塑造终身学习的未来：2040年政策图景 (英文版)

Shaping the futureof lifelong learning:policy scenariosfor 2040 Transparency and transferabilityof learning outcomes Shaping the future of lifelonglearning: policy scenarios for2040 Transparency and transferability oflearning outcomes Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2026 Please cite this publication as:Cedefop. (2026).Shaping the future of lifelong learning: policy scenarios for 2040.Transparency and transferability of learning outcomes.Cedefop research paper.Publications Office of the European Union.http://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/7473761 A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the internet. Itcan be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2026 © Cedefop, 2026 Unless otherwise noted, the reuse of this document is authorised under theCreativeCommons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)licence. This means that reuse isallowed, provided appropriate credit is given and any changes made are indicated. For anyuse or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by Cedefop, permissionmust be sought directly from the copyright holders. PDFISBN 978-92-896-3932-3ISSN 1831-5860Doi:10.2801/7206784TI-01-26-011-EN-N TheEuropean Centre for the Development of Vocational Training(Cedefop) is the European Union’s reference centre for vocationaleducation and training, skills and qualifications. Weprovide information, research, analyses and evidence onvocational education and training, skills and qualificationsfor policymaking in the EU Member States.Cedefop was originally established in 1975 by Council Regulation(EEC) No 337/75. This decision was repealed in 2019 byRegulation (EU) 2019/128 establishing Cedefop as a European UnionAgency with a renewed mandate. Table of Contents Foreword……………………………………………….……………...…………1Acknowledgements .................................................................................... 2Tables, figures and boxes .......................................................................... 7Executive summary.................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1. Introduction............................................................................ 9 1.1.Overarching approach.............................................................................. 101.1.1.Scenario development approach .................................................. 101.1.2.Path dependency.......................................................................... 111.1.3.Systems thinking........................................................................... 121.1.4.Context sensitivity......................................................................... 121.1.5.Design thinking ............................................................................. 121.2.Methodological implementation ................................................................ 131.2.1.Task 1: literature review................................................................ 141.2.2.Task 2: quasi-Delphi panel............................................................ 151.2.3.Task 3: scenario development: axes, indicators, narratives .......... 171.2.4.Task 4: scenario validation workshops.......................................... 181.3.Scenario-related limitations ...................................................................... 201.4.Report structure ....................................................................................... 21 Chapter 2. Trends and drivers related to the transparency andtransferability of learning outcomes .............................................. 22 2.1.Introduction .............................................................................................. 222.1.1.Identifying key trends: the ‘inside-out’ path-dependent aspect ofbuilding scenarios .................................................................................... 222.1.2.‘Outside-in’: the relevance of STEEP drivers ................................ 242.1.3.The remainder of this chapter ....................................................... 262.2.Trend 1: towards common quality assurance frameworks ........................ 262.3.Trend 2: increased opportunities to transfer learning outcomes using creditsystems.................................................................................................... 29 2.4.Trend 3: more consistent and comparable overviews of all types, levels andlearning outcomes of qualifications........................................................... 332.5.Trend 4: increased opportunities to validate learning outcomes ............... 362.6.Trend 5: increased opportunities to store and build up a digital portfolio oflearning achievements ............................................................................. 392.7.Trend 6: increased portability of qualifications and learning outcomes acrossbo