科技日报 -美股盘前-20260521

TMTB · TMT Breakout · 2026年05月21日 20:45 NVDA财报中规中矩，但CPU业务抢尽风头，其Vera CPU首年可见度达200亿美元，直接冲击英特尔和AMD。INTU因TurboTax DIY指引下调和裁员17%重挫14%，市场对AI颠覆传统软件的担忧加剧。 NVDA给出2000亿美元CPU总可寻址市场，远超AMD预期，带动ARM等CPU生态股大涨。INTU的疲软集中在价格敏感的低收入DIY用户，虽高端辅助报税业务增长强劲，但空头认为AI正催生更便宜的替代方案，给软件定价带来压力。后续关注NVDA的CPU放量节奏及INTU能否靠AI混合模式守住护城河。 TMTB 晨间速览 TMTB Morning Wrap TMT 突破 早上好。股指期货下跌50个基点，投资者正在消化NVDA的财报（表现中规中矩）和中东局势的消息（路透社报道伊朗最高领袖已下令，该国接近武器级的浓缩铀应留在伊朗/美国，且有报道称，在美以打击后，伊朗已重启无人机生产，并以超预期的速度重建关键军事能力）。 TMT Breakout Good morning. Futures -50bps as investors digestNVDA print (down the fairway print) and news from the MiddleEast (Reuters reporting Iran’s Supreme Leader has issueddirective that the country’s near weapons-grade uraniumshould stay in Iran/US and reports that Iran has restarted droneproduction and is rebuilding key military capabilities faster thanexpected after US-Israeli strikes.) 收益率再次全线攀升4-6个基点。油价上涨2.5%。Yields popping again up 4-6bps across the curve. Oil +2.5%. 亚洲市场涨跌互现，韩国KOSPI指数表现强劲：东证指数上涨1.64%，日经225指数上涨3.14%，恒生指数下跌1.03%，恒生中国企业指数下跌1.51%，上证综指下跌2.04%，深证成指下跌2.4%，台湾TAIEX指数上涨3.37%，韩国KOSPI指数上涨8.42%，澳大利亚ASX 200指数上涨1.47%。亚洲市场隔夜异动股众多：三星电子上涨6% / SK海力士上涨7%，铠侠上涨9%……软银因OpenAI IPO消息和ARM昨日上涨15%而飙升19%。LG电子因NVDA提及物理AI的积极言论而上涨30%。基板类股上涨，Ibiden上涨13%，景硕/欣兴电子上涨10%，受NVDA关于CPU的评论提振。 Asia mixed with KOSPI strong: TPX +1.64%, NKY +3.14%, HangSeng -1.03%, HSCEI -1.51%, SHCOMP -2.04%, Shenzhen -2.4%,Taiwan TAIEX +3.37%, Korea KOSPI +8.42%, Australia ASX 200+1.47%. Lots of movers overnight in Asia: Samsung +6% / SKHynix +7%, Kioxia +9%… Softbank +19% on OpenAI IPO news andARM being up 15% yesterday. LG electronics +30% on positivephysical AI mention from NVDA. Substrates up with Ibiden +13%,Kinsus/Unimicron +10%, helped by the NVDA CPU commentary. 量子计算类股因特朗普政府资助部分公司的消息而上涨。NBIS因涨价消息上涨8%。软件板块下跌1.5%，受INTU财报引发市场对AI颠覆的担忧影响，半导体板块基本持平。 Quantum names up on news Trump admin funding somecompanies. NBIS +8% on news of pricing increase. Software -1.5%lower following the INTU print that is fanning fears of AIdisruption with Semis roughly flat. 今天有SPOT投资者日，以及TTWO、WDAY和ZM的财报。我们将首先关注NVDA和下跌14%的INTU，然后进入常规内容，今天有很多重要内容需要覆盖。 Today we have the SPOT investor day, and earnings from TTWO,WDAY , and ZM We’ll hit on NVDA and INTU -14% first then get tothe usual, where we have a lot of good stuff to cover today. 让我们开始吧…… NVDA：数据稳健，基本符合买方预期……800亿美元回购……CPU抢尽风头。黄仁勋在电话会上如预期般乐观。 NVDA: Solid #s pretty much in line with buyside bogeys… $80Bbuyback…CPUs steal the show. Jensen bullish on the call asexpected. 第一季度营收816亿美元，市场预期为790亿美元；第二季度指引中点为910亿美元，市场预期为875亿美元。这两个数字基本都符合财报发布前的预期。毛利率也基本符合市场/买方预期。总体而言，买方预期数据并未真正上调，多数对CY26/CY27/CY28的预期仍维持在10美元/15美元/18-20美元，多空辩论没有太大变化。 Q1 Revs $81.6B vs Street at $79B and Q2 guided to $91B at themid point vs. street at $87.5B. Both #s pretty much inline withbogeys heading into the print. GMs also roughly inline with street/bogeys. Overall, buyside numbers not really moving up with moststill at $10/$15/$18-20 for CY26/CY27/CY28 and not much changesin the bull vs bear debate. 隔夜投资者热议的不是GPU，而是CPU，因为NVDA披露其Vera CPU今年的可见度达200亿美元（全部为独立Vera），并给出了CPU市场2000亿美元的总可寻址市场（TAM）数据，这将使其在销售CPU的第一年就成为最大的CPU制造商。 Big investor talk overnight wasn’t GPUs but CPUs as NVDAdisclosed they have $20B visibility for the Vera CPU this year (allstandalone Vera), and also gave an a $200bn TAM # for the CPUopportunity, which would make them the largest CPU maker inYear 1 of selling CPUs. 就传导效应而言，这对ARM是利好，尽管我们不清楚与Vera许可协议的具体数字。2000亿美元的TAM大于Lisa Su在AMD财报电话会上给出的1250亿美元，但AMD因担心市场份额流失而下跌2%（英特尔因类似担忧下跌3%）。 In terms of read-throughs, positive for ARM although we don’tknow the actual #s from licensing deal with Vera. The $200B TAMis > than the $125B Lisa Su threw out on AMD’s EPS call, but AMD-2% down on concerns of share loss (INTC -3% down on similarfears). 关键要点： Key Takeaways: - 第一季度数据中心营收为752.46亿美元，同比增长92%，环比增长21%，市场预期为735.04亿美元，其中计算业务环比增长约18%，同比增长约77%；网络业务环比增长约35%，同比增长约199%。网络业务单季度营收达到150亿美元，同比增速接近200%。超大规模客户贡献379亿美元，同比增长115%，环比增长12%；而ACIE贡献374亿美元，同比增长74%，环比增长31%。 - Q1 Data Center revenue was $75.246B, +92% y/y and +21% q/qvs Street $73.504B, with compute up ~18% q/q and ~77% y/y, andnetworking up ~35% q/q and ~199% y/y. Networking revenue hit$15 billion for the single quarter, with a yoy growth rate nearing200%. Hyperscale was $37.9B, +115% y/y and +12% q/q, whileACIE was $37.4B, +74% y/y and +31% q/q. - 管理层表示，Vera Rubin将于第三季度开始生产发货，并在第四季度加速放量，主要客户已准备就绪。 - Mgmt said Vera Rubin starts production shipments in Q3 andramps into Q4, with major customers already lined up. - 黄仁勋指出，尽管基于SRAM架构的语言处理器（LPU）在低延迟和高交互token速率方面具有优势，但其吞吐量、模型容量和上下文处理能力有限。长期来看，它们仍将是服务于特定高端token服务的小众产品，目前其市场份额远低于20%。 - Jensen pointed out that although SRAM-architecture-based LPs(LPUs) possess advantages in low latency and high interactivetoken rates, their throughput, model capacity, and contexthandling capabilities are limited. In the long run, they will remaina niche product for specific premium token services, with theircurrent market share being well below 20%. - 管理层认为，NVDA在推理领域的份额正在增加，尤其是在新增Anthropic并扩大对前沿实验室的覆