DB Oily Rag：BG 2015年2季度业绩，欧洲石油和天然气2015年2季度回顾

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Europe United Kingdom Oil & Gas Integrated Oils Industry DB Oily Rag Date 31 July 2015 BG 2Q15 Results, European Oil and Gas 2Q15 Review ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/London Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Lucas Herrmann, ACA Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-73636 lucas.herrmann@db.com Mark Bloomfield, ACA Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-57905 mark.bloomfield@db.com Sebastian Yoshida Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-56489 sebastian.yoshida@db.com Tom Robinson Research Analyst (+44) 20 754-52468 thomas.robinson@db.com Franck Nganou Research Associate (+44) 20 754-18161 franck.nganou@db.com Commodity Prices and Margins Oil & Gas Pr icesLas tΔ QT DBrent crude oil53.31- 0.1%57.16WTI Cushing48.52- 0.6%51.59UK NBP ( p/therm)42.840.5%43.00UK NBP ( $/MMBTU)6.680.5%6.69Henry Hub( $/MMBTU)2.77- 4.1%2.81WCS- WTI Spread- 15.850.0%- 14.14Refin in g Mar gin sLas tΔ QT DEast Coast 2- 1- 115.412.8%16.02Midcon 6- 3- 2- 115.200.8%19.07Gulf Coast 3- 2- 121.632.8%23.90Gulf Coast Complex22.082.1%23.92California 5- 3- 225.82- 17.3%32.53PNW 5- 3- 1- 120.66- 7.4%21.84NW Europe Simple4.622.6%4.60NWE Margin Complex9.560.7%9.93Singapore Simple0.64- 26.9%1.46Singapore Complex5.66- 6.2%6.36For exLas tΔ QT DUSD/EUR1.09- 0.5%1.10USD/GBP1.560.0%1.56USD/NOK0.12- 0.2%0.12 Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank Indices and Prices Performance I n dic esL a s t%DOW17,746 5- 0.0%S&P2,109 0.10 0.0%S&P Oils488 0.50- -0.1%OSX183 2.30- -1.2%T op 3Subsea 771.50 4.75 7%Tullow Oil246.60 11.62 5%Royal Dutch Shell a1,839.00 77.65 4%Bot t om 3Cairn Energy163.60 0.30- 0%Lundin Petroleum126.10 0.10- 0%Afren1.79 - 0% Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deutsche Bank BG Group (Buy, 1460p TP): A production upgrade? Unheard of! Event: 2Q15 Results DB View: Q2 results beat expectations with production guidance revised UPWARDS given performance in Brazil and Australia. Net income at $429m compares with DB at $419m and consensus at $370m. Results did benefit from a lower rate of tax which removes some gloss but were ahead of market expectations for both divisions at the operating level. Key trends are that production at 703kboe/d (DB 661kboe/d) was 19% ahead, with the company saying production will now be at the upper end of its 650-690kboe/d range – the first production upgrade at the company since 2006. Drivers here were the step up in Brazil production (running at 150kboe/d in July up by over 100% on last year) and some 80kboe/d from Australia with the second facility only just starting in July. Upstream EBITDA of $1372m (DB $1436m) was in line with consensus if below DB while LNG EBITDA of $263m was modestly above consensus ($230m) and DB at ($222m) with guidance for the year HELD despite the sharp mark down in the forward curve since April. To our mind the LNG performance again emphasizes the inherent optionality in the BG model, and the opportunities as such that a loose market in LNG will offer the S&M business. All told, numbers highlight the inflexion now occurring at the company as Brazilian and Australian growth start to pound through. Conference call at 11am today. European Oil and Gas 2q15 Results Review Shell (Buy, 2,4520p TP): A restructuring story with yield and commodity leverage http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1225-854A/67853654/0900b8c089fd96c5.pdf ENI (Hold, EUR16 TP): http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1209-710D/63776428/0900b8c089fd203a.pdf Saipem (Buy, EUR13.5 TP): Strategically moving in the right direction but ST challenges persist http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1167-5CC4/65213437/0900b8c089faf981.pdf Subsea7 (Hold, NOK80 TP): Strong execution but backlog deterioration remains a concern http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1137-DFDD/66662690/0900b8c089faf2b7.pd Technip (Hold, EUR56 TP): http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1195-2773/64078376/0900b8c089fc23cb.pdf US rig count production, growth and efficiency gains Figure 1: Quarterly growth rates year on year Figure 2: Annual growth rates Source: Deutsche Bank, Baker Hughes Source: Deutsche Bank, Baker Hughes Figure 3: Absolute production Figure 4: Productivity assumptions Source: Deutsche Bank, Baker Hughes Source: Deutsche Bank, B