滨海投资 (08035 HK)：销气量增长性再次确认

GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Binhai Investment 滨海投资 (08035 HK) Company Report See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 5 Company Report: Binhai Investment (08035 HK) 中文版 Peter Sheng 盛骅公司报告：滨海投资 (08035 HK) Chinese version +86 755 23976675shenghua011681@gtjas.com 9 January 2014 Growth on Gas Sales Volume Reaffirms 销气量增长性再次确认 z Transparency of gas distribution volume growth increases as government air pollution control pressure hikes. Due to gas gate price being hiked and North China gas supply tightened in 2H13, we expect Binhai’s gas distribution volume in FY13 was around 400 million m3, which is lower than our previous expectation. However, we are more confident on Binhai’s gas distribution volumes in FY14 and FY15 now. z Strong connection service performance and one-off income may offset the weaker gas distribution performance in 2H13. We lift connection service gross profit margin assumption in FY13. There may be a one-off payoff from parent company regarding asset disposal and management in 4Q13. We expect the 4Q13 results may be lifted by the strong connection service segment and the one-off payoff. z Raise TP to HK$0.55, maintain ‘Accumulate’. We lift FY13-15 EPS forecasts by 20%, 10% and 6%, respectively. We are more confident on Binhai’s gas sales business and believe the Company’s fundamentals are healthy, while listing on HKEX main board could be a stock price catalyst. We raise our target price to HK$ 0.55, representing 27.4x FY14F PER or 14.5x FY15F PER. Maintain ‘Accumulate’. z 销气量增长透明度随着政府控制空气污染压力上升而提高。 由于 13 年下半年天然气门站价格上涨和华北气供应紧张，我们预计滨海13年的销气量约4亿立方米，较我们之前预期稍低。但是，我们现在对公司 14 年和 15 年销气量更有信心。 z 强劲的接驳业务业绩和一次性收入或抵消来自 13 年下半年较弱的销气业务影响。 我们上调13年公司接驳业务毛利率假设。13年4季度或有一笔来自母公司的资产处置和管理一次性收益。我们预计13年4季度业务或将由强劲的接驳业务板块和一次性收益提振。 z 升高目标价0.55港元，维持“收集”评级。我们分别上调13年至15年每股盈利预测20%，10%和6%。我们对滨海的销气业务更有信心，且相信公司的基本面是健康的。转主板或将成为一个股价催化剂。我们升高目标价至0.55港元，分别相当于27.4倍14年市盈率或14.5倍15年市盈率。维持“收集”评级。 Rating: Accumulate Maintained 评级： 收集 (维持)6-18m TP 目标价: HK$0.55Revised from 原目标价: HK$0.45 Share price 股价： HK$0.510 Stock performance 股价表现 Change in Share Price 股价变动 1 M 1个月 3 M 3个月 1 Y 1年 Abs. % 绝对变动 % 10.9 34.2 24.4 Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % 14.0 35.0 24.9 Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 0.5 0.4 0.4 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. Year End 年结 Turnover 收入 Net Profit 股东净利 EPS 每股净利 EPS每股净利变动PER市盈率BPS每股净资产PBR市净率DPS 每股股息 Yield 股息率 ROE净资产收益率12月31日 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%)2011A* 1,582 118 0.010 (54.2)50.20.05010.20.000 0.0 20.72012A 1,678 135 0.012 14.144.00.0618.40.000 0.0 19.52013F 2,133 160 0.013 15.938.00.0776.60.002 0.5 17.82014F 3,788 251 0.020 49.225.40.0995.20.002 0.5 20.92015F 6,058 473 0.038 88.8 13.5 0.138 3.7 0.005 1.1 28.7 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 6,832.9 Major shareholder 大股东 TEDA HK 44.0%Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 3,484.8^ Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 16.3 3 month average vol. 3个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 7,201.9 FY14 Net gearing (%) FY14净负债/股东资金 (%) 74.0 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52周高/低 0.520/0.350 FY14 NAV (HK$) FY14 每股估值 0.9 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. ^ The market cap calculation is based on the issued shares number instead of the one after converting 170 mn convertible preference shares. *The financial years are ended by 31th Mar. -20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%Jan/13Mar/13May/13Jul/13Sep/13Nov/13Jan/14% of return8035 HKHSI Index 9 January 2014 Binhai Investment 滨海投资 (08035 HK) Company Report 请见尾页免责声明 Page 2 of 5 销气量增长透明度随着政府控制空气污染压力上升而提高。由于13年下半年天然气门站价格上涨和华北气供应紧张，我们预计滨海13年的销气量约4亿立方米，较我们之前预期稍低。但是，我们现在对公司14年和15年销气量更有信心。 1）我们注意到天津与环保部签署了一份空气质量改善协议，该协议于2014年1月7日公布。我们预计天津空气质量改善压力增大将令煤改气进程加速。 表-1：地方政府签署的空气质量改善目标 空气质量改善目标 省/市PM2.5水平年均下降目标 -25%