-连锁经营的魅力：中国内地稳健扩张,以期复制香港成功运作模式

Company Research Café de Coral (341.HK) January 10, 2012 For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1 Café de Coral（341.HK） Neutral | Target price: HK$22.6 The Blossom of Chain Management in Mainland China: Continuation of HK’s Success Investment Highlights  Corporation Summary: Established in 1968, Café de Coral Group is a leading food corporation in Hong Kong; Up to late September 2012, the group operates 593 restaurants, including Café de Coral, the Spaghetti House, Manchu Wok, Espressamente illy, Super Super Congee and Noodles, etc.; in 2011/12, the corporation received a revenue of 5,950mn and a profit of 473mn.  HK Business: Emphasis on Multiple Brand Building. With a market share of 5.4% (only second to Maxim’s 9.1%), Café de Coral Group is a top corporation in HK’s food industry. Since this industry strides towards saturation, the number of stores is predicted to grow annually by only 2-3%. In our case, with the number of stores already reaching 150, the average annual increase of stores is therefore expected to be merely around 5. Accordingly, we believe that its future development must be realized through brand management and brand building.  Mainland Business: Gaining Aggressive Momentum. China’s food industry expects to grow by more than 16% in the next 3 years and the chain fast food industry enjoys the fastest development of all. The comparatively scattered distribution of stores additionally brings more room for improvement to superior food companies. The group’s managers suggest that they are about to open 30 stores in the Mainland in 2013, especially in Southern China. Predictably, there will be over 20 newly opened stores in the Mainland, generating more than half of the group’s revenue.  Leading the Restaurant Design and Improving the Procedural Efficiency Constantly. The company’s stable development is primarily ascribed to the constant update of products, the management of cost, the renovation of stores and the improvement of procedural efficiency.  The Long-term Increase of Shareholder Dividends. The company has long kept a relatively high dividend rate of return and an all-time climbing dividend absolute value. In 2011-12, the dividend payout ratio reached 74.6%.  We give a NEUTRAL rating for our initial coverage, with a PT of HK$ 22.6. The company’s potential highlight lies in the growth performance brought by the high-speed expansion in the Mainland, the long-term revenue generation in HK and the success of multiple brand building. We suggest a neutral rating for investment and a PT of HK$ 22.6 in 12 months. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E Turnover (HK$ m) 5,333 5,956 6,551 7,301 8,097 Turnover Growth (%) 9.2% 11.7% 10.0% 11.4% 10.9% Net Profit (HK$ m) 514 474 545 616 710 Net Profit Growth (%) 0.2% -7.9% 15.1% 12.9% 15.2% EPS (HK$) 91.6 83.8 96.4 108.9 125.5 CFO per share (HK$) 1.04 1.29 1.50 1.79 1.99 P/E (x) 24.6 26.9 23.4 20.7 18.0 Dividend per share(HK$) 87.4 62.5 72.3 81.7 94.1 Source: Guosen Securities (HK) Analyst Food & Beverage Yang Nanxiang SFC CE No.:AYJ777 00852-2899 8328 yangnx@guosen.com.hk performance Source: Google finance Price(HK$) 22.2 Shares Outstanding (m) 259.5 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 12,721 Free float (%) 54.7 52 Week Range 17.32/23.55 Controlling Shareholder Lo family & associates (45.3%) BVPS (HK$) 5.7 Debt ratio (%) 20.7 Key Data 公司报告 大家乐集团（341.HK） 2013年1月10日 国信证券（香港） 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 大家乐集团 (341.HK) 中性 | 目标价: HK$22.6 | 潜在升幅：1.8% 连锁经营的魅力：中国内地稳健扩张，以期复制香港成功运作模式 投资要点  大家乐集团概要：大家乐集团成立于1968年，是香港领先的餐饮企业；截至2012年9月底，公司共经营593家餐厅，包括大家乐快餐厅、意粉屋、Manchu Wok、“Espressamente illy”、一粥面等；2011/12财年公司分别实现收入59.5亿港元及利润4.73亿。  香港业务重在拓展多种风味品牌餐厅：大家乐集团是香港餐饮业优势企业，市占率达到5.4%（仅次于美心9.1%）；由于香港餐饮行业已经趋于饱和，预计未来几年餐厅门店数年增速仅2-3%，而“大家乐”快餐门店数目已高达150家，预计年均自然门店增长量仅在5间左右；据此，我们认为，未来大家乐在香港的发展必将通过多品牌门店拓展及新建立品牌来实现。  大陆业务进入快速外延式增长阶段：预计中国餐饮行业未来3年将保持16%以上的年间增速，而连锁快餐是发展最快一种餐饮业态，此外，较为分散的行业格局给优质餐饮公司更多拓展空间；公司管理层表示2013财年将在大陆新增30家门店，主要将聚焦华南地区，我们预计未来年新增门店数量将保持在20家以上，公司将有超过一半的收入增长来自大陆地区。  领导业内餐厅设计，不断提升业务流程效率：公司长期稳健经营，主要得益于产品不断更新、成本控制、店面翻新及提升业务流程效率来保持经营优势。其中，我们认为，公司进行店面翻新对维持品牌形象及吸引客户方面起到较大的正面作用，而运营资讯科技进行业务流程改善是提升运营效率进行成本节省的关键所在。  长期保障股东权益：公司长期保持较高的股息回报率，2011/12财年派息率达74.6%，在可追溯历史期内，大家乐集团股息绝对值长期处于上升趋势，未出现任何一年低于往年的水平。  首次给予 “中性” 评级，目标价22.6港元：公司潜在的亮点在于大陆业务高速扩张所带来的业绩增长，以及香港地区同店收入长期提升且多品牌发展顺利。投资建议为中性，12个月目标价22.6港元。 盈利预测 截至31/03 2011A 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 营业额(HK$, m) 5,333 5,956 6,551 7,301 8,097 增长(Y/Y,%) 9.2% 11.7% 10.0% 11.4% 10.9% 净利润(HK$, m) 514 474 545 616 710 增长(Y/Y,%) 0.2% -7.9% 15.1% 12.9% 15.2% 每股收益(港仙) 91.6 83.8 96.4 108.9 125.5 每股经营现金流(HK$) 1.04 1.29 1.50 1.79 1.99 市盈率(x) 24.6 26.9 23.4 20.7 18.0 每股派息(港仙) 87.4 62.5 72.3 81.7 94.1 资料来源：国信香港 分析师 杨南翔（食品饮料行业） 证监会中央编号: AYJ777 00852-2899 8328 yang