2026年第一季度AI风险投资趋势

EMERGING TECH RESEARCH AI VC Trends VC activity across the AI ecosystem REPORT PREVIEWThe full report is availablethrough the PitchBook Platform. Contents AI landscape3Quarterly analysis4Key takeaways4VC activity4Exits4Valuations5Key deals5Macro backdrop6Outlook6AI VC deal summary21 Institutional Research Group Dimitri ZabelinSenior Research Analyst, AI and Cybersecuritydimitri.zabelin@pitchbook.com Oscar AllawaySenior Data Analyst pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on May 12, 2026 Quarterly analysis Key takeaways from their Q1 2022 peak of 1,938, with Q1 2026 hitting the lowest level since 2018. Capital deployedhas not contracted in lockstep, however. Q1 2026 saw nearly as much investment as Q1 2022 ($22.8 •AI VC investment in Q1 2026 surpassed the full-year 2025 total in a single quarter. Total fundingreached $255.5 billion, driven by an extraordinary concentration of capital in horizontal platforms. Semiconductors posted their second-best quarter on record at $5 billion across 84 transactions,trailing only Q4 2025’s $6 billion across 99 transactions. The largest disclosed deal was a $1.1 billionSeries H investment into Cerebras Systems, led by Tiger Global Management. The chipmaker filed forits second IPO attempt on April 17. Autonomous machines posted a record quarter, registering $29 •Autonomous machines posted a record quarter in both deal value and capital deployment.Waymo’s $16 billion Series D anchored $29 billion in total segment investment, more •OpenAI closed a $122 billion round, while SpaceX’s $250 billion acquisition of xAI stands as thelargest AI-related M&A transaction ever recorded. The deal exceeded the combined value of all AI On a trailing 12-month (TTM) basis, the divergence between horizontal platforms and verticalapplications grew more pronounced. Horizontal platforms led deal value at $299 billion across VC activity Driven by a handful of megadeals, Q1 has already eclipsed all of 2025 in total AI VC funding activity.Total funding climbed from $254.4 billion across full-year 2025 to $255.5 billion in Q1 2026 alone. Asexpected, megadeal activity was concentrated in horizontal platforms, which once again captured a Exits SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI stood as the single-largest AI-related M&A transaction on record,exceeding the combined value of all AI M&A activity over the prior three years. The deal was completed ahead of aSpaceX IPOto strengthen the company’s positioning. The second- and third-largest exits inthe quarter were Zhipu’s public listing and Marvell Technology’s acquisition of Celestial AI. Horizontal QUARTERLY ANALYSIS prior round in Q1 2026. This marks the largest jump between rounds seen across any stage since2015. Late-stage VC rose to 2x over the same period. All stages ended the period above their historical exit value, reflecting a continued premium for the segment. This dynamic is further reflected acrossthe agentic AI landscape, where vertical applications continue to draw significant M&A interest while Key deals Valuations Venture growth recorded the largest increase in median pre-money valuations in both absolute andpercentage terms, rising from $327.5 million in Q4 2025 to $868.4 million in Q1 2026, a gain of more Notable deals in Q1 2026 were dominated by horizontal platforms, with the three largest financingsall occurring within the segment. OpenAI closed a record $122 billion funding round, exceeding the Early-stage VC was the standout, with median pre-money valuations rising from $57 million to $111.2million, while late-stage VC saw a comparable move from $51.2 million to $116.3 million. Pre-seed/ The quarter’s most significant transaction was SpaceX’s acquisition of xAI for $250 billion, executedahead of the rocket company’s anticipated IPO in mid-to-late June. The deal represents one of the Deal counts remained muted across all stages in Q1 2026, continuing the broader trend of capitalconcentrating into fewer, larger transactions. Venture growth was the only stage to hold relatively Waymo’s $16 billion late-stage funding round propelled the autonomous machines segment to all-timehighs in deal activity on both a quarterly and annual basis, the strongest reading in the dataset going Median deal sizes accelerated sharply at the early VC stage, rising from $9 million to $16 million, whileoverall median deal sizes rose from $5.8 million to $8.8 million. Valuation step-ups expanded alongside Macro backdrop Outlook We see the macroeconomic backdrop significantly impacting AI investor sentiment: It influences riskappetite, funding availability, and market valuations for AI companies. As such, geopolitical risks inQ2 remain an overhanging concern for the broader market, with the ongoing war in Iran and elevatedenergy prices introducing persistent inflation uncertainty. Disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipping Capital concentration in horizontal platforms is expected to persist through 2026 and beyond,particularly