18财年四季报好坏参半，需更多催化剂才能获估值重构﹔维持持有评级

1 持有 收盘价: 31.15港元 (2018年4月18日) 目标价: 33.6港元 (+7.87%) 股价表现 市值 23.30亿美元 流通在外股数 5.871亿股 核数师 PwC 自由流通量 54.7% 52周交易区间 24.62-35.60港元 三个月日均成交量 402万美元 主要股东 Luk Fook Control (39.89%) 来源: 公司, 彭博 Sources: Company, CGIS Research 中国消费行业 奢侈品 六福2018年财年第四季（2018年1月至3月）经营数据好坏参半。港澳地区业务方面，其受益于香港零售市场的复苏。在黄金产品和珠宝首饰的推动下，期内的同店销售增长18％。六福也受惠于更多内地游客访港。期内增长接近行业平均水平。不过，中国内地业务仍然疲弱，该地区的同店销售连续两个季度都轻微下跌。虽然六福将此归因于高基数效应，但我们相信它仍会面对同业的激烈竞争。3月和4月初，香港/澳门业务持续改善，我们预计这一势头将持续，因为预计消费者会购买更多黄金产品来抵御通胀。我们预计，六福将继续从中国内地的消费升级和业务扩张中受益，但公司需时证明自己能在当前周期中明显取得市场收益，特别是在中国。我们维持持有评级，因为我们认为短期内不会再有估值重构。整体而言，基于15倍的19年预测市盈率，我们将19/20财年的每股盈利预测小幅上调4.1％/ 4.3％至2.04港元/2.24港元，以反映港澳业务的正面展望，并将目标价提升至33.6港元，基于15倍19财年市盈率（其平均水平）。 投资亮点  强劲的香港/澳门业务支持总体同店销售增长。在2018财年第四季，港澳同店销售增长18％（受助于黄金和珠宝首饰的销售（同样录得同比增长19％）），这推动了公司整体同店销售增长16％。公司表示，受到内地旅客增加所推动，业绩表现良好，并指出3月表现优于1月和2月份，这反映本地零售市场的确正在复苏。  中国内地：仍面临压力。中国内地的表现连续两个季度继续受压。六福在2018年1月至3月录得同店销售增长-2％，尽管3月表现转好。管理层将此归因于（1）2017财年的基数较高，导致2018财年的增长较弱；（2）激烈竞争，特别是来自个别同业的竞争；（3）一些顾客分流到港澳地区。正面因素是，店铺扩张速度优于预期。随着加盟店开张数量超过原先的预期，截至3月底，中国内地的店铺总数已达到1,561家（157家自营店和1,404家品牌店）。公司也在考虑上调其19财年的开店目标。  尚未出现优于市场表现的迹象。从上而下的角度来看，六福有望受益于香港零售业复苏和中国的消费升级。另外，由通胀预期引发的黄金产品需求也将使公司受益。然而，对于六福能否在此轮周期跑赢同业，我们采取更保守的态度。除了面对周大福[1929.HK;买入]的激烈竞争外，我们更担心一些针对大众市场的本土品牌所带来的竞争。例如，周大生[002867.CH;未评级]以其特许经营模式录得了强劲的盈利增长。这可对采用类似商业模式的六福构成威胁。  短期内获得新一轮估值重构的机会不大。维持持有评级。我们将19/20财年每股盈利预测小幅上调4.1％/ 4.3％至2.04港元/ 2.24港元，我们最新目标价为33.6港元，基于15倍的19财年预测市盈率。我们认为近期股价反弹已反映了六福在香港的良好表现。公司需要更多的催化剂，特别是引证中国内地业务表现改善的数据，才有望获得估值重构。 2018年4月19日 李嘉豪, CFA—分析员 (852) 3698 6392 tonyli@chinastock.com.hk 王志文, CFA—研究部主管 (852) 3698 6317 cmwong@chinastock.com.hk 来源: 彭博 六福集团 [590.HK] 18财年四季报好坏参半，需更多催化剂才能获估值重构 ；维持持有评级 050100150200250152025303540(HK$ million)(HK$)Turnover (RHS)Price (LHS)Year ended 31 MarchFY2016FY2017FY2018EFY2019EFY2020ETurnover (HK$m)14,03112,80714,18115,74117,124Net profit (HK$m)9591,0171,1971,3141,418Net margin6.8%7.9%8.4%8.4%8.3%Basic EPS (HK$)1.631.732.042.242.42Change-40.6%6.3%17.7%9.8%7.9%PER (x)19.118.015.313.912.9Yield (%)3.5%3.7%3.7%3.7%3.7%PBR (x)2.12.01.91.81.7来源: 公司, 中国银河国际证券研究部 收入 (百万港元) 净利润 (百万港元) 净利润率 每股基本盈利（港元） 变动 市盈率（倍） 股息收益率（％） 市净率（倍） 截至3月底止年度 2 HOLD Close: HK$31.15 (April 18, 2018) Target Price: HK$33.6 (+7.87%) Price Performance Market Cap US$2,330m Shares Outstanding 587.1m Auditor PwC Free Float 54.7% 52W range HK$24.62-35.60 6M average daily T/O US$4.02m Major Shareholding Luk Fook Control (39.89%) Sources: Company, Bloomberg Sources: Company, CGIS Research China Consumer Sector Luxury The Q4 FY2018 (Jan-Mar 2018) operating figures reported by Luk Fook show a mixed picture. For the HK/Macau region, the Company is a beneficiary of Hong Kong’s retail market recov-ery. SSSG during the period was +18%, driven by both gold products and gem set jewellery. Luk Fook also benefited from more mainland Chinese tourist arrivals in HK. The growth was in line with the industry average. However, mainland China was still somewhat weak, as SSSG was mildly negative for two consecutive quarters. While Luk Fook attributed this to the high base effect, we believe it continued to face keen competition from its peers. For March and early-April, its Hong Kong/Macau business continued to improve, and we expect the momen-tum to continue, as we expect consumers to buy more gold products for inflation protection. We expect Luk Fook to continue to benefit from consumption upgrades and business expan-sion in mainland China, but it will take time for the Company to prove itself as an obvious mar-ket gainer in the current cycle, especially in China. We maintain our HOLD rating, as we be-lieve another re-rating in the near term is unlikely. Overall, we slightly lift our EPS forecast for FY19E/20E by 4.1%/4.3% to HK$2.04/HK$2.24 to reflect the positive outlook for its HK/Macau operations, and lift our TP to HK$33.6, based on 15x FY19E PER (its average level). Investme nt Hi ghlights  Overall SSSG Supported by Strong HK/Macau Performance. Overall SSSG for Luk Fook in Q4 FY2018 was +16%, attributable to strong HK/Macau SSSG of +18%, driven by both gold and gem set jewellery sales (both recorded SSSG of +19%). The Company suggested the good performance was driven by increasing tourist arrivals from mainland China, and noted that March was better than both Jan and Feb, suggesting a prov-en recovery in the local retail market.  Mainland China: Still under Pressure. The performance in mainland China continued to be under pressure for two consecutive quarters. Luk Fook reported –2% SSSG in Jan-Mar 2018, although the March performance turned better. Management attributed this to (1) the high base effect in FY17, resulting in a weaker growth rate for FY18, (2) keen competition, especially from some of its peers, and (3) likely cannibalization from the HK/Macau region. On the bright side, store expansion was better than expected. With fran-chisees opening more stores than originally expected, the total number of stores in main-land