2025-26年德国主要区域房地产市场报告：办公与零售地产市场新常态（英）

New realities for office and retail markets TABLE OF CONTENTS 02Preface 03Office and retail: Structural change progressing06Office market16Retail market 26Augsburg28Berlin30Bremen32Cologne34Darmstadt37Dresden39Düsseldorf41Essen43Frankfurt45Hamburg47Hannover49Karlsruhe52Leipzig54Mainz57Mannheim59Munich61Münster63Nuremberg66Stuttgart69Overview of locations71Glossary72Imprint76DZ HYP locations PREFACE Dear readers, Real estate markets in Germany continue to be shaped by the broader economicenvironment, high interest rates and political developments. The close link betweenoffice and retail segments and the country’s economic performance is particularlyapparent. At the same time, both asset classes are undergoing structural transforma-tion – a challenging process that also creates opportunities. Our study examines currenttrends in the office and retail markets across twelve main regional centres – Augsburg,Bremen, Darmstadt, Dresden, Essen, Hanover, Karlsruhe, Leipzig, Mannheim, Mainz,Münster and Nuremberg – and compares them with developments in Germany’s sevenmajor cities. On the office market, hybrid working models are driving demand for smaller but higher-quality spaces. Prime rents in top locations are continuing to rise, while regional centresshaped by small and medium-sized enterprises are seeing less momentum. The retailsegment is experiencing even more far-reaching change, with businesses closing andvacancies rising in many city centres causing prime rents to fall noticeably, albeit at afar slower rate than before. However, these developments also open up opportunitiesfor inspiring and innovative new concepts. In the major cities, steady populationgrowth and a thriving tourism sector to provide a more stable environment. As one of the leading real estate banks in Germany, we regularly analyse the marketswe actively cover. “Main Regional Real Estate Markets 2025 | 2026” is intended as asupplement to “Real Estate Market Germany”, our series of specialist publicationsreleased every spring. We also analyse the commercial real estate markets in individualGerman federal states. A report on Berlin and the Eastern German federal states willbe published in November. For more information on our market research, please visit our website athttps://www.dzhyp.de/en/about-us/market-research/. Yours sincerely, DZ HYP October 2025 OFFICE AND RETAIL: STRUCTURAL CHANGE PROGRESSING The German Economic Institute describes structural change as a “significant shift inthe economic structure”. This tends to be mainly associated with the closure of steelworks and the phasing-out of coal mining. However, the property market is alsoheavily impacted, particularly in the office and retail segments which are the focus of thisreport. Mobile working and e-commerce are not the only factors that have led to a majorshift in both quantitative and qualitative demand for these types of commercialproperties, leading to the “decommissioning” of office buildings and department stores.Vacant properties will always be a feature of the real estate market because supplycannot be adjusted immediately to meet shifts in demand. However, vacancy rates whichare increasingly caused by structural shifts do not disappear when the economy picks upagain.Structural change impactscommercial real estate market The associated adjustment processes are aggravated by a challenging environment.The difference compared to the “golden decade” for the property market with its lowinterest rates, high levels of investor interest, and dynamic growth in property prices,could scarcely be greater. The pandemic, the war in Ukraine, demographics, climatechange, inflation and the US tariff chaos are producing strong headwinds for the propertymarket, which is now having to absorb much higher construction and financing costs,lower demand due to recession, rising unemployment, and consumer restraint.Adverse conditions for real estatemake adjustment process moredifficult Source: vdp Source: CBRE, bulwiengesa Source: Federal Employment Agency Despite adverse conditions, after the market correction caused by the rise in interestrates, valuations of both residential and commercial properties have clearly risenagain. However, in contrast to the upturn in residential property driven by a supplyshortage, the recovery in commercial property is fragile as investors remain cautious.Investment in previously sought-after offices has fallen particularly sharply. Rental yieldsare stable after rising since the end of 2023. However, the divergence from ten-yearsovereign bonds, which was more than 400 basis points in 2016, has more than halvedand is clearly not attractive enough – also on the basis of the economic environment.Commercial property valuations alsoslightly positive again In addition to investment, new construction has also fallen sharply. Although thenumber of building permits has stopped falling, the time lag in construction meansthat the supply of apartments and