全球经济未来 2030年生产力

Global Economic Futures:Productivity in 2030 W H I T EP A P E R Images:Getty Images, Unsplash Contents Foreword Executive summary 1Introduction: Understanding productivity 1.1The productivity slowdown1.2Key drivers of future productivity 2Scenarios 2.1Framework2.2Four futures for productivity in 2030 3Industry exposure and implications 3.1Mapping industry exposure3.2Implications across selected industries 4Strategies for the future Appendices A1Methodology Contributors Endnotes Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated and ©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopying Foreword Aengus CollinsHead, Economic Growthand Transformation, World Kathleen O’ReillySenior Managing Director, The global economic backdrop is one of weakgrowth, complex geoeconomics and deepeningpolicy uncertainty. The question is no longerwhether the economic landscape is going to evolve,but how decision-makers can respond to these around boosting economic growth andliving standards. The paper sets out fourscenarios exploring the interaction of two coredrivers of productivity: technology and human The aim is not to predict where the world will bein 2030. Instead, the series encourages leaders tothink critically, creatively and purposefully about thefuture and to drive action on the key issues. The To help decision-makers understand and anticipatechange, the World Economic Forum and Accentureare launching this new series of publications entitledGlobal Economic Futures. The series uses scenario We hope this paper and series will be a usefulresource for decision-makers as they navigate This first edition of the series explores the future ofproductivity, a critical topic at the root of challenges Executive summary The future of productivity – central toeconomic growth and living standards– will be shaped by technology, human Productivity has historically been a criticaldriver of global growth, increasing living standardsand economic dynamism. However, productivitygrowth has come to a virtual standstill in recent uncertainty. The purpose of this analysis isnot to predict where the world will be in 2030,but to encourage decision-makers to think Looking at the interaction of potential accelerationand slowdown on two key productivity drivers– technology and human capital – results in the Key trends shaping future 1Productivity Leap: A virtuous circlebetween widespread disruptive innovationand rapid human capital development leads There is little consensus on the pace of productivitygrowth in the coming years, but many trends willinfluence it, including technology, skills, labourmarkets, demographics, finance, regulation, Automation Overload: Technological For example, the commercialization of disruptivetechnologies has the potential to transform productivity,although the rate of adoption and level of impactremain uncertain. In the case of artificial intelligence (AI),business executives in high-income economies ratethe productivity-boosting use of the technology nearly advancements outpace human capitaldevelopment, leading to a “winner-takes-all”dynamic and an economy characterized by increased concentration of wealth and power.Productivity gaps widen between leading andlagging firms, sectors and regions.3Human Advantage: Human capital development outpaces technologicaladvancement, centring economic activityon people. Productivity growth is slow anduneven, driven more by creative use of Human capital development will also be criticalto reversing the productivity slowdown, notleast because of its important role in unlockingtechnological gains. Nearly half of global business Productivity Drought: A simultaneous 4slowdown in technological innovationand human capital development stallsproductivity growth. Economies struggle Four scenarios for productivity Scenario analysis offers a structured processfor exploring, understanding and navigating Industry exposure –Promote synergies between technologyand human capital development –Strengthen anticipatory and data-driven Each of these futures has the potential to reshapesectors and disrupt individual businesses. Across12 sectors, four broad clusters are identifiedbased on analysis of the differing headwinds andtailwinds for corporate output and profitabilityacross the scenarios. Five sectors are analysed –Future-proof education and training systems –Anticipate talent needs and develop workforce –Accelerate adoption and diffusion of emerging –Invest in the trustworthiness of emerging –Strengthen critical infrastructure Strategies for the future The paper offers a series of high-level strategicrecommendations designed to help businesses andgovernment