伊朗战争：对商业的影响

UpdateGlobal – 23 April 2026 The US and Iran are aggressively testing each other’s pain threshold just short of a resumption of war that neitherappears to want (though another round of fighting can’t be ruled out). Attacks and seizures of ships by both sides Business and economic impacts are multiplying differentlyacross regions of the world. Divisions within Iran’s leadershipbetween more pragmatic nationalists and ideological Islamists(on display during negotiations in Pakistan and in recentannouncements on the strait) make an agreement with 4.Strait reopens within two weeks: 3% (down from 7%last week)– The US and Iran agree to reopen the Strait ofHormuz with a level of certainty that reassures insurers,while other issues (Iran’s nuclear, proxy and missile •The authors believe this probability is understated and 5.US-China confrontation over Iran within twoweeks: 45% (up from 35% last week)– PresidentTrump and President Xi appear committed to stability inthe relationship ahead of their planned summit on May14-15. However, President Trump said an Iranian-flaggedship traveling from China that US forces intercepted wascarrying a “gift from China,” raising suspicions of military Ideal for international business would be a clear agreement toresume free and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz,while addressing other issues (nuclear, missiles, proxies andeconomic incentives for Iran) in a slower track. But that would Our five scenarios remain valid, but their probabilities haveshifted, providing insight into the war’s direction. Our partner VICO, an AI model that forecasts political, geopolitical andeconomic events, provided percentage probabilities for eachscenario; the authors have noted where we differ. We also offer Comparative Regional Analysis Instead of the sectoral analysis in our previous editions,this week we highlight the war’s differing regional impacts Asia 1.Status quo for the next two weeks: 29% (downfrom 38% last week)– The Strait of Hormuz remainsessentially closed by Iranian threats and the US blockadeon Iranian shipping. Negotiations may resume but without Beyond the Gulf, Asia has been most impacted, due toits reliance on Gulf crude, LNG and shipping.Japanisparticularly vulnerable, with an energy self-sufficiency ratioof only 13% and 90% reliance on crude oil that transits theStrait of Hormuz. Reduced supplies of naphtha in Japan areimpacting prices of surgical gloves and other medical supplies,with shortages possible in the near future. The Japanesegovernment has instituted fuel-saving policies and consumercompanies are reducing delivery frequencies. Japan hasreleased 20 days’ worth of oil supplies from its strategic •The authors believe this probability is understated and 2.War resumes within two weeks: 68% (up from 55%last week)– US and Israel resume attacks on Iran, andIran attacks Gulf energy and civilian targets within twoweeks, removing more oil and gas supply from global •The authors believe this probability is overstated and 3.Red Sea closes within two weeks: 29% (down from50% last week)– War escalates to include Houthis orIranians attacking shipping in the Red Sea, effectively ThePhilippines,VietnamandPakistan, as well as othercountries in South and Southeast Asia, are suffering extraordinaryfuel price increases directly impacting businesses; fertilizer anddiesel have become unaffordable for many farmers, threateningfood security. Many governments have implemented stringent Latin America Europe Europe has experienced a substantial industrial and consumerprice shock. TheEuropean Commissionhas outlined twoscenarios: first, a durable ceasefire, in which shipping routesreopen and prices stabilize within months, starting with jetfuel and diesel, but LNG markets remain constrained until2030 due to infrastructural damage in Qatar, and second, a Latin America is splitting along the familiar oil-exporter/importer line, but with an interesting overlay in how thefertilizer supply chain is quietly reshaping the region’sagribusiness outlook.Brazilimports roughly 85% of itsfertilizers, and Iran was the third-largest urea supplier in 2024. Brazil,Colombia,Guyana,Ecuador, andTrinidad andTobagobenefit marginally from higher energy prices. TheIMF’s latest World Economic Outlook projects Latin Americanand Caribbean growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with The International Energy Agency has warned that Europe hasabout six weeks of jet fuel stocks, though some estimatesextend that. Jet fuel prices have increased far more than oil,impacting passenger and air freight prices. Air cargo rates Venezuela, frequently cited as a beneficiary, is not inpractice. PDVSA’s collapsed operational capacity hindersscaling output in the short term. Higher prices help regimecash flow, not Venezuelan supply.Argentinais the genuinesupply story. Vaca Muerta combined with President Milei’s Beyond energy and transportation, European chemicals andenergy-intensive manufacturing have been se