冰岛生产率放缓的诊断：企业层面的证据

Iceland’s high GDP per capita despite low labor productivity and a productivity slowdown is driven by allocative inefficiencies rather than firm underperformance. While individual firms continue to improve, gains are not translated into aggregate productivity due to:

• Resource misallocation: Labor and capital are not directed towards the most productive firms, with high dispersion in returns concentrated in sheltered services. The size-productivity link has deteriorated, and labor is increasingly misallocated across sectors, favoring lower-productivity industries.
• Low domestic frontier: Firms rapidly converge to a national frontier that remains below the European benchmark, limiting the potential gains from catch-up.
• Weak firm selection and scaling: Zombie firms are prevalent, and low-productivity firms persist in the market. Productive firms face a scaling penalty, experiencing declining productivity as they expand employment.

Addressing these issues requires policies that:

• Strengthen competition and reallocation: Lowering barriers to entry and exit, streamlining insolvency procedures, and enhancing competition in sheltered sectors can improve allocative efficiency.
• Support productive firm expansion: Improving access to finance, particularly venture capital, and maintaining wage settlements aligned with productivity developments can facilitate scaling.
• Raise the productivity frontier: Investing in innovation, skills, and infrastructure is crucial for long-term growth potential.