2025纽约市经济与财政状况报告

BUREAU OF BUDGETDecember 15, 2025 Brad LanderComptroller Executive Deputy Comptroller for Budget and FinanceFrancesco Brindisi Deputy Comptroller for BudgetKrista Olson Senior Director, Budget OversightElizabeth Brown Chief EconomistJonathan Siegel Report Coordinator Director, Tax Policy& Revenue AnalysisYaw Owusu-Ansah Director, Cash AnalysisIrina Livshits Director, Economic ResearchJason Bram Bureau of Budget Staff Jovanni AyalaAmber BornRosa CharlesStephen CorsonNicholas DoddsAida FarmandMichele GriffinMichael HechtDahong HuangJack KernMarcia MurphyKieran PersaudClaire PozniakAliyah SahqaniBailey SchweitzerAndre Vasilyev Contents I. Executive Summary.............................................................................. 3II. The State of the City’s Economy .......................................................... 9Economic Conditions and Forecast, 2025 – 2029.......................................... 9Economic and Fiscal Research: 2025 In Review .......................................... 27III. The State of the City’s Finances ........................................................ 30The City’s Financial Position ........................................................................ 30The November 2025 Financial Plan, FY 2026 – FY 2029.............................. 35The Comptroller’s Office’s Restated Gaps and Surpluses ........................... 37Revenue Analysis ......................................................................................... 41Expenditure Analysis.................................................................................... 60IV. Capital Budget and Financing Program ........................................... 110Capital Commitment Plan, FY 2025 – FY 2028........................................... 110Financing Program ..................................................................................... 115V. Appendix........................................................................................ 120 List of Tables Table 1.FY 2026 – FY 2029 November Financial Plan .......................................................................... 6Table 2.Plan -to- Plan Changes, November 2025 Plan vs. June 2025 Plan .......................................... 7Table 3.Comptroller’s Office Restated Gaps .......................................................................................... 8Table 4.Forecast of Selected Economic Indicators, Calendar Year Averages, 2025 to 2029.............. 10Table 5.FOMC Members Median Economic Projections...................................................................... 12Table 6.Employment and Employment Growth (Q4-Q4) by Sector in New York City,2023-2029 ................................................................................................................................ 16Table 7.NYC Taxable Sales at Restaurants and Other Eating Places, 2018-2025.............................. 18Table 8.The FY 2025 Net Position and Change in Net Position of Governmental Activities................ 32Table 9.Changes to FY 2026 and FY 2027 City Fund Estimates from June 2025 Plan ...................... 36Table 10.Comptroller’s Offices Restated Gaps and Surpluses .............................................................. 38Table 11.Tax Forecast Revision in December 2025 Vs. Comptroller’s Forecast in June 2025 ............. 42Table 12.FY 2026 Up to October Collections and the Mayor’s November Plan..................................... 44Table 13.Comparison of Tax Revenue Projections: Growth Rates ........................................................ 44Table 14.Comparison of Tax Revenue Projections: Levels.................................................................... 45Table 15.Tax Revenue Projection Differences ....................................................................................... 46Table 16.Personal Income Tax and Pass-Through Entity Tax Forecasts, FYs 2026-2029 ................... 48Table 17.Changes in FY 2026 Miscellaneous Revenue Estimates, June 2025 Planvs. November 2025 Plan.......................................................................................................... 55Table 18.Miscellaneous Revenue Forecast, November 2025 Plan........................................................ 55Table 19.FY 2026-FY 2029 Expenditure Growth, Adjusted for Prepayments and Reserves................. 61Table 20.Total Funded Full-Time Year-End Headcount, November 2025 Financial Plan ..................... 62Table 21.Full-Time Headcount Changes, November 2025 Financial Plan vs. June 2025Financial Plan........................................................................................................................... 63Table 22.FY 2025 and FY 2026 Actual Headcount Change between July 31 and October 31 ............. 64Table 23.Projected Overtime Spending FY 2026 ................................................................................... 66Table 24.NYPD Overtime by Category FY 202