量子未来的赢家与输家——行业专家网络研讨会文字记录与要点

The Quantum Leap: Winners and Losers in the Quantum future -Industry Expert Webinar Transcript and Takeaways We hosted a webinar with a Quantum industry expert with 15 years experience in leadingQuantum companies and large tech, as a follow-up to our recently publishedQuantum Deepdivenote. This note is an edited transcript with key takeaways. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com A key framework to understand the quantum landscape is the distinctionbetween manufactured qubits and natural qubits.Manufactured qubits, such assuperconducting, silicon spin, and topological, are engineered systems that benefit fromfast speeds. However, they tend to suffer from higher noise and shorter coherence times. In April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Currently, there are three leading modalities: superconducting (manufactured),trapped ions (natural) and neutral atoms (natural).Superconducting leads in scale,speed, and industrial maturity, supported by significant investment from large tech.Meanwhile, trapped ions and neutral atoms are advancing rapidly due to their superior qubitquality and natural ability to perform long-range interactions. Other modalities, such as The trade-off between speed and accuracy influences application fit.Problems thatrequire repeated sampling to estimate real-valued outputs, such as chemistry simulations,materials science, favor fast systems like superconducting. Problems requiring a discretecorrect answer, such as cryptography or combinatorial optimization, favor the higher fidelityof natural qubits. While IBM expects Quantum Advantage will be achieved this year, large- Quantum computing is highly capital intensive. As a result, the dominant modelwill likely be cloud-based, rather than widespread ownership of machines.Earlydemand is driven by academia, government, and research fields with growing interest from Competitive dynamics favor large technology companies such as IBM and Googledue to their access to capital, infrastructure, and talent.IBM, in particular, has astrong advantage in software and ecosystem like Qiskit, though its hardware leadership isincreasingly challenged by higher-quality natural qubit systems. Startups are more likely to Overall, the industry is likely to evolve into a multi-modality ecosystem, where bothmanufactured and natural qubit coexist, each optimized for different applications, with BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DETAILS We hosted Quantum industry expert with 15 years experience in leading Quantum companies and large tech, as a follow-up to ourrecently published Quantum Deepdive note. This note is an edited transcript with key takeaways. Speaker Key:Mark Newman =MNTechnology manager in the quantum computing industry =Expert MN: Good morning, everyone. I'm Mark Newman, Bernstein's US IT Hardware Analyst. And today, we have the pleasure ofhosting this webinar with a Technology Manager in the Quantum Computing Industry, who has15 years experience in leadingQuantum companies and large tech. At both companies, he worked on Quantum, so he has a wealth of knowledge and Expert: Yeah, absolutely. I've worked in the quantum computing industry and academia for the last 15 years or so. My career issort of taking me up the whole stack that makes a viable quantum computer. I started off much more focused on hardware, eventhough I am a theoretical physicist by training, and then slowly over time moved to more system-level considerations, and thennowadays I work more on the software applications and algorithm side. My primary research expertise and focus for the last MN: Great, thanks very much, Expert. And a reminder for everyone joining on the call, we do have a pigeonhole link where youcan enter your own questions. I'm going to start off with a bunch of my own questions, and I'll refer to that later in the call to getsome investor questions in as well. So let's get started. I'd like to start off talking about all the different, approaches, or what'sreferred to as the modalities for quantum. So, you have a lot of experience here, in quantum. You're neutral, as you said, workingat a non-profit currently. If you had to rank the six modalities, can we talk about each of the six modalities and talk about them in Expert: Yeah, absolutely. So, I think, before I go into that, I want to put in a few caveat statements. Quantum computing as anindustry is not necessarily following the path that classical computing and traditional computing has, in the sense that when youlook at the early, early, early days of classical computing, when we had vacuum tubes and these sort of massive-scale systems,the industry was really revolutionized by the transistor. And it sort of unified around this single architecture that was going to bethe one moving forward. That could happen in quantum computing, absolutely, and I think some of the modalities you mentionedthere, even some that aren't on that list, that a