伯恩斯坦能源研究：全球原油边际成本调研 ——油价长期中枢研判

Bernstein Energy: Global Oil Marginal Cost Survey. What is thelong term price for oil? We surveyed the 50 largest listed oil and gas companies globally (TOP50), which togetheraccount for roughly two-thirds of non-OPEC oil supply (excluding the FSU). Based on 2025annual reports, we estimate that the global oil marginal cost declined by 2% YoY last yearto US$69/bbl.Adjusting for cost inflation and price reflexivity to oil price we expectmarginal cost will reach US$77/bbl in 2026. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Global Marginal Cost of oil for non-OPEC oil producers decreased 2% to US$69/bblin 2025.The decline in marginal cost was broad driven by lower production costs (-14%y-o-y). Meanwhile, DD&A and exploration expenses were largely stable y-o-y at US$13.3/boe and US$1.0/boe respectively. Interest expense declined to US$1.0/boe. The MarginalCost of Oil is below the current spot price and in line with the long-term forward strip (US$70/bbl).Global Marginal Cash Cost of production, which sets a floor for oil price,remained largely stable at US$39/bbl. Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com With a tighter oil market and higher spot prices, we expect 2026 marginal cost tocome in at US$77/bbl.The US$69/bbl level remains a key long-term reference, thoughbackward-looking. Given the reflexivity of costs to oil price, we expect higher spot pricesand a tighter physical market to drive cost inflation across the supply chain, lifting themarginal cost of supply towards US$77/bbl for this year.This is consistent with our US$75/bbl as a reasonable long term oil price assumption for equity valuation, abovethe current 60M forward strip of US$70/bbl. Net income breakeven for the oil industry is US$50/bbl.Global Unit Production Costdeclined by 5% y-o-y to US$35/boe. Given the realization spread between oil price andrevenue per boe of 72%, it implies the industry needs a US$50/bbl oil price to 'break even'on a net income basis.Industry ROACE declined last year to 10% (at an oil price of US$70/bbl) which is in line with the long term industry average and cost of capital of10%.Average net income was US$9.8/boe (-9% y-o-y) with net income margin of 20%.Free cash flow declined to US$9.4/boe (-3%) with lower cash flow alongside a modestdecline in capex (-5%). Industry re-investment rate (capex to cash flow) was stable at 61% in 2025 butremains well below the long-term average.Industry capex per unit of flowing barreldeclined to US$14.7/boe. After troughing at 36% in 2022, the reinvestment ratiorecovered to 61% in 2025, though still below the 80–90% long-term range, reflecting amore cautious outlook on long-term demand. Reserve life remains on a declining trend given lower re-investment in recent yearsand the 1P oil reserves life reached a 20-year low of 10.4 years, which could implya bullish signal.F&D costs for the industry were US$14.3/boe (-9%), which is aboveDD&A cost of US$13.3/boe. Despite reserves replacement remaining strong at 135%,the reserves to production (R/P) ratio fell to 10.4 years (for both total and oil), down fromthe long term average of 13 years, reflecting faster production growth relative to reservesadditions. A lower R/P ratio implies a weaker outlook for oil production growth. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Our survey of the global oil industry based on 2025 annual reports indicates that the marginal cost of oil, which sets the longterm price of oil, declined 2% to US$69/bbl. The decline in marginal cost from last year reflects the 14% decline in oil price(Brent) to US$69/bbl in 2025. Adjusting for the higher anticipated oil price for this year (US$90/bbl), which will drive inflationin fuel costs, raw material prices and production taxes, we expect the marginal cost in 2026 to reach US$77/bbl in 2026.This range in marginal cost from US$69 (for 2025) to US$77/bbl (expected for 2026) provides a guide to the long run oilprice which should be used for equity valuation. In our discounted cash flow models we therefore use US$75/bbl as a longterm planning price. As such we use US$90/bbl for 2026, US$78/bbl for 2027 and US$75/bbl for our long term Brent price(flat nominal). Oil price can of course trade between the price of demand destruction and the marginal cash cost. The priceof demand destruction sits at US$130/bbl (c. 4.5% of world GDP) which represents the point above which there is a highprobability of a global recession of prices remain at that level or above for a prolonged period. Conversely, the marginal cashcost of oil, which represents the floor price for oil remained steady at US$39/bbl. Other key data points which we feel areimportant is the ‘average’ breakeven for the industry at US$50/bbl, which is the oil price required for the average company inthe industry to break even. Moreover, industry return on capital last year was 10% at an oil price of c. US$70/bbl (Br