您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [伯恩斯坦]:亚洲新兴机器人:晴雨表(2026年2月/3月) - 发现报告

亚洲新兴机器人:晴雨表(2026年2月/3月)

机械设备 2026-03-31 - 伯恩斯坦 李辰
报告封面

Asia Emerging Robotics: The Barometer (February/March 2026) In this note, we update the key events in humanoid robot industry, market sentiment, andimportant data points in Feb&Mar 2026. Readers can download the complete barometerdataset here: Asia Emerging Robotics Barometer. Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Key events. For Chinese players, Unitree released its IPO prospectus in March, aimingfor a listing on Shanghai’s STAR Board. Xiaomi has become more active by showcasing ademonstration of humanoid robot working in a car plant, and a new dexterous hand withhuman-like touch and a cooling system. On Mar 30, AgiBot announced it has cumulativelymass-produced 10,000 humanoid robots (up from the 5,000-unit milestone reached onDec 8 last year). For Western players, Tesla did not unveil its Optimus Gen 3 in 1Q26 asexpected. Hyundai announced that it will bring Boston Dynamics’ robots to the 2026 FIFAWorld Cup, a potential new catalyst to watch in Jun 2026. On Mar 25, Figure AI’s robotaccompanied First Lady Melania Trump at a White House summit, a meaningful step towardbroader public accessibility. Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Market Sentiment. Sentiment toward humanoid robots weakened in March, mainly dueto the decreasing likelihood of Tesla unveiling Optimus Gen 3 in 1Q26 and heightenedgeopolitical tensions that pushed investors into a risk-off stance. Whether or not Tesla hitsthe expected timeline, the launch is inevitable, and a solid demonstration of Optimus Gen 3(here) would be a positive catalyst for the sector. Monthly datathat underpins the fundamentals of the companies within our coverage. Toexclude the impact of CNY, we use the aggregated numbers for Jan&Feb 2026. •Shuanghuan: China xEV wholesales volume -8% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026 (+4% YoY inDec 2025); China robotic vacuum sales volume -12% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026 (-23% YoYin Dec 2025); China industrial robot production volume +31% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026(+15% YoY in Dec 2025); •Hesai: Shipment volume of Hesai’s long-range ADAS LiDAR +207% YoY in Jan&Feb2026 (+232% YoY in Dec 2025); Hesai’s market share remained intact, i.e. 49% inJan&Feb 2026. Our comments on Hesai’s 2025 full-year results: here. •Tuopu: China xEV wholesales volume -8% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026 (+4% YoY in Dec2025); Shipment volume of Tuopu’s air suspension +162% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026(+209% YoY in Dec 2025). Our comments on Tuopu’s 2025 full-year results: here. •Sanhua: China xEV wholesales volume -8% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026 (+4% YoY in Dec2025); China domestic sales and export volume of air conditioners -3% YoY in Jan&Feb2026 (-19% YoY in Dec 2025) and the volume was expected to -5% YoY in 1Q26 and0% YoY in 2Q26 (based on production plan); Raw material prices remained high in March2026, with copper +26% YoY and aluminum +19% YoY; Our comments on Sanhua’s2025 full-year results: here. •Leader Drive: China industrial robot production volume +31% YoY in Jan&Feb 2026(+15% YoY in Dec 2025). DETAILS EXHIBIT 2:Tuopu: Valuation premium attributed to Tesla & humanoid robots EXHIBIT 3:Sanhua: Valuation premium attributed to Tesla & humanoid robots EXHIBIT 5:Production volume of industrial robots in China EXHIBIT 11:Tuopu’s air suspension volume and market share EXHIBIT 16:Raw material price: Gear steel INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Shuanghuan, Hesai and Tuopu Outperform, Sanhua Market-Perform and Leader Drive Underperform. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Hesai Group We use DCF as the primary valuation method. We set target prices at USD 32.0 and HKD 249.0 for its ADR and H-Share,respectively, based on WACC of 8.3% and terminal growth rate of 3.0%, respectively. They reflect our long term forecast of thecompany’s existing core business and rising contribution from robotics. We use PE method as a reference, with our target priceimplies a 36x forward PE at end-2026.