2026年6月15日-6月19日工业股周报

USA | Multi-Industrials Industrials Week Ahead (6/15-6/19) We preview this week's important data releases and events affecting the NY mfg. activity (Jun.):NY mfg. activity increased ~9pts M/M in May to its highest level sinceApr. 2022 on higher orders, and lengthening delivery times. Supply availability worsened. Input and activity indexes increased 8.6pts and 13.9pts M/M,respectivelycapex indexes increased 5.3pts and 2.4pts M/M,respectively NAHB HMI (Jun.):May Builder Confidence increased 3pts M/M to 37, reflecting a slight springdemand recovery despite continued weakness in the housing market due to elevated interest rates, Mfg. IP (May):Mfg. production increased 0.6% M/M in Apr., driven by durable goods. Capacity Stephen Volkmann, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2031 | svolkmann@jefferies.com Jamie Simonson * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 344-1852 | jsimonson1@jefferies.com Eurozone Industrial Production (Apr.):Industrial Production in the Eurozone increased 0.2% M/M, Construction Backlog (May):Apr. construction backlog increased 0.2M M/M as confidence onsales, margins and hiring rose industry-wide, despite cost pressures and weak spend data. 42% ofthe largest contractors reported working data center projects versus just 7% of smaller firms, withlonger backlogs of 12.2M vs. 8.3M for others. Despite diverging levels of backlog, ABC contractor Exhibit 10 - Apr. construction confidence sales andprofit margins indexes increased 1.5pts and 1.3ptsM/M, respectively Permits and Starts (May):Apr. single-family housing permits and starts decreased 2.6% and 9%M/M (-5.5% and -2.4% Y/Y), respectively. Multifamily permits and starts increased 21.8% and 10.3% Exhibit 11 - Apr. SF housing permits decreased 2.6%M/M, while SF housing starts decreased 9% M/MExhibit 12 - Apr. MF housing permits increased21.8% M/M, while MF housing starts increased10.3% M/M Thursday Philadelphia Mfg. activity (Jun.):Mfg. activity in Philly decreased ~27pts M/M in May on lowerorders and shipments. Price and cost indexes softened but remained elevated. Firms remainoptimistic about growth over the next six months, as most future indicators rose from already Exhibit 13 - May Philly current business activityindex decreased 27.1pts M/M, while the futurebusiness activity increased 12.4pts M/M Exhibit 14 - May Philly future new orders indexincreased 7.8pts M/M, while the future capex indexdecreased 4.3pts M/M LEI (May):LEI increased 0.1% M/M in Apr. Conference Board expects modest growth, projecting2026 GDP at 1.7% Y/Y, with business investment supported by AI, data centers, and energy, butoffset partly by weak hiring, elevated energy costs, and pressured consumer purchasing power, Other data expected (but not certain) for the week Cutting Tools (Apr.):Mar. cutting tool orders increased 24.6% Y/Y and 15.2% M/M. Commentarypointed to higher unit volumes but warned that nominal growth could be distorted by high raw Dodge Construction Starts (May):Apr. construction starts increased 9% M/M, non-resi re-accelerated +19% M/M (+6% in Mar.), non-building starts decelerated +7% M/M (+38% M/M in Mar.)and resi decreased slightly, by -70bps M/M (+2.6% in Mar.). Nine out of the 15 categories posted Komtrax (May):Komatsu construction equipment saw Apr. NA avg. monthly hours of machine use WSJ Vistage Small Business CEO Survey (Jun.):Small Business CEO Confidence Index increased0.6pt M/M to 84.0 in May (vs 12-month avg. of 88.6). Revenue expectations increased M/M, whileprofitability expectations were less upbeat, as small businesses are absorbing cost increases fromenergy, tariffs, and labor rather than passing them through to customers. Competitive pressure, Exhibit 23 - May WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEOConfidence Index increased 0.6pts M/MExhibit 24 - May WSJ/Vistage Small Business CEOConfidence Index increased 9pts Y/Y CEO Outlook (2Q26):The CEO Economic Outlook Index increased 9pts Q/Q to 89 (above itshistorical avg. of 83) during 1Q26. Employment, capex, and sales expectations increased 9pts, Analyst Certification:I, Stephen Volkmann, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views I, Chirag Patel, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed I, James Ko, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specif