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华芳纺织(600273):新能源动力电池黑马,传统纺织强劲反弹

嘉化能源,6002732010-03-22李大军华创证券改***
华芳纺织(600273):新能源动力电池黑马,传统纺织强劲反弹

ᭀ䇋䯙䇏ג᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ໄᯢ 2010ᑈ03᳜15᮹ ݀ৌ⏅ᑺⷨおᮄ㛑⑤ढ㢇㒎㒛 6+ ܗᮄ㛑⑤ࡼ࡯⬉∴咥偀ˈӴ㒳㒎㒛ᔎࢆডᔍ ⷨおਬ˖ ߽催 㘨㋏Ҏ˖ ݯᴢ໻ Tel˖ 010-59370821 Email˖ lidj@hczq.com ⣀ࠄ㾕㾷 ᡩ䌘䆘㑻ᡩ䌘䆘㑻˖᥼㤤䆘㑻বࡼ˖佪⃵䆘㑻 ݀ৌ෎ᴀ᭄᥂ᘏ㙵ᴀ ϛ㙵 ⌕䗮 $ 㙵% 㙵 ϛ㙵 䌘ѻ䋳؎⥛  ↣㙵ޔ䌘ѻ ܗ ᏖⲜ⥛ ס Ꮦޔ⥛ ס  Ͼ᳜ݙ᳔催᳔ԢӋᏖഎ㸼⦄ᇍ↨೒ 䖥  Ͼ᳜ ̚09-309-609-909-12≾⏅ढ㢇㒎㒛䌘᭭ᴹ⑤˖␃▇䌘䆃ǃ$ 㙵䫖࡯ࡼ⬉∴咥偀ˈᡔᴃǃ㾘῵乚ܜDŽ⦄࡯ࡼ⬉∴Ꮖܼ䴶⫳ѻˈ ᑈৃ䋵⤂ (36ܗDŽ⦄㙵Ӌ䖬≵᳝ԧ⦄ᮄ㛑⑤ǃ䫖࡯ࡼ⬉∴Ϯࡵˈ݀ৌ᳾㹿Ꮦഎ䅸ⶹˈЎᮄ㛑⑤㸠Ϯᮄᷛⱘˈ݋᳝䕗໻Ϟछぎ䯈DŽǃ㒎㒛Ϯࡵ䖢ᴹᔎϞछ਼ᳳDŽ ᑈҹᴹẝ㒅Ꮖ  ⃵ᦤӋDŽ儣ḹ㒎㒛ⱘ䇗ⷨ㒧ᵰг䆕ᯢ䖭辵䍟࢓DŽ乘䅵㒎㒛Ϯ ࡵ ᑈৃ䋵⤂ (36 ܗˈ䖰䍙Ꮦഎ乘ᳳDŽᡩ䌘㽕⚍ ǃࡼ࡯⬉∴˖䫖࡯ࡼ⬉∴䆒䅵  ᴵ⫳ѻ㒓ˈ⦄ϔᴵ⫳ѻ㒓Ꮖܼ䴶⫳ѻ˗೑ݙᏆ䫔ଂ  ϛऩԧˈ໻䰚ǃৄ⑒ഛ᳝䅶䋻ˈ䚼ߚѻકߎষ⃻㕢˗ѻક䋼䞣ܼ䴶䍙䖛೑ᆊᷛޚ˗⦄ѻકЏ㽕⫼Ѣ⬉ࡼ㞾㸠䔺ㄝˈ໻ࡳ⥛≑䔺࡯ࡼ⬉∴Ꮖ㒣໘Ѣⷨথ䰊↉DŽ乘䅵  ᑈৃⲜ ߽ ϛܗDŽ2ǃ⬉㾷⎆˖䆒䅵ѻ㛑Ў5000ৼˈЎϪ⬠᳔໻ⱘ⻋䝌䪕䫖⬉㾷⎆⫳ѻ㒓DŽѻક㒓ᅝ㺙ᅠ↩ˈ⫳ѻ㒓䋼䞣㦋ᕫ㕢೑ǃ᮹ᴀǃ䶽೑催ᑺ䅸ৃˈᑊ᳝ড়԰ৃ㛑DŽ乘䅵6᳜ӑ䞣ѻˈ⦄Ꮖ᳝䅶ऩDŽ乘䅵2010ᑈৃⲜ߽1500ϛܗDŽ 3ǃ㒎㒛Ϯ˖ẝ㒎Ϯࡵᭈԧ໡㢣ˈ䍙ग़৆催⚍DŽⳂࠡѻકկϡᑨ∖ˈ䅶ऩᏆࠄ5ߎ⃵ݡ᳜ˈ⦄ᥦ䯳ㄝ䋻⦄䈵DŽẝ㒅ǃಸẝഛ᳝໻ᐙछؐDŽϔᄷᑺৢϮ㒽ᇚ䗤ℹ䞞ᬒDŽ 4ǃᭈԧϞᏖ˖ ᑈ᳒䅵ߦᭈԧϞᏖˈৢ಴䞥㵡ॅᴎ᱖ذˈ ᑈᄬ೼ᭈԧϞᏖৃ㛑DŽ 5ǃԄؐϢᡩ䌘ᓎ䆂˖乘䅵2010ᑈ੠2011ᑈEPSЎ߿ߚ0.5੠ܗ0.72ܗˈᇍᑨPE 23੠ס16סˈԢѢᮄ㛑⑤㸠ϮԄؐDŽ݀ৌᮄ㛑⑤Ϯࡵথሩ䖙䗳ˈ঺᳝ᭈԧϞᏖ乘ᳳˈᣝ30סPEˈ㙵ӋᑨЎ15ܗDŽᣝߚ↉Ԅؐˈ㒎㒛20סPE*0.4ܗ+ᮄ㛑⑤60סPE*0.1ܗˈ㙵ӋᑨЎ14ˈ⦄ܗ12ܗ㹿ԢԄˈ᥼㤤фܹDŽ 亢䰽ᦤ冫 ࡯ࡼ⬉∴ᄬ೼ⷨথ亢䰽˗ᭈԧϞᏖᄬ೼ϡ⹂ᅮᗻ˗ẝ㢅੠ẝ㒅ӋḐ໻ᐙ⊶ࡼ亢䰽DŽ Џ㽕䋶ࡵᣛᷛ$(((Џ㧹ᬊܹ ⱒϛ 1732 1482 2246 2705 ৠ↨๲䗳  -2%-14%52%20%߽ޔ⍺ ⱒϛ 3 -41 159 228 ৠ↨๲䗳  -94%-1464%289%44%↣㙵Ⲝ߽ ܗ 0.01 -0.13 0.50 0.72 ᏖⲜ⥛ ס 1231.46 -90.27 23.19 16.15 Ⳍ݇ⷨお᡹ਞ ᭀ䇋䯙䇏ג᭛Пৢⱘܡ䋷ໄᯢ ݀ৌ⏅ᑺⷨお2/ 31Ⳃᔩϔǃ ݀ৌᘏԧ߸ᮁ˖ᮄ㛑⑤ࡼ࡯⬉∴咥偀ˈӴ㒳㒎㒛Ϯࡵᔎࢆডᔍ............................................ 4 1ǃ 䲚ಶ݀ৌᅲ࡯ᔎ໻ˈᭈԧϞᏖৃᳳ...................................................................................... 4 2ǃ ݀ৌϮ㒽ᇚ೼2010ᑈߎ⦄ᢤ⚍............................................................................................ 4 3ǃ ⬉∴Ϯࡵ໘Ѣ࡯ࡼ⬉∴Ӌؐ䕗催ⱘϸϾ⦃㡖ˈгᰃA㙵ϞᏖ݀ৌଃϔ࡯ࡼ⬉∴ӕϮ... 5 Ѡǃ ࡼ࡯⬉∴˖Ꮖܼ䴶䫔ଂˈ2010ᑈৃ䋵⤂EPS 0.05ܗ.............................................................. 6 1ǃ 䫖⬉∴ᡔᴃ䏃㒓˖݀ৌᅮԡ催ッ࡯ࡼ⬉∴.......................................................................... 7 2ǃ 㞾ࡼ࣪⫳ѻ㒓˖໻䚼ߚЎᅮࠊ⫳ѻ...................................................................................... 9 3ǃ ѻકϢᑨ⫼˖Ⳃࠡ⬉ࡼ㞾㸠䔺⬉∴Џ㽕䫔ᕔ⃻㕢.............................................................. 9 4ǃ ⬉∴ѻક䋼䞣˖ܼ䴶䍙䖛೑ᆊᷛޚ.................................................................................... 10 5ǃ 䫖࡯ࡼ⬉∴䳔∖ߚᵤ˖⦄ҹ⬉ࡼᎹ݋ǃ⬉ࡼ㞾㸠䔺ǃᨽᠬ䔺ǃ㾖ܝ䔺ЎЏ................ 12 5.1 ݋Ꮉࡼ⬉...................................................................................................................... 12 5.2 ⬉ࡼ㞾㸠䔺.................................................................................................................. 12 5.3 ᮄ㛑⑤≑䔺.................................................................................................................. 13 6ǃ 乘⌟ࡵ⬉∴Ϯ࡯ࡼৌ݀........................................................................................................ 13 ϝǃ ⬉㾷⎆˖ᡔᴃ乚ܜǃ៤ᴀӬ࢓ǃᅮԡ催ッˈ2010ᑈৃ䋵⤂EPS 0.05ܗ............................. 14 1ǃ ᡔᴃӬ࢓˖ᡔᴃᴹ⑤Ѣ㸠Ϯϧᆊ........................................................................................ 14 2ǃ ៤ᴀӬ࢓˖݋᳝೎ᅮ䌘ѻᡩ䌘ԢϢ݇䬂ॳ᭭䞛䌁Ӭ࢓.................................................... 15 3ǃ 㸠Ϯഄԡ˖ᅮԡ催ッˈ㸠Ϯ乚ܜ........................................................................................ 16 4ǃ ⬉㾷⎆ѻકϮࡵ乘⌟............................................................................................................ 16 5ǃ ᮄ㛑⑤ϮࡵᘏԧϮࡵ乘⌟.................................................................................................... 16 ಯǃ 㒎㒛Ϯ˖㸠Ϯܼ䴶໡㢣ˈ2010ᑈৃ䋵⤂EPS 0.41ܗ............................................................ 17 1ǃ ẝ㒎㸠Ϯ໻਼ᳳߚᵤ˖2010ᑈᓔྟⱘ㸠Ϯ᱃⇨ৃֱᣕ3-4ᑈ........................................ 17 2ǃ ẝ㒅˖䖲㓁ᦤӋˈ݀ৌѻકկϡᑨ∖ˈ↯߽⥛Ϟछ........................................................ 18 3ǃ 䴶᭭˖ӋḐ⬹᳝Ϟछˈҡ᳝৥Ϟぎ䯈................................................................................ 19 4ǃ ẝ㢅˖ӋḐ䖲㓁Ϟ⍼ˈټ໛ẝछؐ.................................................................................... 20 5ǃ 㒎㒛Ϯࡵ㓐ড়Ϯࡵ乘⌟˖ѠǃϝᄷᑺϮ㒽䗤ℹ䞞ᬒ........................................................ 20 6ǃ ݊ᅗ䞡㽕ᕅડ಴㋴ߚᵤ........................................................................................................ 21 6.1 2008ᑈǃ2009ᑈϮ㒽ϡདⱘЏ㽕ॳ಴................................................................. 21 6.2 ᢯Ꮉ䲒੠ࢇᎹ៤ᴀϞछ......................................................................................... 21 6.3 Ҏ⇥Ꮥछؐ............................................................................................................ 22 6.4 ॳᴤ᭭⍼Ӌ............................................................................................................ 22 7ǃ ৠ㸠ϮӕϮ儣ḹ㒎㒛˄2698.HK˅䇗ⷨ˖ẝ㒅㸠ϮℹܹϞछ䗮䘧................................. 23 Ѩǃ ᠓ഄѻ˖乘䅵2011ᑈ䋵⤂EPS 0.28ܗˈ᱖ϡԄؐ............................................................... 23 ݁ǃ খ㙵䞥㵡˖᱖ᯊ䋵⤂ϡ໻ˈㄝᕙ䌘ѻछؐ........................................