全球经济状况调查：2026年第一季度

Global accountants’ confidence close to record lows amid heighteneduncertainty and rising costs. The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggested that confidence among globalaccountants fell sharply in Q1 2026 (see Chart 1). ■Confidence among accountants and finance professionals globally falls close to pandemic-era lows, with cost pressures rising near to the series highs set inthe aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Sentiment is at its third-lowest ever, only previously weaker at thebeginning of the pandemic in Q1 and Q2 2020. The survey wasconducted between 3 and 19 March and hence the outbreak ofhostilities in the Middle East will have been a major factor weighing ■There were improvements, however, in the GlobalNew Orders and Employment indices, likely owingto the resilience of global growth ahead of the onset Indeed, ‘International and geopolitical instability’ jumped to the topof the list of surveyed accountants’ risk priorities (see‘Geopolitics ■Enormous uncertainty clouds the global economy,with developments in the Middle East likely to be reshapes risk landscape for accountants’below). The depressed level of confidence clearly makes for sobering reading, althoughit is worth noting that the index is broadly similar to its level in Q12025, after a sharp decline in the aftermath of the US presidentialelection. There was a particularly sharp fall in confidence among ■‘International and geopolitical instability’ accountants’ risk priorities in Q1, for only thesecond time since the global risks survey was added ‘Despite a fall in confidence to a very low level inQ1, there were improvements in the Global NewOrders and Employment indices.’ The message emanating from some of our other key indicatorswas a bit more encouraging (seeChart 1). After previously hitting a post-pandemic low in Q4 2025, the forward-looking GlobalNew Orders Index registered a solid increase in Q1. It is now atits historical average1level and broadly in the centre of the rangeof readings recorded since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion ofUkraine. The Global Employment Index, which captures the hiringand firing decisions of firms, also improved somewhat, whileremaining below its historical average. Meanwhile, there was avery small fall in the Global Capital Expenditure Index. It remains The resilience of some of our key indicators is likely owing tothe fact that the global economy was in relatively decent shapebefore the recent developments in the Middle East, amid thecurrent global artificial intelligence (AI) boom, favourable globalfinancial conditions and fiscal easing in a number of major ‘Confidence among CFOs fell very sharply in Q1and is significantly below its historical average.’ ‘The proportion of global accountants reportingincreased operating costs rose by five percentage points in Q1 and is now close to its historical highin Q3 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.’ Regarding price pressures facing firms, the proportion ofaccountants globally reporting ‘increased costs’ rose by fivepercentage points in Q1 2026. Among survey respondents, 69%reported increased operating costs, well above the 48% medianreading over the survey history, and close to the series all-time peak Developments in the Middle East will be key in determining theextent of additional cost pressures facing firms over comingmonths and quarters. Around 20% of global oil production andliquefied natural gas exports usually transit through the Strait ofHormuz, which has been largely blocked since the recent onset Cost pressures were already elevated in Q4 2025, and the furtherrise likely reflects some of the early impacts from the surge in theprices of energy and other commodities since the outbreak ofhostilities in the Middle East. Among surveyed CFOs, the proportion suppliers rose quite meaningfully and are above their historicalaverage (seeChart 5). In our other early indicators of corporate stress, global problems accessing finance eased slightly in Q1and remain below the series average (seeChart 6), while the proportion of firms reporting problems securing prompt paymentincreased modestly but is still just below its historical average. The Middle East is also a crucial source of global productionfor fertilisers, whose price has soared since the onset of theconflict. On top of the relatively immediate impact on food pricesfrom higher energy costs, the rise in fertiliser prices (if sustained)is likely to further push up global food price inflation over comingquarters. The region is also an important source of productionfor petrochemicals, aluminium, sulphur, bromine, and helium, Both of our closely watched ‘Fear’ indices deteriorated in Q12026. Concerns globally among accountants that customersmight go out of business rose for the third consecutive quarter.While such concerns are well below pandemic-era peaks, they ‘Cost pressures eased slightly in Q1 2026according to CFOs but remain on the high ‘Conc