有色金属行业：关注钴锂板块趋势性机会，中期看好铜铝修复

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明1 证券研究报告·个股深度报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·行业周报 证券研究报告·行业报告 市场表现  一周行情回顾：上周，沪深300指数上涨2.25%，有色板块上涨10.46%，跑赢沪深300指数8.21个百分点。有色金属板块中，所有子板块均上涨，其中锂和其他稀有小金属板块涨幅居前，分别为27.33%和20.93%。1月海外新能源汽车销售超预期，同时特斯拉交付量以及国产化率的提升将使得本土锂电材料企业明显收益，锂电材料板块持续强势。  有色金属价格变化：近期，政府逆周期调节力度加码，央行加大公开市场资金投放力度，财政部提前下达2020年新增地方政府债务限额8,480亿元，稳定市场信心，基本金属价格低位企稳。受近期国内利率下行影响，国内黄金价格走强，上海现货黄金价格上涨0.56%至353.79元/克。钴锂市场方面，上周金属钴价格上涨1.06%至28.5万元/吨，硫酸钴价格上涨5.77%为5.5万元/吨，四氧化三钴价格上涨7.89%至20.5万元/吨，碳酸锂价格上涨0.51%至4.9万元/吨，氢氧化锂价格上涨0.92%至5.5万元/吨。受供应偏紧影响，部分小金属品种价格大幅上涨，其中电解锰价格上涨11.67%至1.34万元/吨，锑价格上涨3.8%至4.1万元/吨。  行业资讯及公司公告：2019年英美资源镍产量42.6kt，同比增加1%；嘉能可与三星 SDI签订供货协议，计划5年向后者供应2.1万吨钴；金矿开采量却录得近十年首次下滑；盛屯矿业拟投资年产3.4万吨镍金属高冰镍项目；华友钴业拟发行股份购买华友衢州15.68%股权并募集资金8亿元。  投资建议：本周个股建议积极关注：矿产铜领先的铜业巨头江西铜业（600362.SH），资源和冶炼规模持续扩张的云南铜业（000878.SZ）；产能持续扩张的云铝股份（000807.SZ），铝业巨头中国铝业（601600.SZ）。同时，同时，锂电材料领域，建议关注成本领先的锂资源龙头天齐锂业（002466.SZ）、锂电材料优质企业赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）、钴业龙头企业华友钴业（603799.SH）。  风险提示：疫情发展超预期；矿山大幅投产，有色金属供给增加；全球经济增速大幅下降；全球资本市场系统性风险。 指数/板块 过去一周涨跌幅（%） 过去一月涨跌幅（%） 年初至今涨跌幅（%） 上证综指 1.43 -5.75 -4.36 深证成指 2.87 0.17 4.65 创业板指 2.45 4.15 10.96 沪深300 2.25 -4.24 -2.66 有色（申万） 10.46 -1.13 3.17 工业金属 5.87 -8.56 -7.1 金属新材料 6.4 -1.31 5.15 黄金 6.34 -4.48 -0.33 稀有金属 19.79 8.27 14.5 股价表现（最近一年） 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：杨靖磊 执业证书编号：S1050518080001 联系人：谢玉磊 电话：021-54967579 邮箱：xieyl@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn -5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%有色金属(申万)沪深3002020年02月17日 有色金属 关注钴锂板块趋势性机会，中期看好铜铝修复 行业评级：中性 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 证券研究报告·行业报告 目录 1． 本周观点及投资建议 .......................................................................... 3 2． 一周行情回顾 ................................................................................ 3 2.1 有色板块大幅走强，钴锂板块涨幅居前 ························································································································ 3 2.2 逆周期政策发力，有色板块估值修复 ···························································································································· 4 3． 行业资讯及重点公司公告 ...................................................................... 5 3.1 行业资讯 ············································································································································································ 5 3.2 重要公司公告 ···································································································································································· 6 4． 有色金属价格及库存 .......................................................................... 7 4.1. 有色金属价格 ··································································································································································· 7 4.2. 基本金属库存 ··································································································································································· 8 5． 风险提示 ................................................................................... 10 图表1：上周各行业板块涨跌幅 ............................................................................................................................................................. 3 图表2：上周有色金属子板块涨跌幅 ..................................................................................................................................................... 4 图表3：有色行业股票一周涨跌幅前十位 ............................................................................................................................................. 4 图表4：有色行业股票一周涨跌幅后十位 ............................................................................................................................................. 4 图表5：申万一级行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ................................................................................................................................. 5 图表6：有色金属行业滚动市盈率（单位：倍） ................................................................................................................................. 5 图表 7 基本金属和贵金属涨跌幅 .......................................................................................................................................................... 7 图表8：小金属价格涨跌幅 ..................................................................................................................................................................... 7 图表9：稀土涨跌幅 ................................................................................................................................................................................. 8 图表10：铜价及库存 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 图表11：铝价及库存 ............................................................................................................................................................................... 9 图表12：锌价及库存 .............................