您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美国银行证券]:纳斯达克与首席财务官共进午餐的五大要点;维持买入评级 - 发现报告

纳斯达克与首席财务官共进午餐的五大要点;维持买入评级

2026-06-12 美国银行证券 大熊
报告封面

On Thursday, we hosted an investor lunch with Nasdaq’s (NDAQ) CFO Sarah Youngwood.Following the meeting, we maintain our Buy rating and $113 PO as we believe investorconcerns around AI disruption are unjustified. In our view, NDAQ is a clear beneficiary ofthe technology. We think AI will streamline product development, enhance the valueproposition of its FinTech offerings, grow the TAM for anti-financial crime, and 12 June 2026 Equity Eli AbboudResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5791 1)AI is amplifying financial crime incidenceAI is acting as a clear accelerant to both the scale and sophisticationof fraud, which we Craig Siegenthaler, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5004 view as structurally expanding the opportunity set for Nasdaq’s Financial CrimeManagement segment. Illicit financial activity is estimated to have grown to $4.4T in2025 from $3.1T in 2023, and we expect a further acceleration going forward as moreadvanced frontier models (e.g., Mythos) are released. This problem is particularly acute in Ivory GaoResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5034 Kareem SeifResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 5759 2) Focus on token efficiency benefits their data franchiseThe discussion around AIamong bank CFO/CTOs is increasingly shifting from tokenmaxxing to token efficiency, which leaves NDAQ’s data business well-positionedgiven that it has optimized its data architecture for AI use cases. In addition tosupporting MCP connectivity, NDAQ utilizes a patented data transformation mechanism Price86.74 USDPrice Objective113.00 USDDate Established23-Apr-2026Investment OpinionB-1-752-Week Range77.09 USD -101.79 USDMrkt Val / Shares Out (mn)49,307 USD / 568.4Free Float89.0%Average Daily Value274.31 USDBofA Ticker / ExchangeNDAQ / NASBloomberg / ReutersNDAQ US / NDAQ.OQROE (2026E)17.4% 3) Listing momentum to build following large IPOsMonthly US IPO proceeds of $15B (+15% m/m) was a post-pandemic high, and the upcoming large-cap IPOs could clear the way for further activity. Listings tend to buildon momentum, so successful debuts from highly visible aerospace/AI companies couldprompt more issuers to follow. Additionally, an acceleration in listings would be MCP:Model context protocolIPO: Initial public offeringsCFTC: Commodity Futures TradingCommission BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should beaware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 6 to 8. Analyst Certification on page 4. Price Company SectorOther Financials Company Description Nasdaq, which was founded in 1971, is a leading diversifiedglobal exchange that offers trading and clearing services,market data products, technology products and services,financial index products, listing services and public Investment Rationale An IPO comeback should directly benefit Nasdaq's listingssegment and have positive second-derivative impacts on itstrading, corporate services and financial data businesses.We also expect the stock to rerate upward over time inorder to better reflect Nasdaq's growing informationservices and technology revenue composition. These Additional details 4) Perpetual futures use case differs from optionsThe CFTC’s approval of perpetual futures earlier this month is unlikely to have any bearing on Nasdaq’s volumes. The trader type and use cases materially differ betweenperpetual futures and stocks/options. Given that perpetual futures contracts abroad canentail as much as 1000x leverage, the trader profile is significantly more risk-seekingthan existing users of Nasdaq products. In addition, we note that most options 5) Tokenization adoption is likely to be a gradual processWe believe Nasdaq’s foremost objective with tokenization is to ensure that tokenized equities do not fragment liquidity or otherwise disrupt the existing market structure.Management envisions several key use cases for tokenized equities including: (1) shortersettlement cycles, (2) modernized proxy voting and (3) more seamless corporate actions.To accomplish these aims, they have simultaneously pursued two separate models. Price objective basis & risk Nasdaq (NDAQ)Our primary valuation metric for US Exchanges is price to long-term earnings. We focus on long-term EPS because we prefer to normalize for any near-term factors, and it alsoprovides credit for an additional two years of growth. We apply a 22.5x multiple on our2028E EPS to derive our $113 PO. Our multiple is a premium to NDAQ's currentvaluation. While the risk of Ai disruption has driven a derating in the stock, we think Risks to our price objective are (1) an economic downturn threatening an IPO comeback,(2) persistent market share losses in their trading business and (3) disruption related to Analyst Certification I, Eli Abboud, hereby certify