黄金白银日报：美债收益率回升，美元走强金银承压下行

东吴期货研究所 021-63123063 www.dwfutures.com 323 美债收益率回升，美元走强金银承压下行 类别品种开盘最高最低收盘单日涨跌%5日涨跌%伦敦金1738.361740.691702.041714.910.22-1.10伦敦银26.7626.8325.8426.190.35-1.81纽约金1736.501739.101699.401713.40-0.14-0.89纽约银26.8126.8125.9426.19-0.63-0.80上期金364.20365.00357.26360.44-0.79-3.15上期银5467.005559.005365.005449.00-0.80-4.62上金T+D361.20362.98355.20358.37-0.86-3.00上银T+D 5363.005485.005301.005381.00-0.76-4.03CRB商品189.98190.77189.35189.96-0.01-0.25LME 铜9256.509257.509073.009101.50-0.750.27WTI59.5561.9959.2461.27-0.02-0.37布伦特62.3864.7062.3864.072.19-3.12美元90.79291.06390.63290.9470.180.07欧美1.20911.21131.20431.2059-0.03-0.13澳美0.78200.78380.77530.77780.040.93人民币6.46756.47256.45666.46790.04-0.17美10年期TIPS-0.8039-0.7374-0.8071-0.75-0.59-0.1美10年期国债收益率134.7344134.7344133.9531134.06-0.060.2美5Y5Y通胀平衡预期2.01292.05432.00252.040.004.27 黄金ETF VIX 20.610021.850014.140020.934.34-0.71白银ETF VIX45.260045.570043.080044.15-3.12-12.73黄金3月2日3月3日白银3月2日3月3日上金T+D-AU2106-1.65-2.22上银T+D-AG2106-63-61AU2112-AU210644.28AG2112-AG2106104111伦敦金/伦敦银64.9765.67上金/上银67.2966.22纽约金/纽约银64.7065.51期金/期银64.7065.51金衡盎司盎司日期持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量持有量（吨）持仓量增减持有量2021-3-31082.38-4.7434,799,65518880.3546.226070172512021-3-21087.122.6234952043.8718834.13-117.38605531440昨日库存本日库存库存增减上期金386138610上周本周增减上期银26062862596489-979712327541209313-23441贵金属市场信息表现货黄金周三亚盘在1730-1740美元的窄幅区间波动，欧盘开始震荡走低，小非农数据公布前金价就出现一波短线下拉，隔夜最低触及1701.82美元，较日高回落逾30美元，之后又出现一波超过20美元的短线上拉，最终收跌1.56%，报1710.87美元/盎司。现货白银盘中一度跌超3%，最终收跌2.57%，报26.06美元/盎司。10年期美债收益率周三欧盘开始走高，从1.4%下方一度逼近1.5%水平。美国5年期通胀保值债券盈亏平衡率一度达2.5%，创2008年以来新高。美指一度回升至91关口上方，最终收涨0.19%，报90.96。宏观和基本面贵金属相关品种比价价差品种相关性iShares白银ETFSPDR黄金ETF全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日减持4.74吨至1082.38吨。白银ETF--iSharesSilverTrust持仓较上日增持46.22吨至18880.35吨，市场谨慎偏空金银基金持仓白银可用库容量 千克交易策略库存信息美元指数走高，美债收益率大幅攀升以及股市下跌推动美元反弹；日元跌至七个月低点。随着国债收益率继续上涨，持有黄金的机会成本也在提高。美债收益率继续上扬、美元走强，令金价承压目前金价重跌至1800美元整数关口下方，白银回踩至26美元技术关口上方。谨慎投资者短期维持观望，稳健投资者白银多单减持或平仓。 快手必读---黄金白银日报 东吴期货研究所 宏观与金融工程组 万 涛 021-63123175 从业证书：F0288751 投资咨询证书：Z0012259 期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究所办公地址： 上海市-黄浦区西藏南路1208号6楼 苏州市-工业园区星阳街5 号东吴证券大楼8楼 2021年3月4日星期四 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 2 页 【市场信息参考】 每日交易行情表 2021-3-4合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AU2103.SHF364.180.000.0027000AU2104.SHF360.80-4.58-1.2514,1326881,526,83542,255AU2105.SHF361.28-3.96-1.0811092,57571AU2106.SHF361.74-3.66-1.00143,5916,9437,451,228205,450AU2108.SHF363.28-4.96-1.3523,2602,4731,406,81138,685AU2110.SHF364.80-5.64-1.5212,399536667,53818,272AU2112.SHF365.74-4.18-1.131,77015126,918736AU2202.SHF366.12-3.80-1.0347-155215全部合约195,33610,79911,082,457305,484合约收盘价 元涨跌 元涨跌幅 %持仓量 手持仓量变化 手成交额 万元成交量 手AG2103.SHF5,351.00-134.00-2.4418,476-3,53056,4247,010AG2104.SHF5,370.00-113.00-2.0621,345-1,31267,9978,343AG2105.SHF5,392.00-118.00-2.1430,2231,330650,97779,391AG2106.SHF5,414.00-109.00-1.97440,446-3769,037,9171,098,347AG2107.SHF5,437.00-115.00-2.0743,0921,934749,17690,774AG2108.SHF5,454.00-127.00-2.2816,6423,132215,54126,084AG2109.SHF5,479.00-117.00-2.092,24925925,7053,116AG2110.SHF5,498.00-130.00-2.31552624,219511AG2111.SHF5,519.00-131.00-2.327675117,2242,074AG2112.SHF5,518.00-136.00-2.417,11631640,1934,800AG2201.SHF5,549.00-119.00-2.102011477993AG2202.SHF5,568.00-127.00-2.2369-581897全部合约581,1781,87510,866,9701,320,640 050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量...0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,000上期银持仓量与成交量持仓量手成交量... 688 9 6,943 2,473 536 151 -1 -20,000020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000AU2103.SHFAU2104.SHFAU2105.SHFAU2106.SHFAU2108.SHFAU2110.SHFAU2112.SHFAU2202.SHF上期金持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手-3,530 -1,312 1,330 -376 1,934 3,132 259 62 51 316 14 -5 -50,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,000400,000450,000500,000上期银持仓量与持仓量变化持仓量变化...持仓量手 东吴期货研究所 www.dwfutures.com 第 3 页 金银基金持仓和CFTC非商业持仓量主要数据跟踪 -15-10-5051015201020104010601080110011201140116011801200黄金持仓量增减（吨）黄金ETF持有量-1000-500050010001500200016000170001800019000200002100022000持仓量增减（吨）白银i s hares持仓量 (5.00)(4.50)(4.00)(3.50)(3.00)(2.50)(2.00)(1.50)(1.00)(0.50)0.00340350360370380390400上期金远近合约价差及走势2112-2106沪金2112沪金21060.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.00120.00140.004000450050005500600065002020-09-092020-09-112020-09-132020-09-152020-09-172020-09-192020-09-212020-09-232020-09-252020-09-272020-09-292020-10-012020-10-032020-10-052020-10-072020-10-092020-10-112020-10-132020-10-152020-10-172020-10-192020-10-212020-10-232020-10-252020-10-27上期银远近合约价差及走势2106-2012沪银2012沪银2106 (12.00)(10.00)(8.00)(6.00)(4.00)(2.00)0.00350370390410430450470上金期现基差及走势现-近期沪金2012SGE黄金T+D(120.00)(100.00)(80.00)(60.00)(40.00)(20.00)0.0020.0040.003300380043004800530058006