23美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.08612.12672.08072.100.00-0.86 黄金ETF VIX 15.310015.320014.930015.010.002.81白银ETF VIX29.670029.880028.930029.27-1.451.35黄金7月20日7月21日白银7月20日7月21日上金T+D-AU2112-1.79-2.28上银T+D-AG2112-50-74AU2206-AU21122.522.5AG2206-AG21129291伦敦金/伦敦银72.6271.41上金/上银72.6572.36纽约金/纽约银73.1272.23期金/期银73.1272.23金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-7-211028.55033,068,82817321.89-129.725569115862021-7-201028.55033068828.0717451.61224.87561082438昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金322232220上周本周增减上期银19823491963973-1837612327541209313-23441贵金属市场信息表周三因风险偏好回升，现货黄金一度失守1800美元/盎司大关，日内最多跌近20美元，最终收跌0.37%，报1803.16美元/盎司；现货白银一度下破25美元/盎司关口，但随后反弹，最终收涨1.35%，报25.26美元/盎司。避险美元从三个多月高位回落，因风险偏好回升，股市走高。现货黄金下跌，收报1803.66美元/盎司，为近二周来最低水平，风险胃纳恢复，股市和美债收益率反弹令金价承压。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日持平至1028.55吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日减持129.72吨至17321.89吨，机构投资者观望金银。基金持仓白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息因美债收益率上涨和股市继续反弹削弱了避险需求；一系列企业财报转移了市场对疫情经济影响的关注，提振美国股市上涨；10年期美国国债收益率在1.2%上方进一步上升，避险需求下降削弱了黄金吸引力。国际金价1800美元关口险失守，白银回踩至25美元。国内，谨慎投资者保持观望；稳健投资者采取高抛低吸交易。 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年7月22日星期四 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 1【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-7-22合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2107.SHF367.500.000.0087000AU2108.SHF372.681.720.4631,828-1,762543,77714,582AU2109.SHF373.041.600.432551,56242AU2110.SHF373.421.900.5139,719-651894,85823,962AU2112.SHF373.881.920.52165,679-1,4604,990,919133,466AU2202.SHF374.541.740.477,159809264,6447,064AU2204.SHF375.621.140.301360752AU2206.SHF376.141.420.381,0207110,294273全部合约245,653-2,9886,706,129179,391合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2107.SHF5,472.0091.001.695,450-2603,552434AG2108.SHF5,492.0094.001.7415,796-48323,9912,923AG2109.SHF5,505.0093.001.7249,753-194330,82940,242AG2110.SHF5,520.0093.001.7130,605-289237,32428,784AG2111.SHF5,534.0091.001.6722,337-271105,14912,719AG2112.SHF5,548.0093.001.70436,95113,2905,187,082625,507AG2201.SHF5,565.0092.001.681,4997368,7458,272AG2202.SHF5,581.0097.001.77301541,022122AG2203.SHF5,592.0098.001.78117011714AG2204.SHF5,600.0081.001.47117414317AG2205.SHF5,611.0076.001.3763-731137AG2206.SHF5,631.0081.001.46381501,543183全部合约563,37011,9675,959,807719,254 020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000AU2107.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2109.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHFAU2204.SHFAU2206.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... -1,762 5 -651 -1,460 809 0 71 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000AU2107.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2109.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHFAU2204.SHFAU2206.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-260 -483 -194 -289 -271 13,290 73 54 0 4 -7 50 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -8-6-4-20246810121000101010201030104010501060黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-150-100-50050100150200160001650017000175001800018500持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (4.00)(3.50)(3.00)(2.50)(2.00)(1.50)(1.00)(0.50)0.00355360365370375380385390上期金远近合约价差及走势2206-2112沪金2206沪金21120.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.00330038004300480053005800630068007300上银期现基差及走势现-近期沪银2012SGE白银T+D 0500100015002000250030003500400045002020-07-202020-08-042020-08-192020-09-032020-09-182020-10-032020-10-182020-11-022