1Q预览：预计超预期，宏观敏感性及AI成本/收益成焦点

1Q preview: Expecting a beat, macrosensitivity& AI costs/benefits in focus Reiterate Rating:BUY| PO:820.00 USD| Price:688.55 USD 20 April 2026 Expecting1Q beat; data suggests limited HC growthReports4/29. We est. 1Q Rev/EPS of $56.0bn/$7.44 vs Street $55.4bn/$6.64. Checks suggest 1Q ad spending broadly in line with advertiser expectations, with no materialspending pullbacks on ME conflict, and we are not changing estimates. We think Streetexpecting 1Q revenue at upper end of the guide (~$56.5bn). Data suggests 1Q expensediscipline, with job postings down 33% q/q and we expect another EPS beat. We seebiggest near-term risk as macro uncertainty impacting 2Q revenue guide, orincrementally higher capex for 2026 given AI focus and infrastructure cost inflation. Equity Expect2Q guide of $57.5-$60.5bn, unchanged expensesFor 2Q’26, we est. Rev/EPS of $60.1bn/$7.49 vs Street at $59.6bn/$7.12. Assuming 1Q Justin PostResearch AnalystBofAS+1 415 676 3547justin.post@bofa.com at the high end of the guide & noting a 6pt tougher 2Q comp. and macro uncertainty, weexpect 2Q outlook of $57.5-$60.5bn (+21-27%). We think Meta will leave its’26 expenserange unchanged but could have opportunity to lower its outlook in future if Reuters’report on significant layoffs (10% of workforce) in May are accurate. Given Meta’srecent capacity deals and layoff news, there is potential that infra investments are stillincreasing, & we see potential for Meta to raise the low end its of’26 Capex guide. Nitin Bansal, CFAResearch AnalystBofAS+1 415 676 3551nbansal7@bofa.com New Muse Spark model could help open product pipelineThe release of Muse Spark has helped clear an overhang from the stock, early data suggestsmeaningful improvement vs prior Meta models. We think new products builton top of the new LLM (and more advanced models to come) could enhance Meta AIquery results, automated messaging, AI assistant & agentic capabilities. Key for call iscommentary on new product pipeline and plans for Meta’s massive infrastructure build($145bn including neo clouds/Blue Owl), beyond core use cases and advertising models. Constructive on valuationand AI benefits; Reiterate Buy We think current valuationat 20x 2027 EPS underappreciates AI benefits for the core adbusiness and sentiment and stock performance from here can be driven by: 1) Ad rev.upside from LLM integration, 2) Greater visibility new products built on new LLM, 3) MuseSpark improvements toward frontier LLMs, & 4) potential cost initiatives around RL andother non-AI segments. We lower our PO to $820 (from $885) based on unchanged 2027EPS & lower 24x multiple (vs 26x) reflecting broader market multiple compression. IDFA: Identifier for AdvertisersDMA: Digital Markets ActDAP: Daily Active PeopleMAU: Monthly Active UserARPP: Average Revenue per PersonRL: Reality LabsIG: InstagramHC: HeadcountFB: FacebookTT: TikTokFX: Foreign ExchangeST: Sensor TowerAI: Artificial IntelligenceML: Machine LearningGen-AI: Generative AIFCF: Free cash flowConf.: ConfidenceYT: YouTubeFAI: Frontier AIROI: Return on InvestmentFTC: Federal Trade CommissionRL: Reality LabsNT: Near-term BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 16 to 18. Analyst Certification on page 14. PriceObjective Basis/Risk on page 14.12960747 iQprofileSMMeta Platforms Inc Company SectorInternet/e-Commerce Company Description MetaPlatforms is the largest social network with over 3billion monthly active users across its properties. Thecompany generates revenue from advertising andpayments, with over 95% of revenue from advertising.Meta's revenues are split at rough 50% in North America,and 50% in International markets. Investment Rationale Meta is an investment in increasing social and mobileInternet usage, and also offers exposure to the increasinguse of AI/ML technology and potential long-term Metaverseopportunity. With the new efficiency mentality, we believeMeta is positioned for strong EPS growth when advertisingenvironment improves. Stock Data 1Q’26 Key Metrics 1Q’26Key Metrics ($mn except per share basis) BofA vs Street Estimates We estimate 1Q’26 Revenue/EBITDA of $56.0bn/$33.9bn vs Street at $55.4bn/$31.0bnand GAAP EPS of $7.44 (vs Street at $6.64). We estimate 2Q’26 Rev/EPS of$60.1bn/$7.49 vs Street at $59.6bn/$7.12. For 2026, we estimate total revenues to grow 26% y/y to $254bn, above Street at$251bn, EBITDA of $149bn (vs Street $141bn), and GAAP EPS of $31.24 (vs Street$29.67). Primary driver of our higher EPS estimates is higher revenue growth. We have39% y/y expense growth for 2026 to $163bn, slightly below Street at $164bn andcompany’s guide of $162-$169bn. Our 2026 EPS includes as estimated ~$6.5 EP