2026斯坦福新兴技术评论：十项关键技术及其政策影响分析报告

THE STANFORD EMERGINGTECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2026 A Report on Ten Key Technologies and Their Policy Implications DIRECTOR AND EDITOR IN CHIEFHerbert S. Lin|MANAGING EDITOR Martin GilesCO-CHAIRSCondoleezza Rice, Jennifer Widom, and Amy Zegart THE STANFORD EMERGINGTECHNOLOGY REVIEW 2026 A Report on Ten Key Technologies and Their Policy Implications CO-CHAIRSCondoleezza RiceJennifer WidomAmy Zegart DIRECTOR AND EDITOR IN CHIEFHerbert S. Lin MANAGING EDITORMartin Giles Stanford UniversityStanford, California CONTENTS 01Artificial Intelligence 23 FOREWORD4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY12 02Biotechnology and SyntheticBiology39 11Crosscutting Themes andCommonalities184 12Technology Applications byPolicy Area210 Economic Growth210National Security211Environmental and EnergySustainability213Health and Medicine215Civil Society216 Governance and Geopolitics of EmergingTechnology185Innovation Pathways and Paterns ofProgress188Human Capital and KnowledgeEcosystems195Infrastructure for Innovation203 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS224 FOREWORD This edition of the StanfordEmerging TechnologyReview(SETR) coincides with the 250th anniversaryof America’s Declaration of Independence. As welook toward the future, the past reminds us that his-tory takes surprising turns and that human agencycan be powerful. In 1776, few could have dreamedthat a ragtag band of colonists in a backwater farfrom Europe would defeat a great power, replace aking with an extraordinary experiment in democracy,and ultimately become the technological envy ofthe world. What looked impossible two and a halfcenturies ago seems inevitable now. Bold ideas anddetermined action made all the difference. Now more than ever, understanding the landscapeof discovery and how to harness technology to forgea better future requires working across sectors, felds,and generations. Engineers and executives need tobetter understand the policy world to anticipate howtheir decisions could generate geopolitical advan-tages and vulnerabilities, and how they can seizeopportunities while mitigating risks to the nation.Government leaders need to better understand theacademic and business worlds so that well-intendedpolicies don’t end up exacerbating societal harms ordampening America’s innovation leadership and thegeopolitical advantages that come with it. And bothgovernment and industry need to better understandthe foundational role that America’s research univer-sities play in the ecosystem that has made the UnitedStates the world’s innovation leader since 1945—and how that model is now weakening at homewhile China is racing to copy it. Today, we face a hinge of history moment wheretechnologicaldiscoveries are supercharging bothpossibility and risk at dizzying speed. This emerg-ing world is hard to understand and even harder toanticipate. But this much seems clear: The choicesmade today, in everywhere from labs to legislatures,are likely to have consequences for generations.Artifcial intelligence (AI) is poised to transform sci-entifc discovery, the future of work, the future of war,and more. And AI is not alone. From nanomaterialsthat are ffty thousand times smaller than the widthof a human hair to commercial satellites and otherprivate-sector technologies deployed in outer space,breakthroughs are reshaping markets, societies, andgeopolitics. This is a convergence moment: Neverhave so many technologies changed so much so fast. The Stanford Emerging Technology Review (SETR)initiativeis the frst-ever collaboration betweenStanfordUniversity’s School of Engineering,theHooverInstitution,and Stanford’s Institute forHuman-Centered Artifcial Intelligence. We launchedthis effort with an ambitious goal: transforming tech-nology education for decision makers in both thepublic and private sectors so that the United Statescan seize opportunities, mitigate risks, and ensurethe American innovation ecosystem continues tothrive. In this era, US technology policy is no longer theunique province of government that it used to be.Federal and state offcials are struggling to keep upwith technological advances and their implications.At the same time, inventors and investors are strug-glingto reconcile commercial opportunities andnational interests in a world where technology, eco-nomics, and geopolitics have become inseparable. This is our third annual report surveying the state often key emerging technologies and their implica-tions. It harnesses the expertise of leading faculty inscience and engineering felds, economics, interna-tional relations, and history to identify key techno-logical developments, assess potential implications,and highlight what policymakers should know. This report is our fagship product, but it is just oneelement of our continuous technology educationcampaign for policymakers that now involves morethan one hundred Stanford scholars across fortydepartmentsand research institutes.In the pastyear, SETR experts have briefed senior leaders in theprivate sector and across the US government—